Category: Information Technology

AI – A Golden Age or a new Dark Age?

Posted on by The Information Badger in AI & Robotics, Automation, Change, Digital Transformation, Ethics & Regulation, Information Technology, Intelligent machines, Life, Risk, Technology

The Badger’s experimented with Microsoft’s Copilot for a while now, sometimes impressed, but often irritated when the tool ends its answer to a question by asking the user’s opinion on the underlying topic of the question. For example, the Badger asked Copilot ‘When will self-driving cars be the majority of vehicles in the UK?’  Copilot’s answer was sensible and distilled from quoted sources, but it ended with ‘What are your thoughts on self-driving cars? Do you think they’ll revolutionize transportation?’. The Badger wanted an answer to his question, not a conversation that will capture, store, and use his opinion for the tool’s own purpose. Responding with ‘None of your business’ gets the reply ‘Got it! If you have any other questions or need assistance with something else, feel free to ask. I’m here to help’. That last phrase should be supplemented with ‘and make money!

Overall, his experimentation has made him wonder if AI is leading to a new Golden Age for humanity, or a new Dark Age. So, what’s the answer? A new Golden Age, or a worrying Dark Age? AI and Machine Intelligence advocates, giant businesses investing huge amounts of money in the technology, and even governments with a ‘fear of missing out’, are quick to say it’s the former. The Nobel Laureate Geoffrey Hinton, the godfather of AI, isn’t so sure. He articulates the risks well, and he’s highlighted that the ability of AI to eventually wipe out humanity isn’t inconceivable. Listening to him interviewed recently on the Today programme, BBC Radio 4’s flagship news and current affairs programme, struck a chord. It made the Badger realise that such concerns are valid, and that a Dark Age is a possibility.

So where does the Badger stand on the Golden or Dark Age question? Well, the last 25 years has made us believe tech-driven change is a good thing, but that premise should be challenged. New technology may drive change, but it doesn’t necessarily drive progress because it’s politics that really determines whether change makes people better off overall. Politicians, however, have struggled woefully to deal with tech-driven change and the new problems it’s created for society so far this century. There’s little sign this is changing for AI. Humans are fallible and can make poor judgements, but if we become reliant on AI to make choices for us, then there’s a real danger that our confidence and capacity to make our own independent decisions will be lost.

The Badger’s answer is thus nuanced. A Golden Age will unfold in areas where AI is a tool providing a tangible benefit under direct human control, but if AI is allowed to become completely autonomous and more intelligent than humans, then a Dark Age is inevitable. Why? Because things with greater overall intelligence always control things of lower overall intelligence. Can you think of an example where the reverse is true?

Smart Meters…again…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Delivery, Energy and Energy Markets, Information Technology, Smart Meters, Transformation

The UK Smart Meter rollout programme missed its original completion date of 2019 and new arrangements were established for the rollout to get, as a minimum, a smart meter installed in 80% of UK homes by the end of December 2025. That number‘s still a long way short of the original 100% ambition, and it’s since been watered down to ~75%. The Government’s Smart Meter Statistics reports for Q3 2023 and Q3 2024 show the numbers stood at 59% and 65%, respectively. Not all installed meters are operating in ‘smart mode’ so, in reality, the numbers where smart mode is in operation are ~10% lower. However, regardless of how you look at the numbers, progress of 6% over a full year doesn’t provide any confidence that the end of 2025 minimum target will be met. Perhaps the next government report for Q4 2024 will paint a more positive picture? Unlikely.

The UK government and the enterprises delivering the programme are, no doubt, already discussing the consequences of falling short of 2025’s minimum target. Two things seem certain. Firstly, the rollout will continue for years beyond 2025, with some kind of reset dressed up by spin that covers some difficult realities. Secondly, the consumer will continue paying for the programme through their energy bills for a long time yet. Remember, the benefit to the consumer is miniscule compared to the benefit to the energy supply companies.

