The Law of Unintended Consequences…

If you’ve a couple of minutes spare then read the item here. It was published in 2013 and what’s striking is that the exact same words could be used if it had been written today! A 2010 item, ‘Technology: The law of unintended consequences, by the same author also stands the test of time. Reading both has caused the Badger to muse on unintended consequences, especially those that have emerged from the digital and online world over the last few decades.

The ‘Law of Unintended Consequences’ is real and is, in essence, quite simple. It declares that every action by a person, company, or government can have positive or negative consequences that are unforeseen. An amusing manifestation of the law in action happened in 2016 when a UK Government agency conducted an online poll for the public to name the agency’s latest polar research ship. The public’s choice, Boaty McBoatface, wasn’t the kind of name the agency anticipated!

One characteristic of unintended consequences is that they tend to emerge over a long period. The internet and social media illustrate this neatly. Both have changed the behaviour of people (especially the young), companies, and governments, and both have challenged safety, security, and privacy like never before. Indeed, the Australian government’s recent decision to ban those under 16 years old from social media demonstrates just how long it’s taken to address some of social media’s unintended consequences since its advent a couple of decades ago.

During his IT career, the Badger participated in delivering the many benefits of digital and online technology to society, but now, more mindful of unintended consequences, he wonders if a future dominated by virtuality, AI, and colossal tech corporations is a good thing for his grandson’s generation. After all, the online and digital world is not where real, biological, life takes place, and there’s more to life than being a slave to our devices.

The ‘Law of Unintended Consequences’ can never be ignored. Although a professional and disciplined approach to progress always reduces the scope for unintended consequences, the fact is these will happen. This means, for example, that there’ll be unintended consequences from the likes of AI, driverless vehicles, and robots at home, and that, in practice, it will take years for these unintended consequences to emerge properly. But emerge they will!

Looking back over recent decades, it’s clear that digital and online technology has delivered benefits. It’s also clear that it’s brought complication, downsides, and unintended consequences to the lives of people in all age groups. The Badger’s concluded that we need a law that captures the relationship between progress, unintended consequences, and real life. So, here’s Badger’s Law: ‘Progress always produces unintended consequences that complicate and compromise the real life of people’. Gosh, it’s astonishing where articles penned over a decade ago can take your thoughts…

The digital world needs nuclear fusion!

When reading recently  that the ITER experimental nuclear fusion reactor under construction in Cadarache, France, is delayed by at least a decade, the Badger sighed deeply. The delay to this huge endeavour, a collaboration involving 35 nations,  inevitably puts back the holy grail of ‘limitless clean energy for the benefit of mankind’ from a tokomak reactor by many decades…again! Why the Badger’s sigh? Because his PhD and subsequent research, many years ago, related to the damage helium ions can cause in potential tokomak first wall materials. At that time, the Joint European Torus (JET) was under construction at Culham in the UK and the ultimate goal of ‘limitless clean energy for the benefit of mankind’ via fusion seemed achievable within the Badger’s lifetime. Realistically, that’s no longer the case, hence the sigh. The holy grail of ‘limitless clean energy‘ from fusion reactors is still far away even though the need for it has never been greater.

ITER, however, is getting a run for its money from private firms within the Fusion Industry Association (FIA). In July 2023, the FIA said that 4 private firms believed they could deliver fusion power into the grid by 2030 and 19 firms believed they could do so by 2035. The Badger’s sceptical. However, given the speedy technological advances of recent decades, these beliefs cannot be completely dismissed if recent technological momentum continues unabated. Wait a minute, you might say if the word ‘nuclear’ always sends uncomfortable shudders down your spine, why do we need power produced by nuclear fusion at all? The answer’s quite simple. As this article points out, and this one reinforces, the world is 86% driven by fossil fuels and energy demand is forecast to rise by 50% from today’s level by 2050. Global energy demand is then expected to triple between 2050 and 2100!  To get anywhere near meeting these forecasts, and have a decarbonised world, requires fusion to provide ‘limitless clean energy for the benefit of mankind’. Yes, wind, solar, and tidal power will play their part, but can they service the scale of this demand without blighting every picturesque part of our planet? That’s debatable.

