Category: Risk

AI – A Golden Age or a new Dark Age?

Posted on by The Information Badger in AI & Robotics, Automation, Change, Digital Transformation, Ethics & Regulation, Information Technology, Intelligent machines, Life, Risk, Technology

The Badger’s experimented with Microsoft’s Copilot for a while now, sometimes impressed, but often irritated when the tool ends its answer to a question by asking the user’s opinion on the underlying topic of the question. For example, the Badger asked Copilot ‘When will self-driving cars be the majority of vehicles in the UK?’  Copilot’s answer was sensible and distilled from quoted sources, but it ended with ‘What are your thoughts on self-driving cars? Do you think they’ll revolutionize transportation?’. The Badger wanted an answer to his question, not a conversation that will capture, store, and use his opinion for the tool’s own purpose. Responding with ‘None of your business’ gets the reply ‘Got it! If you have any other questions or need assistance with something else, feel free to ask. I’m here to help’. That last phrase should be supplemented with ‘and make money!

Overall, his experimentation has made him wonder if AI is leading to a new Golden Age for humanity, or a new Dark Age. So, what’s the answer? A new Golden Age, or a worrying Dark Age? AI and Machine Intelligence advocates, giant businesses investing huge amounts of money in the technology, and even governments with a ‘fear of missing out’, are quick to say it’s the former. The Nobel Laureate Geoffrey Hinton, the godfather of AI, isn’t so sure. He articulates the risks well, and he’s highlighted that the ability of AI to eventually wipe out humanity isn’t inconceivable. Listening to him interviewed recently on the Today programme, BBC Radio 4’s flagship news and current affairs programme, struck a chord. It made the Badger realise that such concerns are valid, and that a Dark Age is a possibility.

So where does the Badger stand on the Golden or Dark Age question? Well, the last 25 years has made us believe tech-driven change is a good thing, but that premise should be challenged. New technology may drive change, but it doesn’t necessarily drive progress because it’s politics that really determines whether change makes people better off overall. Politicians, however, have struggled woefully to deal with tech-driven change and the new problems it’s created for society so far this century. There’s little sign this is changing for AI. Humans are fallible and can make poor judgements, but if we become reliant on AI to make choices for us, then there’s a real danger that our confidence and capacity to make our own independent decisions will be lost.

The Badger’s answer is thus nuanced. A Golden Age will unfold in areas where AI is a tool providing a tangible benefit under direct human control, but if AI is allowed to become completely autonomous and more intelligent than humans, then a Dark Age is inevitable. Why? Because things with greater overall intelligence always control things of lower overall intelligence. Can you think of an example where the reverse is true?

2025 – A year of ‘Strain and Change’…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Information Technology, Leadership, Life, Opinion, Public Institutions, Risk, Technology, Transformation

The festive season is over, and most people are once again embroiled in the routine of normal life. Many start the year mentally refreshed, physically rested, and game for the next challenge, but some do not. And there’s the rub, to use an idiom from Shakespeare, because those starting the year unprepared for a challenge will surely find this year difficult. Why’s that, especially when every year presents challenges that must be dealt with? Well, the omens for 2025 suggest it’s going to be a particularly testing one across a broad range of fronts. As a relative put it over the holiday period, the world order’s changing fast, there’s disgruntlement with political leaders, AI and disruptive advances in digital tech driven by huge corporations continue unabated, retrenchment from the globalisation that’s been a norm for years  is underway, and so ‘Strain and Change’ will be everywhere in 2025.   Those stepping back into life’s rhythms expecting the status quo and unprepared for challenges are thus likely in for a rude awakening.

With this in mind, the Badger found himself chuckling as he read what the BBC’s Tomorrow’s World TV programme predicted in 1995 for 2025. When Professor Stephen Hawking told that programme that ‘Some of these changes are very exciting, and some are alarming. The one thing we can be sure of is that it will be very different, and probably not what we expect’, little did he (or the Badger) know that the Badger’s last post for 2024 would echo the same sentiment! The Badger started wondering what advice Professor Hawking, who produced many pearls of wisdom, might have given us at the start of a year of ‘Change and Strain’. After a little research, the Badger decided he would simply concatenate two of his memorable pearls of wisdom to say:

‘It is very important for young people to keep their sense of wonder and keep asking why. It’s a crazy world out there. Be curious. However difficult life may seem, there is always something you can do and succeed at’.