If the 6% rise in on-premises smart meters between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024 typifies  rollout progress for the coming years, you don’t have to be a genius to see that achieving 100% this decade is questionable. The programme’s cost ~£13.5bn, has been running for  >12 years, and there are millions of meters still not operating properly in homes. It’s supposedly a national infrastructure programme vital for modernising the UK energy system, improving energy security and resilience, and supporting net-zero greenhouse gas ambitions. Public scepticism, however, is unabated. Programmes of this ilk are, of course, always challenging, but many countries in Europe have already achieved or surpassed 80% penetration with their own smart meter rollouts and so something fundamental must explain why the UK’s programme consistently underperforms.

Smart meter obsolescence will require the replacement of many meters installed in homes in the coming years, and a communication upgrade is necessary to deal with the demise of 2G/3G communication networks. There doesn’t appear to be a forecast cost to complete the meter installations needed to achieve 100% penetration and these upgrade issues in the public domain yet. The Badger thus concludes that consumers will be footing the bill for years yet, and that it’s right to be sceptical about the ability to deliver any new national energy programmes to time, budget, quality, and tangible consumer benefit…  

Human Space travel to Mars? Just send Intelligent Machines…

Posted on by The Information Badger in AI & Robotics, Automation, Information Technology, Intelligent machines, Life, Space

‘Space, the final frontier. These are the voyages of the Starship Enterprise. Its five-year mission – to explore strange new worlds, to seek out new life and new civilizations, to boldly go where no man has gone before’.

In September 1966, these iconic words were heard for the first time when Star Trek arrived on television. They, in essence, remind us that the pursuit of knowledge and the exploration of the unknown are central to what it means to be human. They inspire us to dream big, embrace challenges, and continually seek to expand our understanding. The words were narrated before man landed on the moon, before the internet, before smartphones and laptops, and when the computing power available to astronauts was miniscule compared to that of a mid-range smartphone. Things have changed extraordinarily since 1966,  but the opening words to Star Trek episodes are just as relevant to what it means to be human today.

Space travel is difficult, as US billionaires will attest (see here and here, for example). Today’s Space-race is different to that of the 1960s with, for example, the likes of India and China part of the fray. Putting humans back on the Moon is a key objective, and the USA’s Artemis programme intends to do just that within the next few years, if things go to plan.  Putting human feet on Mars, as reaffirmed by the USA’s President Trump during his inauguration this week, is also an objective. The Badger, however, senses that it’s unlikely to happen for decades yet, if at all.

Why the scepticism? Well, two things. The first is that putting humans on Mars and bringing them back is much more challenging than returning to the Moon. The second thing is more fundamental. In the ~60 years since Star Trek’s iconic words were first heard, life and our knowledge of Space has been transformed through technological advances, especially in the sphere of capturing, processing, and using information digitally. Advances in digital technology continue apace with AI and intelligent machines fast becoming a reality. Indeed, Mr Trump has announced huge investment in Stargate, AI infrastructure.  The automation of everything with machines becoming as intelligent as humans begs a question, namely ‘Is prolonged human travel in Space really viable and economically sensible?’

The evidence implies that humans are unsuited to prolonged Space travel (e.g. see here and here). So why send humans to Mars when intelligent machines are a better option? Perhaps a rethink of putting humans on Mars will happen as AI and intelligent machines become mainstream, perhaps it won’t. Meantime the Badger wholly subscribes to the pursuit of knowledge and exploration of the unknown, but he will enjoy Star Trek for what it is, just imaginative  entertainment…

‘Free speech’ and Social Media…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Information Technology, Life, social media, Tech for social good

Social media started 2025 with a bang! Mr Musk expressed opinions on X about various UK politicians and UK issues, and Mr Zuckerberg announced the end of Meta’s fact-checking programme and changes to its content moderation policy. These two events produced lots of commentary about social media platforms and ‘free speech’ in the traditional media and in political circles. The Badger sighed on reading much of the discourse because ‘free speech’ has existed long before the existence of social media platforms. There are a wide variety of views about the importance of social media for ‘free speech’, but the Badger’s view is simple. Society as a whole, through its institutions, laws, and cultural norms, is the bastion of ‘free speech’, not Mr Musk, Mr Zuckerberg, or anyone else who owns a social media platform which, let’s not forget, is a business striving to maximise profit from its users.