So, here’s the thing. Digital transformation of the world economy continues at pace. The amount of data created, captured, copied, and consumed will be nearly three times as much in 2025 as in 2020.   AI, the Internet of Things, cryptocurrency, and the digital automation of everything comes with a dramatic increase in electricity usage which cannot be met by non-nuclear renewables alone. When we use our computers, tablets and smartphones we are contributing to the rising demand for electricity, and we are also thus unconsciously making the case for why we need fusion reactors to provide ‘limitless clean energy for the benefit of mankind’. Let’s hope ITER isn’t the only game in town, because if it is then a digital future may not be quite what we currently envisage.

Knowing when to speak up, and when to stay silent…

People attend meetings in their work environment on a daily basis. Moans about the time meetings take up and their encroachment on an individual’s productive work activity were commonplace during the Badger’s career, and they still are today. That’s hardly a surprise because meetings are a key element of the operational rhythm at every level of an organisation. Meetings are crucial for decision making, sharing important information, problem solving, innovating, building and maintaining relationships, aligning people with expectations, and holding people accountable for achieving goals. That’s why training in meeting-related skills is usually a prominent feature within enterprise training programmes.

Meetings can be gatherings of people in the same room, video or telephone conferences, or hybrid setups involving all of these at the same time. The Badger’s attended a huge number over the years, so what’s the most important thing he’s learned from doing so? This very question was, in fact, recently asked by a family member while bemoaning ‘interminable meetings’ in their own workplace! The Badger’s answer was simply this – know when to speak up, and when to stay silent. It’s something he learned early in his career from participating in a difficult meeting about a failing project.

The meeting had client and supplier representatives in the same room to decide on the future of the project. The Badger was present because he was part of the supplier’s team trying to fix the project and its commercial difficulties. The client and supplier leads, both experienced in dealing with troublesome situations, engaged in a direct but business-like manner. One of the client’s team, however, frequently interjected with vitriolic and negative comments which rankled with some of the Badger’s colleagues, one of whom responded in kind every time. That is until a senior colleague prodded them and whispered, ‘shut up, keep quiet, listen and watch’. The meeting eventually ended with an agreed way forward. In the debrief afterwards, the supplier’s leader pointedly told the team that ‘We all have two ears, two eyes, and one mouth. Use them in meetings to listen, watch and speak in that proportion’. They are wise words.

Knowing when to speak up and when to stay silent is an important skill, particularly in difficult and important meetings. Being a good listener, a good observer of participant  body language, and having good control of the urge to speak for the sake of it are important competences for face-to-face meetings, video and teleconferences, or hybrid meetings alike. Knowing when to stay quiet and when to speak is a good discipline and a trait of good managers and leaders. Remember, while every meeting has a mix of different personalities, the smartest and most influential person present isn’t necessarily the one doing all the talking. It’s often the one doing the watching, listening, and being careful about when they speak and what they say…

Social media – in the doghouse again…

Social media platforms are in the doghouse again due to the spread of misinformation, falsehoods, incitement, and hate as a result of the horrendous attack on innocent children in Southport. Media and political rhetoric about the role of social media in the violence and criminality that followed this incident has been predictable. It can be of no surprise that social media was a factor because it’s part of the very fabric of modern life. It’s used by 82.8% of the UK population. Most individuals, businesses, and media, community, and political organisations have a presence on, and actively use, at least one social media platform. Most normal, law-abiding, social media users and organisations will thus have been exposed at some stage to the vitriol, falsehoods, and distorted content that is becoming more and more commonplace on these platforms.