This seems apt in many ways, but especially for today’s always on, social media dominated, digital world where Hawking’s sentiment can be expressed as  ‘Don’t take anything you read, watch, or hear at face value. Be curious, ask questions, and always believe that you can take action to better your situation’. The Badger thinks that ‘Strain and Change’ is the drumbeat of 2025 technologically, nationally, geopolitically, commercially, and economically. Accordingly, whatever challenges lay ahead, they must be faced with the mindset embodied in Professor Hawking’s concatenated words above. As for the Badger? Well, he’s motivated, refreshed, and well prepared. The only status quo he’s anticipating in 2025 is the continuation of timeless, good, vintage music of which ’Living on an Island’ is a good example…

‘A crisis’ – the name for a group of dysfunctional experts.

Posted on by The Information Badger in Business, Consulting, Delivery, Information Technology, IT Project Management, Leadership & Management, Risk, Software, Systems Integration

Many years ago, the Badger took a late morning phone call from his boss asking him to pop into his office for a chat. A reason for the chat wasn’t mentioned, and so it was with a little trepidation that the Badger took the lift to the floor where his boss’s office was located. On approaching, the Badger saw his boss through the open door with elbows on the desk, head in hands, looking morose. Sensing the Badger’s arrival, his boss sat back, smiled, asked for the door to be closed and waved the Badger to a seat.

‘What’s the collective noun for a bunch of experts responsible for designing a huge software intensive system on a fixed-price contract?’ the Badger was asked in a relaxed manner. His boss didn’t wait for an answer. ‘A crisis’, they said with irritation and a flourish of colourful language that would cause apoplexy today. They explained that this answer derived from problems on a multi-tens of million pounds, fixed-price IT development project with a dysfunctional Design Authority (DA) team. This team, apparently, was full of acknowledged experts who seemed incapable of agreeing or deciding anything that was crucial to the progress of the overall project team’s software developers. At the start of the project line management had apparently insisted on staffing the DA team with experts who’d been between assignments and non-revenue earning for some time. The Badger’s boss admitted that, in hindsight, it hadn’t been wise to allow this to trump an individual’s technical and personal suitability for the project.

The Badger was then asked to sort this out and get the project back on track! He joined the project with an open mind and quickly assessed the situation. There were some leadership and management dynamics to adjust, but the DA team was indeed the key problem. Its members were all respected experts with specialist knowledge, but each was focused on expanding and protecting their expertise rather than the big picture and the project’s fixed price delivery. Teamwork, within the Design Authority itself and with the rest of the project, was poor. Experts can add enormous value to any team if used correctly, and so the Badger carefully considered how to rectify the situation. He repopulated the Design Authority with good people drawn from other parts of the project. The experts were released to their home units to be used a couple of days a month for consultancy if required by the new DA team. The experts and their line managers grumbled, but the project went forward to success.

The point of this tale? Simply to highlight that experts who keep their egos in check, never lose sight of the big picture, and have both specialist knowledge and the personal characteristics for teamwork, are valuable assets on tough delivery projects. Those that don’t have all of these attributes are more suited to short term specialist consultancy…

The price for being a Digital Citizen…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Digital Transformation, Information Technology, Life, Online Safety, Online Services, Privacy and Surveillance, Risk, Security, social media, Tech for social good

The vast majority of people are now ‘digital citizens’. There are many definitions of what being a digital citizen means, but the Badger thinks the term simply describes anyone who regularly uses the internet, online services, and IT to engage with social society, business, work, politics, and government. Becoming a digital citizen, in the Badger’s view, starts when any individual acquires an email address and then shares information online, uses e-commerce to buy merchandise, uses any other online service, or simply browses the internet. Everyone reading this is a digital citizen.