Musing on some of the media discourse over a coffee on returning from a walk through a snowy park, the Badger’s thoughts converged on three points. The first was that social media is here to stay and cannot be ignored. With ‘free speech’, however, comes responsibility, and this seems to be in relatively short supply in the social media domain. The second was that social media platforms are businesses, and those that own or run them have a vested interest, an inevitable focus on making money, and an aversion to regulation. Messrs Musk, Zuckerberg, and indeed other leaders of massive corporations, will always have ‘an agenda’, and what they say and how they act will always be determined by that agenda and their vested interest. The relationship between  social media and ‘free speech’ must be considered with this in mind.

The third point was more holistic. It embraced more of our  current world’s dynamics. Technology,  ‘free speech’, and social media may be components of world dynamics, but the recent discourse illustrates something about the wielding of power in today’s world. That something is captured by John Lennon’s words uttered a quarter of a century ago. He said ‘Our society is run by insane people for insane objectives. I think we’re being run by maniacs for maniacal ends, and I think I’m liable to be put away as insane for expressing that. That’s what’s insane about it’. He has a point. ’Free speech’ existed when he said those words, and social media didn’t.

As the Badger finished his coffee, he decided that the key take-away from his musing was simply this, not to let tech and social media dominate one’s life. After all, life will go on if social media didn’t exist. Outsourcing one’s life to social media and being a slave to its content is a risky thing to do, but if you do, then keep John Lennon’s words in mind and don’t be naïve about the veracity of the content you consume…

2025 – A year of ‘Strain and Change’…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Information Technology, Leadership, Life, Opinion, Public Institutions, Risk, Technology, Transformation

The festive season is over, and most people are once again embroiled in the routine of normal life. Many start the year mentally refreshed, physically rested, and game for the next challenge, but some do not. And there’s the rub, to use an idiom from Shakespeare, because those starting the year unprepared for a challenge will surely find this year difficult. Why’s that, especially when every year presents challenges that must be dealt with? Well, the omens for 2025 suggest it’s going to be a particularly testing one across a broad range of fronts. As a relative put it over the holiday period, the world order’s changing fast, there’s disgruntlement with political leaders, AI and disruptive advances in digital tech driven by huge corporations continue unabated, retrenchment from the globalisation that’s been a norm for years  is underway, and so ‘Strain and Change’ will be everywhere in 2025.   Those stepping back into life’s rhythms expecting the status quo and unprepared for challenges are thus likely in for a rude awakening.

With this in mind, the Badger found himself chuckling as he read what the BBC’s Tomorrow’s World TV programme predicted in 1995 for 2025. When Professor Stephen Hawking told that programme that ‘Some of these changes are very exciting, and some are alarming. The one thing we can be sure of is that it will be very different, and probably not what we expect’, little did he (or the Badger) know that the Badger’s last post for 2024 would echo the same sentiment! The Badger started wondering what advice Professor Hawking, who produced many pearls of wisdom, might have given us at the start of a year of ‘Change and Strain’. After a little research, the Badger decided he would simply concatenate two of his memorable pearls of wisdom to say:

‘It is very important for young people to keep their sense of wonder and keep asking why. It’s a crazy world out there. Be curious. However difficult life may seem, there is always something you can do and succeed at’.

This seems apt in many ways, but especially for today’s always on, social media dominated, digital world where Hawking’s sentiment can be expressed as  ‘Don’t take anything you read, watch, or hear at face value. Be curious, ask questions, and always believe that you can take action to better your situation’. The Badger thinks that ‘Strain and Change’ is the drumbeat of 2025 technologically, nationally, geopolitically, commercially, and economically. Accordingly, whatever challenges lay ahead, they must be faced with the mindset embodied in Professor Hawking’s concatenated words above. As for the Badger? Well, he’s motivated, refreshed, and well prepared. The only status quo he’s anticipating in 2025 is the continuation of timeless, good, vintage music of which ’Living on an Island’ is a good example…