Elon Musk’s war of words with the UK’s Prime Minister, a government minister’s thoughts on X, and a debate about whether we should say goodbye to Mr Musk’s platform,  simply illustrate, the Badger feels, that social media has become more divisive and polarizing than a force for convergence and solutions.  It has disrupted society in just a couple of decades, and it will continue to do so because the platforms are commercial enterprises whose business models and legal status are centred on profiting, without editorial responsibility, from the content their users post. The platforms have become too powerful, and politicians have been like plodding donkeys in dealing with their impact on society.

Social media isn’t all bad and it isn’t going away anytime soon. Handwringing about its role in free speech, something that platforms assert as a defence against regulation, is futile. What’s needed is a lucid articulation of free speech like that given by Rowan Atkinson (Mr Bean) some years ago, followed by aligned, rapid, regulation that a) society’s law-abiding majority can relate to and understand, and b) holds the platforms and their users to account fairly. At the very least, users of a platform must take responsibility for the content they post, and platforms cannot shirk accountability for distributing and making money from content that damages society. Perhaps things will change with the UK’s Online Safety Law now coming into effect? Time, as they say, will tell.

The Badger’s agnostic about social media. He’s never felt that it’s really a good use of his time, but the chances of everyone significantly reducing their addiction to it in today’s world are negligible. But what if they did? The power of platforms would dissipate as their revenues and profits decline, and people would realise they can actually cope and adapt quickly to life without them. Perhaps the riot aftermath of Southport would not have happened? Perhaps it’s time to fight against being addicted slaves? Oops, just remember this is a musing, not an incitement to riot…

‘The Magic Roundabout’ and the tech industry…

The  Magic Roundabout was a beloved children’s programme on UK television between 1965 and 1977. It was produced using stop-motion animation, and it achieved cult status with children and adults alike. Its human characters were Florence, a young girl, and Mr Rusty, the elderly operator of the roundabout. The other main characters were Zebedee the talking jack-in-the box with magical powers, Brian the snail, Ermintrude the cow, and Dylan the hippy-like, guitar-playing, dopey rabbit! It was essential tea-time viewing at the time, and it’s use of stop-motion animation was groundbreaking.

Children’s television programmes, and the technology creating them, have changed vastly since the last episode aired in 1977, and the Badger recently found himself unexpectedly engaged in a conversation comparing ‘The Magic Roundabout’ with today’s tech/IT industry! The conversation happened while visiting a local shop that buys and sells vintage vinyl music records. It’s a lively, friendly establishment, where browsing is encouraged while the owner plays vintage records on turntables behind the till. The Badger’s visit was ostensibly to enquire if any of the vinyl he still has from his youth is of interest to collectors. Before asking, the Badger browsed the shops offerings and a disc from 1975, ‘Funky Moped’ by Jasper Carrot with ‘Magic Roundabout’ on the B-side, caught his eye. It was hard to supress a grin!

Enquiring about the Badger’s own vintage records ultimately led to two things. Firstly, a realisation that some of them are rare and have notable value. One, for example, is his mono Rolling Stones ‘Let it Bleed’ LP in pristine original condition with its original poster. Secondly, it started a discussion with the shop’s owner that ended up not only comparing ‘The Magic Roundabout’ with the tech industry, but also agreeing that Jasper Carrot’s irreverent Magic Roundabout’ routine was, let’s say, of its time!   

It felt surreal comparing ‘The Magic Roundabout’ with the tech industry in a vintage record shop, especially when more similarities emerged than expected. The television programme, for example, featured diverse characters with unique traits and perspectives, and it’s whimsical scripts led to surprising outcomes. The tech industry also features diverse characters with unique traits, skills, and perspectives, and the industry produces surprising outcomes. Both employ advanced techniques embodying creativity, innovation, adaptability, and cross-generation interconnectedness. Both also evoke nostalgia. Who, for example, doesn’t fondly recall their early tech devices and their first forays accessing the internet?