The Badger’s been a digital citizen for more years than he cares to admit to, but over the last decade he’s become circumspect and increasingly alarmed by the deterioration in responsible use of online technology and the internet by individuals and organisations. Yesterday the Badger helped an elderly neighbour carry their shopping bags the last few metres to their doorstep and was invited in for a quick cup of tea as a thank you. During the ensuing conversation, the Badger’s neighbour, a sharp 85-year-old ex-civil servant, mentioned they were a digital agnostic who strongly believed that the digital world has produced a surveillance society. They have a point, especially when you consider the following.

Supermarkets know what we purchase and when from our online transactions and use of debit and loyalty cards. They use this data for their business and to market products to us via, for example, voucher and loyalty point schemes. They don’t sell the data to others, but its theft by bad actors via security breaches can never be ruled out. The same is true for other retail companies. And then there’s the online giants like Amazon, Google, and Meta et al who capture so much data about our interests, behaviours, and habits that they often know more about a person than the person knows about themselves. All of this coupled with the fact that energy, transport, banking, central and local government functions are now also ‘online first’,  just reinforces the fact that the data describing our personal lives is in the digital ether and can be used for purposes which are invisible to most people.

Putting this together holistically with the fact that the UK has one of the highest densities of CCTV cameras amongst Western countries, with approximately 1 camera for every 13 people, it’s difficult to deny that the digital world has produced a surveillance society in barely 25 years. The price for being a digital citizen is thus personal acceptance of more and more surveillance. But here’s an interesting thought to end this musing with. Digital citizens are not just victims of surveillance, they are perpetrators too! Anyone who has checked out others using social media or internet searches has essentially engaged in surveillance. The digital world has thus made us all spies…

History suggests that a future generation will face a ‘Digital Crisis’…

Posted on by The Information Badger in AI & Robotics, Automation, Digital Transformation, Ethics & Regulation, Information Technology, Internet, Life, Online Services, Risk, social media, Transformation

Spanish philosopher George Santayana is credited with saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it’, and Karl Marx remarked that ‘History repeats itself first as a tragedy, and then as a farce’. These came to mind while quietly musing on a future which is in the hands of younger generations who’ve grown up with global communication, the internet, social media, and online services as a norm. It’s sobering to be reminded that in just a few decades, digital technology and IT has transformed life faster than at any time in human history. AI adds to the unabated momentum of tech-driven change. But here’s the thing. History shows that many things that have a transformational impact on society have serious consequences that only become fully apparent decades later, creating a crisis for society that a future generation is forced to address. History thus implies that a future generation will have to deal with a crisis caused by the digital revolution.

Bold thinking? Maybe, but consider this. History shows that motor vehicles revolutionised transportation. It’s only in recent decades, however, that society has realised, and started addressing, the true impact of motor vehicles on public health and the planet. History also shows that the use of fossil fuels (particularly coal) during the Industrial Revolution transformed the world. Our dependence on them since, however, has impacted the climate and sustainability of life forcing society into corrective action, but only in recent decades. Similarly, plastic – a material that’s made the modern world possible – has gone from being a wonder substance a century ago to being reviled as an environmental scourge today. It therefore seems perfectly feasible that history will repeat itself with regard to the digital revolution we are living through.

Falling happiness in younger generations (see here, for example) and a tense interview with Elon Musk , who remarked that ‘moderation is a propaganda word for censorship’, illustrate that history may well repeat itself regarding social media. Social media platforms have revolutionised information sharing over two decades, but amplifying misinformation, disinformation, bullying, mental health issues, and eroding personal privacy in the process. They are commercial enterprises bound by the law, but they set their own rules and guidelines for content and its moderation. When a US Surgeon General says allowing young people to use social media is like giving them medicine not proven to be safe, and that it’s insane that governments have failed to adequately regulate them, then society has a problem regardless of Mr Musk’s dislike of challenging scrutiny. History means that society today is having to face up to a ‘Climate Crisis’. Taking note of history is always wise, which is why it’s not outlandish to think that a future generation will face and need to address some kind of existential ‘Digital Crisis’ …  

Systems failure? keep calm and carry on…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Business Continuity, Information Technology, Life, Online Services, Risk, Service

Fred (not his real name), an 80-year-old retired civil servant, walks past every morning on his way to the local supermarket for a newspaper. He does this regardless of the weather. Fred walks slower on his way back because the round trip to the supermarket is the limit of what he can manage in one go. On his return leg, therefore, Fred and the Badger often chat if the opportunity arises. Fred has a passion for modern history, current affairs, financial markets, and public service, and while he may be slowing up physically, his mind remains sharp, informed, and impressively analytical. Our conversations are always enjoyable and enlightening.