Looking forward…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Information Technology, IT Project Management, Leadership, Life

Do you know exactly what you were doing at a specific time on Christmas Eve 45 years ago? Regardless of your age, it’s unlikely that you do! But the Badger does. He and his brothers were helping their father complete deliveries so that he could get home at a reasonable time on Christmas Eve. We’d started at 3am, and on completing the last delivery in the middle of the afternoon we were exhausted! The Badger remembers the time, location, the weather, and what we were wearing for this last delivery because one of his brothers had a 35mm camera with him and asked a passerby to take a photo of us in front of the delivery vehicle. That photo is date and time-stamped and is cherished by the Badger and his brothers.

What’s this got to do with ‘looking forward’? Well, the Badger’s father, who’s no longer with us, never made predictions about the year ahead. Being orphaned while an evacuee from London during the Second World War meant he dealt with life one day at a time. The unpredictability of the future world and his personal circumstances made not looking beyond tomorrow routine. He joined the Army as soon as he was old enough to, as he put it, ‘get an education, some semblance of  structure and family, and to establish good life skills and standards’. He thrived, served in Germany and the Middle East, and only left the service to marry.

The Badger and his brothers frequently heard mantras rooted in his Army days and childhood experiences while growing up. Advice like ‘there’s no such thing as can’t, try’, ‘if you’re knocked back, pull yourself together and start again’, and ‘learn from your mistakes but don’t dwell on the past, look forward to the future’ were heard frequently. His favourites were ‘remember, if it looks wrong, feels wrong, smells wrong, or sounds wrong, then it’s wrong’, ‘if something untoward happens don’t ignore it, deal with it’, and ‘look forward,  because you can’t change the past’. He often said he never made predictions about the future because he’d learned that the future never turned out the way anyone expected. The Badger has thus resisted the temptation to express any opinion about what 2025 will hold. While ‘look forward, because you can’t change the past’ continues to be a key ethos, his father was right – the future will almost certainly turn out to be different to what’s anticipated!

Thank you for reading the Badger’s Blog during 2024,  and best wishes for Christmas and the New Year. The Badger and his brothers will be toasting those of the pre-internet/tech generation who are no longer with us because they provided a drumbeat of sound advice and wisdom that’s become much diluted in today’s world. Merry Christmas!

The NHS doesn’t engage or communicate with patients on waiting lists at all…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Digital Transformation, Information Technology, Leadership, NHS, Online Services

Statistics show that >80% of the UK population engage in online shopping, an impressive number given Amazon et al only launched in the 1990s. The Badger uses Amazon, amongst others, because the ‘customer journey’ from choosing goods, payment, through to and including delivery, is straightforward, reliable, and provided with  informative tracking information about the journey of the goods. This ‘customer journey’ is founded on solid, integrated IT, designed to engage and communicate with the customer throughout the whole process. Good, proactive, interaction with customers is a norm in today’s online world, which means that any public facing service that doesn’t have it sticks out like a sore thumb!

Last week the Badger visited a neighbour, a statistician long retired from the UK Civil Service,  who’d recently had a fall in the street. Their wife invited the Badger round for coffee and a chat to lift her husband’s spirits. The coffee was good, the conversation lively, and her husband’s spirits were indeed lifted! Given their Civil Service career, government and the NHS inevitably came up in our conversation. At one point the Badger laughed when the statistician asserted that ‘All governments are somewhere on the incompetency spectrum’. They were forthright about the NHS too, saying ‘Unlike Amazon with its customers, the NHS doesn’t engage and communicate with patients on waiting lists at all’.

What triggered this remark is the fact that a NHS hospital consultant told them a year ago not only that they needed an operation, but also that its clinical priority meant it would happen within 2 to 3 months. After 3 months had elapsed with no communication from the hospital, the statistician called to enquire what was happening only to be told they were on the waiting list and would hear something soon. After another 3  months of no contact, they enquired again and got the same response. A year has now passed and there’s been no proactive communication from the hospital at all. Understandably, their trust in the NHS has almost completely evaporated. It wasn’t surprising, therefore, that we decided during our conversation that government should get Amazon to implement proper, ‘customer journey’-like,  21st century ‘patient journey’ engagement, IT, and waiting list communication practices for the NHS. Radical, wacky? May be, but the status quo isn’t working. Not proactively communicating with patients who’ve been on waiting lists for months sticks out like a sore thumb as being behind the times and is plain wrong!