The Badger eventually left the shop reminded that a face-to-face conversation with another person is always an interesting and thought-provoking experience, regardless of what you talk about. Face-to-face conversations are something we should all do more of in today’s world. Walking home, the Badger had the phrase ‘Boing, said Zebedee’ rattling in his head. Hmm, perhaps ‘Boing, said Elon’ might be more apt for today’s world…

Dodgy software releases and a house brick…

The Badger’s first thought on hearing of the recent global IT outage was that the cause  would be a cyber-attack or a messed-up change of some kind. It turned out to be the latter, which triggered a smile because the advances in tools, techniques, processes, and professionalism over the last three decades, hasn’t made it impossible to release software that causes havoc! The outage is a reminder that there’s some fragility in the underbelly of our computerised world, that complexity always comes with risk, and that individuals and enterprises should never have all their eggs in one basket.

The Badger was reminded of his involvement in stabilising and completing a troublesome software project a few decades ago. The software was installed in the client’s premises and being extensively tested on computers that were connected to specialist equipment and other systems. The project team was focused on the defect fix, build, and release cycles needed to support the testing, which was  producing a continuous stream of faults, many more than anticipated. The fix/build/release team, under enormous and intransigent internal and client pressure, struggled to make inroads to the growing defect backlog, and to produce timely update releases. Costs escalated, shortcuts were taken, release quality suffered, and the client was angry that new releases fixed some defects but introduced new ones! The team were demoralised, defensive, and disgruntled. Team spirit had evaporated, and financial incentives were making little difference.

The situation was improved by two things. The first was the injection of hard-nosed,  technically-savvy, leadership that kept all stakeholders at bay and also demanded rigour, quality, and process professionalism from the team. The second was to use a house brick to rebuild team spirit! Every Friday, a team member was allocated the brick for having made a mistake of some kind. The brick sat on their desk until it was reallocated the following Friday (if someone else had made a mistake). No one wanted to be a recipient of the brick! Rigour, process diligence, and fix to release quality improved. The brick also triggered good-natured banter across the team whose morale, motivation, and cohesiveness improved dramatically. On project completion the brick was mounted on a plinth and presented – amidst raucous merriment – for posterity to the person who’d received it the most! No one ever took offence at being awarded the brick, but would that be the case today? Doubtful.

Those whose change caused the recent global IT outage were probably a team of good people operating under relentless pressure from their stakeholders. Lessons, of course, must be learned, but deriding them for a mistake that exposed a global IT fragility would be a mistake. You never know, deploying a humble house brick might help them ensure they don’t make the same mistake again…

Information is not knowledge. The only source of knowledge is experience. You need experience to gain wisdom…

It’s not unusual when having met a senior leader or company executive for the first time to come away feeling either impressed and respectful, or underwhelmed and sceptical. Of his many such encounters, the Badger always remembers one because it involved ‘age’ and ‘wisdom’ !  

The CEO of a niche tech company approached the Badger’s CEO to ask if they could talk informally to ‘someone with experience and wisdom’ about IT delivery. The two CEOs knew each other through being on the same committee of a trade body. Out of good will, the Badger’s CEO asked him to meet with the individual to share some wisdom gleaned from his IT delivery experience. The Badger duly met the tech CEO, and after a few opening pleasantries, was told by the latter that he was probably too old to provide the kind of wisdom they were looking for! The 35-year-old CEO believed that wisdom provided by anyone older than themselves was outdated and irrelevant. The Badger, a decade or more older with some grey hairs, managed to suppress his irritation!

The CEO was polite but dismissive of the Badger’s experience and guidance. They believed that someone younger and focused on every facet of the latest hot trends would provide more valuable input. This rankled, but the Badger simply pointed out that if they didn’t want his advice, then that was, of course, their prerogative. The meeting soon ended. The Badger’s parting shot was to say that he was proud to have reached an age, maturity, and independence that’s so neatly expressed in Einstein’s quote, ‘I have reached an age when, if someone tells me to wear socks, I don’t have to’. The Badger reported back to his boss that he was unimpressed. His boss wasn’t surprised, admitted to disliking the individual, and expressed an opinion that the tech CEO wouldn’t last long in their job. They were right!