On Sunday, we had one such chat. Fred knows the Badger’s background is in IT and so he asked about the previous day’s delivery order and contactless payment problems at a well-known UK supermarket chain. ‘In IT there’s always going to be unexpected failures due to software defects, hardware and system problems, human error,  or any combination of the three’, the Badger answered benignly. ‘Didn’t affect me; a good old-fashioned visit to the supermarket and cash will always be my preference’, Fred responded, adding that it didn’t reflect well on the state of society when shrill hysteria and blame floods social media and the news whenever there’s an outage of online services. Fred thinks people take online services for granted and have lost the ‘keep calm and carry on’ spirit that’s normally a strength of the British character! Whether you agree or not, it’s an understandable point of view.

The conversation moved on when Fred mentioned that he’d been reading books about Mr Putin, cyber security, and artificial intelligence. He reckons humanity’s future is bleak, not because of technology, AI, or cyber warfare, but because younger digital-native generations are already slaves to algorithms, aren’t interested in facts and share comments before thinking, have a first response to everything which is a search for blame, and are too willingly ‘followers of the herd’! Again, it’s an understandable point of view. Fred added that Mr Putin doesn’t really need sophisticated cyber tools or AI. He just needs his supporters in key IT roles in some supermarkets, banks, fulfilment and distribution companies, energy suppliers, and network providers to coordinate a simultaneous ‘human error’ moment when making changes to systems! Fred thinks this would cause national mayhem.

Fred’s an interesting guy whose views are shaped by his eight decades of life and what he sees, hears, and reads on a daily basis. Our conversation reminded the Badger that he learned early in his IT career that systems will fail, often in unexpected ways, at an inconvenient time, and disruptively. When they do, it’s important for everyone to ‘keep calm and carry on’. Sadly, calm, patience, and individual resilience seems to be in increasingly short supply in our digital-dominated world…

A first-time Project Manager and scrutiny…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Delivery, Information Technology, IT Project Management, Leadership & Management, Processes and Practices, Project Management, Risk, Training

In times or yore, a young Badger was appointed to lead a new project developing software for an important client. It was his first time as a Project Manager! After six months, however, the Badger seriously doubted his suitability for the role. The initial enthusiasm, excitement, personal glow and motivation from knowing that your boss believes you have what it takes to be a Project Manager had been replaced by gloomy self-doubt. The project was on track, the team members was working well, and the client was happy, so what was the problem? Put simply, the Badger felt bogged-down with – in his view – unnecessary company bureaucracy and intrusion that encroached more and more on the time to lead the project.

In those days, all company employees had ‘a counsellor’, an experienced person outside the employee’s immediate chain of command, who acted as both a mentor and an independent performance appraiser. Employees met their counsellor formally twice a year, and one such meeting happened to be around six months after the start of the Badger’s project. At this meeting, the Badger shared his bureaucracy and intrusion misgivings and whether he was suited to a Project Management career path. His counsellor chuckled and said ‘Everyone initially struggles with scrutiny in their first leadership role because no one likes to be scrutinised. First-time project managers often underestimate the scrutiny that goes with the job!’ The counsellor was right. What the Badger labelled as unnecessary company bureaucracy and intrusion was largely the scrutiny that‘s part of good corporate governance and operational control.