The IT for the online shopping ‘customer journey’ is well established, so surely its principles and mechanisms can be adapted to proactively keep patients informed during their ‘patient journey’? The government’s consulting about NHS changes but can it cut through NHS vested interests? It has to, because there’s a mountain of waiting list patients who’ve already lost confidence that this complex 20th century supertanker will ever be truly fit for the 21st century…

‘What’s the point of hard work…if the rewards are taken away years later?’

Posted on by The Information Badger in Business, Change, Information Technology, Leadership & Management

The UK government announced that from April 2027 any remaining unused pension on an individual’s death will count towards their estate for Inheritance Tax purposes. This is a big change which caused the Badger to holistically cogitate! Although farmers, in particular, are already angrily protesting, this change affects anyone, employed or planning retirement, with Defined Contribution (DC) pension schemes, the norm for most companies and auto-enrolment these days.  

From April 2027 any unused pension will be included in a person’s estate for tax purposes. The beneficiary of the unused pension also pays Income Tax when they draw on their legacy. This is double taxation, the morality of which is questionable, and it means that if the beneficiary is a higher rate taxpayer, then their effective tax rate could be a whopping 64%. There’s no doubt that the government’s announcement will significantly change workforce attitudes towards pensions, inheritance planning, and retirement over the coming years.

This change doesn’t just affect the ‘wealthy’, it affects those in the broad IT industry that are ‘modestly comfortable’ too. If you’re employed in IT then you’re well paid compared with the UK average, you work hard for what you earn, and you’re likely to be in the ‘modestly comfortable’ category. The IT and tech sectors, important for the UK government’s economic growth aspirations, can be challenging but lucrative if you work hard and continuously develop your skills. In the Badger’s experience, IT people do indeed work hard, go beyond the call of duty, and most are prudent and make sacrifices to provide a modestly comfortable future for their loved ones. They deserve their rewards, but many will now find themselves, as reported recently in The I, in a similar situation to that of Louise Rollings, a single mum who worked for decades at an IT company. She comments:

‘The changes announced in the Budget make it feel as though people like me are being penalised for having worked hard, prioritised, budgeted and made sacrifices all our lives. As it stands, very little space has been left for people who have worked hard all their lives to build up modest estates to feel appreciated and rewarded. What’s the point in hard work if the rewards of all that ambition and determination are taken away in later years?”

Quite! If you work hard, make sacrifices, pay all your taxes, save and invest prudently, and contribute to a DC  pension scheme (like governments encourage you to do and where you carry the underlying investment risk), then the question captured in Ms Rollings’ last sentence is very apt. If IT and tech are important for the country’s  economic growth, then the government needs to encourage more and more people in these sectors to work hard. That’s not likely to happen if you know with certainty that the rewards from your effort will be taken away many years later…

Looking into the eyes of…a politician…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Delivery, Human Resources, Information Technology, IT Project Management, Leadership, Leadership & Management, Project Management, Psychology

Most people in the UK workforce never get to look deeply into the eyes of a government minister. The Badger, however, first did just that some decades ago. The Secretary of State for Trade and Industry at the time visited one of the Badger’s employer’s offices for the type of ‘understanding what we do’ session that sometimes produce snippets on television news. At the time, the Badger was leading his company’s development of a key IT system at the heart of an important major programme within this minister’s remit. The day before the visit, the Badger’s boss told him to attend in case they wanted to discuss progress with the programme. The timing was inconvenient because the IT system was just a few days into a crucial testing activity, but attending was obviously the right thing to do.