The US Presidential Election has put age in the spotlight. Both candidates are much older than the averages for Fortune 500 company chiefs, FTSE 100 CEOs, and 2024 UK Members of Parliament (59.2, 55, and 50 years old, respectively).  The average age of workers  in tech and IT is much closer to that of the 35-year-old tech CEO, and so for those working in these dynamic sectors, it’s worth remembering that we aren’t born with wisdom, age alone doesn’t imply wisdom, and that those who have it acquire it over time through work, personal, educational and social experiences, and exposure to the behaviour of others. That’s why for a long career and to acquire wisdom  you must continually expand your real experience and real skills rather than academically fixate on the latest hot trend. Einstein, after all, said that ‘Information is not knowledge. The only source of knowledge is experience. You need experience to gain wisdom’, and he was right…

People – they are always a challenge…

How would you answer if someone at the start of their IT-sector career asked you ‘What’s the most challenging thing you’ve encountered throughout your career?’  Your answer might be something personal like, for example, a family, financial, or health matter, or it might be something purely professional like a task that proved especially testing, getting the right people into the right roles to deliver project or business objectives, or coping with change during rapid organisational transformation or growth. You will have your own answer, but what’s the Badger’s? Well, it’s one word, and that word is ‘people’.

In the Badger’s experience, people are crucial for success, but they are a never-ending challenge! Why? Because people have unique backgrounds, experiences, thought processes, perspectives, fallibilities, strengths and motivations that make them a melting pot of unpredictability and surprises! An illustration from the Badger’s first role as a project manager is pertinent. A graduate programmer, a lady two years out of University, had been recruited by the Badger’s employer. Her CV looked good, and she’d done well during the recruitment process. The Badger’s line manager charged him with using her to fill a vacant programming role on his project team. She seemed like a good fit, and she appeared to have settled in well by the end of her first week with the team. Within a month, however, the project team were mutinous! Her work was poor, she had not completed any task, her attitude was surly and self-centred, and her timekeeping was appalling.

Chats with the Badger to encourage improvement and explore whether there were any hidden underlying personal problems proved fruitless. Formal HR processes came into play, during which it became clear that this person wasn’t interested in programming, being part of a team, or a career with the company. Employment with any company, she ultimately admitted, was simply her way of obtaining money for expensive holidays! She was exited from the company. The Badger learned that there’s more to people than is visible, that they are complex, have values that might differ from your own, and that they can take up lots of valuable management time!

The fact that people were the Badger’s most challenging thing throughout his career is not surprising when life is dynamic, circumstances change, and individuals are always adapting to new personal and professional situations. The Badger always rose to the challenge, because people from the most junior to the most senior matter if you want to succeed. With the relentless progress of automation and AI, it’s easy to think that dealing with people is becoming less relevant. Not so! AI may change everything, but it’s people who are crucial to harnessing its potential to making a difference. People will always be a challenge, but knowing more about what makes them tick will be essential for handling the challenges of the foreseeable future…

Once privacy has gone in the digital world, it’s gone…

Sitting quietly under a parasol, beer in hand, observing a beach full of people enjoying  the recent sunny weather, triggered fond memories of days at the same beach in the 1970s. How things have changed since then! Today, those on the beach are, let’s put it tactfully, ‘bigger’. (The average British man is around 7.62 cm taller, and 10.4 kgs heavier than 50 years ago). Adults with tattoos are commonplace, whereas in the 1970s tattoos featured primarily on seafarers and unruly motorcyclists. When soaking up the sun’s rays today, most beachgoers are using their smartphone or tablet for social media and surfing the internet, for taking copious photos and videos, and for streaming music or watching movies. Printed newspapers and magazines, portable transistor radios and cassette players, and cameras requiring photographic film – all commonplace at the beach in the 1970s – are a rare sight on the beach today.