The counsellor emphasised that embracing scrutiny was important because it builds trust and provides assurance that nothing is being hidden, whereas resisting it creates suspicion, distrust, and even more scrutiny! As an aside, they observed that the level of company scrutiny experienced can be a qualitative indicator of a company’s health, because the absence of it implies anarchy and ultimately company failure. Overbearing scrutiny of everything all of the time, on the other hand, suggests organisational constipation, risk aversion, stifled creativity, and likely underperformance compared with rivals in the market. The counsellor concluded with ‘As a Project Manager, you are actively managing your client and your team, but you must also actively manage your company scrutineers and their agendas’. Over subsequent years as a Project Manager that is exactly what the Badger did!

The Badger’s IT delivery career eventually took him into a senior, company-wide, delivery and business role that included being a scrutineer! Most of the first-time Project Managers he encountered as a scrutineer were better trained and supported and embraced scrutiny positively. Experiencing them trying to influence and manage the Badger was always fun, because when you’ve been in delivery for decades you know all the Project Manager’s angles and how not to be defected from your agenda!

It takes more than a job title to be good in a crisis…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Business Continuity, Information Technology, Leadership & Management, Risk

Crises can take many forms and happen quickly. They are inevitable at some stage for any organisation. They can be triggered by internal or external factors. Examples of the former are delivery difficulties on a crucial major project, bad decisions by corporate, subsidiary, or business unit leaders, and merger or acquisition integrations that go off the rails. Examples of external factors include a key client organisation collapsing, international turmoil, military conflicts, and disasters involving wind, fire, flood, earthquake, or pestilence. The Badger had some responsibility for crisis management during his IT industry career, which meant he learned a lot about the behaviour of senior people in emergency and crisis situations. In particular, he learned that some in senior leadership positions with impressive job titles, who one would assume are used to high-pressure situations, in fact struggle to be good in a crisis!

The recent volcanic eruption in Iceland reminded the Badger of dealing with the response to the ash cloud from the Eyjafjallajokull eruption in April 2010.  The ash created havoc by closing European airspace for five days. Many of his organisation’s key leaders, managers, and technical staff were stranded outside the UK unable to return to work after business trips or Easter breaks with their family. Clients, unsurprisingly,  clamoured for reassurance that the delivery of contracted  IT services and projects would continue normally. The first crisis management meeting was memorable due to the behaviour and attitude of one particular business unit leader. They had their head buried in their hands throughout in full-blown panic mode! They were negative about everything, blamed others for inconsequential things, and functioned in self-preservation mode rather than being collaborative and focused on finding solutions in the best interests of the whole organisation. Their behaviour exposed the fact to all present that they were irrational and unreliable under pressure!

Being good in a crisis takes more than just having a leadership job title! It requires a blend of skills, experience, and mindset. Training helps, but experience and mindset are crucial attributes. Leaders with hands-on crisis management experience handle emergencies better because they instinctively apply their learning from previous situations. They listen, think clearly, analyse information objectively, communicate clearly, adapt to circumstances, make sensible rational decisions, and inspire confidence. They remain calm under pressure, resilient to setbacks, and compartmentalise their feelings and emotions to stay focused on the job in hand. They acknowledge the feelings and emotions of others but keep everyone grounded in reality. Their job title alone is never a good indicator that they are good in a crisis!

Crises tend to reveal latent strengths within individuals, so don’t be fearful if you are asked to manage one. You’ll learn a lot about yourself, and you might even do a much better job of it than someone with a more senior job title than your own!

A world without Google…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Business Continuity, Information Technology, Life, Online Services, Risk, Smart & New Technology, Technology

A feature entitled ‘Where would we be without Google’ appeared on the IET (Institution of Engineering and Technology) website last week. It’s an insightful, entertaining article that takes a wry look at how Google (or more properly Alphabet) has become part of today’s critical infrastructure and why we must let it stay that way. The Badger nodded in agreement when reading the author’s words that the world created by Google should more accurately be described as the world that we – consumers, society, and legislators – have allowed Google to create. The Badger also sympathises with the feature’s conclusion, that for the sake of humanity Google must never be allowed to stop because  nobody knows what might happen if somebody switched its services off. The consequences would be awful in ways that we haven’t envisaged.