The Badger duly arrived early the next morning at the office hosting the visit. The minister and their entourage arrived mid-morning, slightly later than expected, and the company CEO took them on a tour of the building and a number of demonstrations  prepared by local project teams. As they were shown around, the minister hardly smiled. They appeared distant and disinterested, and they spent more time talking to individuals in their entourage than those they were meeting. As the tour concluded, the CEO beckoned the Badger over and introduced him to the Secretary of State as the person delivering the key IT system at the heart of their programme. The Secretary of State shook the Badger’s hand, and while doing so, they locked eyes with the Badger’s and coldly asked ‘Will the system be delivered on time?’ without blinking. ‘Yes’, the Badger answered truthfully. They instantly turned away and asked the CEO about the arrangements for lunch! Immediately after this fleeting interaction, the Badger reflected on what he’d sensed from looking into the eyes of this politician.

Eyes are often called the ‘windows to a person’s soul’. If that’s the case, then this politician had no soul! There had been no flicker of interest, just a constancy of optical contact that was cold, uncomfortable, intimidating, and empty. While the Badger knew that politicians, like many business leaders, are often trained to maintain a certain demeanour, he concluded, right or wrong, that this individual’s personal attributes were unattractive and distrustful because they really didn’t have a soul!

Over the years since, the Badger’s often looked deeply into the eyes of politicians and business leaders. He’s come to realise that some do indeed have a soul, because their eyes broadcast confidence, competence, interest, inspiration, and trust. He’s observed that those with such attributes tend to have lengthy, successful, leadership careers, but those that don’t have tended to falter. So, never avoid direct eye contact with politicians and leaders because, as Al Pacino said in the movie Scarface, ‘The eyes, Chico, never lie’…

Banning social media for the under-16s…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Education, Ethics & Regulation, Information Technology, Life, Online Safety, social media, Tech for social good, Wellbeing

Richard Holway,  a well-known, respected, and influential analyst in the UK software and IT services markets, penned an item last week for TechMarketView entitled ‘What have we done?’. The item relates to the harm that social media and smartphones are doing to children. As a grandparent with a background in software and IT services, and having a grandchild who’s just started school, it struck a chord and reinforced the Badger’s own opinion that they have indeed caused great harm for children under 16. Holding this view doesn’t make the Badger, or anyone else with the same opinion come to that, an anti-tech dinosaur, just a human being who is pro technology that has safety, security, privacy, and human well-being as its paramount priorities. When it comes to ensuring the best for children in their formative years, it seems to be mainly the unprincipled and unscrupulous who argue about having these as dominant priorities.

History is littered with ‘products’ of one kind or another that were widely popular but were ultimately recognised over time as being a danger to human well-being. Plastics, DDT, cigarettes, fossil fuels, asbestos, paint with lead in it, illustrate the point. Did you know that a century ago cigarettes were advertised as being beneficial for asthma and anxiety? Also, incredibly popular patent medicines in the 19th and early 20th centuries  had no restrictions on what they contained. Many contained cocaine, morphine, and heroin. A very popular cough mixture for children did, indeed, include  heroin! Things, of course, changed once society eventually realised the scale of addiction and early deaths that occurred. It has long seemed to the Badger that aspects of our rampant tech-dominated world, especially with regard to social media, are following this same historical template, especially when it comes to use by children.

In little more than two decades, social media has evolved from being a novel way of staying connected to family and friends, into a powerful global force that shapes many dimensions of daily life. Evidence that social media has harmful effects on children is growing all the time. Science shows that social media causes the release of large amounts of dopamine into the human brain just like addictive drugs such as heroin, and even alcohol. No wonder it’s easy to get hooked!

Like Mr Holway, the Badger fully supports the ban on smartphones and social media apps for children under the age of 16. As you can see here, the legal age in the UK is 18 to buy alcohol, tobacco products, knives, and certain types of DVDs and games. The legal age is 16 to buy pets and animals, petrol, matches, and to be in fulltime employment. Why, therefore, shouldn’t smartphones and social media apps be banned for children under the age of 16? As Mr Spock from Star Wars would say, ‘Isn’t it illogical, Jim, to do otherwise?’