As he quaffed his beer, the Badger reflected on how the digital world has changed our lives since the 1970s, a decade when pen and paper dominated, a computer was programmed with cards or paper tape, and an affordable electronic pocket calculator was a great leap forward! Way back then, what we take for granted today was science fiction. Progress, however, always comes at a price, and today’s frequent security breaches, data thefts, IT system problems causing widespread disruption and inconvenience, and misinformation, disinformation, and scurrilous content on social media, all expose the fact that part of this price has been an erosion of personal privacy.

When today’s world is typified by things like those reported here, here, here, here, and here, and AI- produced, deepfake video, photos, and audio are ever more commonplace, then people who value their privacy must be wary, clear-headed, and ruthlessly objective about protecting it, much more so than in the 1970s. The Badger, observing the beachgoers liberally using their personal devices, asked himself whether they were doing so with their privacy in the forefront of their mind? Were they conscious of how many online enterprises know their email address, contact details, their likes and dislikes, what they buy and when? Were they conscious that there is a reasonable probability that their personal data has been leaked in cyber-attacks? Were they aware that a deep fake of them can be produced by anyone with scurrilous intent in the digital world from a single image, ~40 seconds of speech audio, and a few cheap AI tools? The Badger’s doubtful.

The advent of the digital world since the 1970s has brought many benefits, but it’s been at the expense of eroded personal privacy. Who’s to blame? Well, blaming others misses the point because protecting our own privacy starts with our own actions and behaviours. So, if you value your privacy, then think very carefully whenever you upload content to the virtual world, because once privacy’s gone, it’s gone…  

Physics, Chemistry, Mathematics and Light underpin the digital world of tomorrow…

A trip to the supermarket provided a reminder that without physics, chemistry, and mathematics none of our modern tech, internet, and online services would exist. Hardly a revelation, but what triggered this heightened awareness? Well, just the simple act of taking a small bag of spent disposable batteries to a recycling bin in the supermarket’s checkout area. The bin was full to overflowing with used disposable batteries from toys, clocks, TV remotes, cordless computer keyboards, wireless mice, and a myriad of other sources that use replaceable batteries as a power source. The act of depositing his spent batteries reminded the Badger that each one is actually a little capsule of physics, chemistry, and mathematics, and that our digital world depends on these subjects and batteries of one form or another.

On returning home, the Badger reflected on the science, materials, manufacturing, and recycling of these disposable batteries and whether they’ll ultimately be made redundant by newer power source innovations in the decades ahead. After all, the Titanium Citizen Eco-Drive watch on the Badger’s wrist uses solar and artificial light for power rather than replaceable batteries. It’s a technology that dates back to the mid-1970s, so it’s not new. Furthermore, the 1980s pocket calculator sitting on the Badger’s desk is also solar powered with no replaceable batteries. It’s a memento from a major 1980’s software development project and it works just as well today as it did back then! The Badger thus found himself wondering why power derived from light sources hasn’t rendered the disposable battery redundant in the last 40 years. Well, to make a functionally reliable, manufacturable, commercially viable product that has physics, chemistry, and mathematics at its core takes years of research to come to fruition. The good news is that it looks like lengthy research is bearing fruit and we may soon see a revolution that makes natural and artificial light the power source for a wide range of our devices, see here and here.

We should not be surprised that the coming years are likely to see a significant change in how our in-home devices, smart tech, and personal computing devices are powered. The use of replaceable batteries looks destined to decline. There’ll ultimately be no more charging cables, and no more trips to the supermarket to recycle spent batteries! Things, of course, are never that clear cut, but if light photons hitting panels on a home’s roof can generate electricity for household use, then it’s inevitably just a matter of time before light will power our gadgets and render disposable batteries redundant.

Fundamentally, power sources – and everything else in our modern digital world – are determined by physics, chemistry, mathematics and years of research. We should never shy away from being educated in these subjects because they – and light – are the seeds that will determine whatever we want the digital world of the future to be…