Since every facet of personal, public, and business life involves risk, believing that Google could never be ‘switched off’ seems foolish, especially when big tech wields more power than governments, and global instability is on the rise. Switching Google off would be a digital earthquake that shakes the very heart of today’s connected world. Its likelihood may be low, but it’s clearly an identifiable risk and so it’s worth thinking about the impact if it were to happen? Do you know what the consequences would be? Do you know what you would do if you woke up one morning and Google wasn’t there? Probably not, because it’s doubtful that most people have this eventuality on their personal radar. To tickle your thoughts, therefore, here’s a brief sense of the impact if Google was ‘switched off’.

Our go-to source for answers, information, translation, scholarly articles, and academic papers (Google Search, Translate, Scholar) would vanish. A billion or more email inboxes, virtual meetings, and chats would fall silent (Gmail, Google Meet,  Hangouts). Travellers and delivery drivers would become disoriented and wander aimlessly (Google Maps). Online collaborative work would grind to a halt and documents, spreadsheets, presentations, and critical business files would disappear (Google Drive, Docs, Sheets, Slides). Similarly, YouTube creators and viewers would lose their stage and access to content, smart homes would lose their brains, and thermostats, house cameras, and doorbells would lose connectivity. Marketeers and advertisers would find their strategies undermined, and businesses using Google Cloud would be disrupted. Your Android phone would need a new operating system. Just imagine the turmoil as you and a billion others try to adjust at the same time!

It’s unthinkable that Google would ever be switched off, you say. Maybe, but thinking about the unthinkable is at the heart of good risk management. What can we do to minimise the impact on ourselves? Well, the saying  ‘don’t have all your eggs in one basket’ comes to mind. It’s as relevant today as it was before big tech dominated the world…

Protecting your privacy…

Posted on by The Information Badger in AI & Robotics, Online Safety, Online Services, Privacy and Surveillance, Risk, social media, Technology

The arrival of a scam email, a television programme on Banking Scams, scurrilous AI generated images of Taylor Swift, news of a fake robocall using President Biden’s voice, and the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre’s warning that the global ransomware threat will rise with AI, made the Badger think about protecting privacy this week.

The following facts underpinned his musing. LinkedIn, Facebook, X (Twitter), Instagram, Snapchat, and TikTok were launched in 2003, 2004, 2006, 2010, 2011, and 2016, respectively. Amazon was founded in 1994, Netflix in 1997, Google in 1998, Spotify in 2006, and WhatsApp in 2009. The first smartphone with internet connectivity arrived in 2000 when life was very different, as neatly illustrated here. Over barely 30 years, tech and these companies have changed the dynamics of daily life, and what constitutes personal privacy, for everyone. These companies, fledglings 25 years ago but now more powerful than many countries, harvest, hold, and use vast swathes of our personal data. What constitutes privacy for an individual has thus inevitably changed, and, the Badger feels, not for the better compared with 25 years ago. What other conclusion could you make when huge data breaches and scandals like Cambridge Analytica expose individuals to security threats and privacy risk like never before? And along comes AI making the risk to individuals much, much worse!

Everything done online today is tracked and used for some purpose. If you use an internet-connected personal device then the world’s plumbing knows where you are and what you’re doing. When it comes to privacy, therefore, the old saying ‘an Englishman’s home is his castle’ was much more relevant 30 years ago than it is today. With vast swathes of our personal data held online it’s hardly surprising that bad actors want to get their hands on it for nefarious purposes. As Channel 5’s  ‘Banking Scams; Don’t get caught out’ programme recently highlighted, just a small amount of your personal data in the wrong hands can make your life a misery. AI just adds another dimension to the potential scale of that misery.

With online interactions a norm of modern life and AI manipulation of images, video, and speech becoming more widespread, the Badger wondered if there’s something other than good cyber security practices that anyone can do to bolster their personal privacy. Well, there is. Don’t post photos, videos, or voice recordings of yourself on social media platforms! Your face, your body, and your voice are part of your real identity, so why make them easy pickings for anyone of a wicked disposition? The Badger’s lost the plot, you may think, but his fundamental point is this. Think about your privacy the next time you post photos, video, or voice recordings on a social media platform. After all, the responsibility for protecting your privacy fundamentally rests with you…