Social media: The same trajectory as tobacco?

A New Year is fast approaching. For many it’s a time of joy and optimism, but for others it can be a daunting, sad, and worrying prospect. Christmas and the New Year period for the Badger’s family is about getting together whatever the circumstances. When we do, there’s always a discussion about the future of the tech world and so the Badger’s been musing on the subject in preparation. One of his conclusions has been that foreseeing a future event isn’t as outrageous as it might seem if you look at history and compare it with present-day dynamics.

The Badger’s concluded, for example, that ‘social media will follow the same trajectory as other industries that have touched health, cognition and social order’. That’s not an outrageous conclusion when there are striking structural parallels between social media and, for example, the tobacco industry. The latter thrived for decades in a regulatory vacuum with products that were known to damage users’ health. Similarly, social media operates in an under-regulated space with products that keep users engaged to maximise profits regardless of the toll on public health. Whereas tobacco’s harm is biochemical and physiological, social media’s is cognitive, social, behavioural, and physical in a way that’s harder to see or measure. It hides it’s harm behind its convenience, utility, and benefits. Worrying about harmful content, its encouragement of habitual screentime leading to lower physical activity, lowering attention spans, and eroding emotional adaptability, is not misplaced because these are all bad for long term physical and mental health.

The tobacco industry was built on the underlying motives of maximum user engagement, maximum revenue, product optimisation for addictive behaviour, and resistance to regulation. Social media seems the same. With tobacco, law makers eventually ‘woke up’ because – as history shows with industries that touch human health, cognition, and social order – once harms and their cost become undeniable in the public domain, society always pushes back! At some stage this seems likely to happen with social media resulting in its radical transformation. Gradual reform rarely works when business models are not aligned with societal well-being, companies are financially and politically powerful, and consumers have become accustomed to products and services. Any transformation of social media, given the slow speed of regulation, seems a long way off unless something radical happens.

What could that something be? Well, history shows that radical change tends to come from economic collapse rather than moral awakenings or gradual reform. If the social media giants were to start making huge financial losses that collapse their share price, then radical change would happen because such shocks always force restructuring, regulation, and cultural re-evaluation. Is this plausible? Well, never say never! The Badger will be adopting ‘never say never’ as his reference point for everything during 2026. In the current world and tech climate, it seems silly to do otherwise…

A smartwatch for wellbeing and health?

Last week the Badger attended his uncle’s 90th birthday. He sat with a group of mostly millennial adults and found himself watching how often they checked their smartphone or smartwatch, and sometimes both. Before the Badger’s uncle blew out the candles on his birthday cake, conversation in the group was convivial and centred on catching up since the last time everyone was together. A smartwatch noisily tinkled and buzzed, and the person sitting opposite the Badger got up and announced to everyone that their watch had told them they’d been sitting for too long! They walked away and returned a few minutes later. When they took their seat, they began talking in a way that sounded like a commercial for smartwatches equipped with health and wellness tracking apps.

A discussion ensued. People in the group were asked if they had smartwatches and found their health apps useful. Most younger adults nodded. A few admitted to being addicted to the well-being and health metrics their smartwatches provided. A couple said they had a smartwatch but rarely used the health and well-being functions, and the remainder, including the Badger, did not have a smartwatch. The Badger was asked why he doesn’t have a smartwatch given his IT/tech background, especially when, as the questioner put it, the health apps ‘would be beneficial at your age.’  In reply, the Badger made two curt points. The first was that his solar powered but otherwise conventional watch and the smartphone in his pocket met all his needs to function while out and about in today’s world. The second was that smartwatches are not approved medical devices, and so their health metrics fundamentally provide the same health guidance that doctors have given for decades – walk more, don’t drink too much alcohol, and maintain a healthy weight. You don’t need an expensive device and constant checking of metrics to comply with that advice. The cutting of the birthday cake stopped further discussion.

While the well-being and health functions on smartwatches do, of course, encourage good health and lifestyle habits for those individuals that need such prompts, many who glance at their smartwatch dozens of times a day to check their metrics are doing so unnecessarily. Does this habitual attention to the likes of step count, heart rate, sleep quality, and sitting too long simply illustrate that people are becoming needlessly addicted to another digital device? Possibly. Smartwatch firms are profit-motivated businesses not health services, and concern about profiling, advertising, and losing control of sensitive personal data would be prudent. Remember, it’s cheaper and better for privacy to simply do what the doctor’s ordered for decades, namely walk more, drink less alcohol, and maintain a healthy weight. Concentrate on living life rather than being a slave to metrics provided by your smartwatch. After all, the Badgers sprightly uncle has reached 90 years of age by doing just that…

UK Smart Meter rollout – will new targets make a difference?

Reading the status of the UK’s rollout of Smart Meters to consumers just reinforces how woeful this programme continues to be. At the end of March 2025, 61% of all domestic meters were smart operating in ’smart mode’, and in the latest data published a few days ago this number rose to just 63% at the end of June 2025. It’s pretty clear that this programme, running since 2012, has years left to run before all households have a properly functioning smart meter. When launched in 2012, consumers were told this programme would modernise and empower their energy use, support a greener grid, ensure accurate bills and lower costs, and be complete by 2019. The reality for people, who are paying for the programme and its delays through their energy bills, has been somewhat different.

By the end of December 2025, the current rollout targets – much revised since 2019 – require suppliers to have ‘delivered’ smart meters to 74.5% of domestic premises. Note that the target is not ‘delivered and operating in smart mode’. The government is consulting suppliers  on a post-2025 framework to deliver service improvements and an  obligation to complete the domestic rollout by 2030. It feels like ‘Deja vu’! The government asserts that the rollout so far provides robust evidence that consumers with smart meters are achieving sustained savings of 3% for electricity and 2.2% for gas. That’s hardly impressive for a £13bn programme. In fact, most people feel that any reduction in their energy use has been driven by cost of living and energy crisis factors, not smart meters. The Badger thinks those associated with energy policy seem unable to recognise the programme for what it is – a ‘White Elephant’ in the eyes of the domestic consumer.

Why is it a ‘White Elephant’? Well, there’s missed targets with the goal of having properly functioning smart meters in every home being revised many times and probably being delivered a minimum of 10 years late. There’s the ballooning costs with consumers footing the bill and seeing little tangible return. There’s the technical failures with many installed meters not functioning properly and first-generation SMETS1 meters losing functionality and turning ‘dumb’ when switching suppliers. There’s the poor programme strategy from the outset, something obvious when comparing with more successful rollouts in Italy, Spain, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Japan, the USA and China. There’s also the abject failure to overcome consumer distrust and show them savings in their energy bills. The Badger is resisting the temptation to go on.

After more than 13 years, adverts like those here and here haven’t changed UK consumer scepticism. Consumers are distrustful, technology has moved on, delivery by politicians and suppliers is poor, and a new framework for 2026 onwards is only going to achieve one thing – give this elephant another lick of white paint…

AI – Pop goes the weasel!

The Badger’s five-year old grandson, full of energy, innocence, and inquisitiveness, has been staying for a few days. It’s been fun, tiring, and a reminder that grandparents can be important influencers for Generation Alpha!  It was also a reminder that today’s childhood is vastly different to that of previous generations. The Badger’s grandson considers being on WhatsApp video calls, watching kids YouTube videos, and engaging with technology like phones, tablets, and laptops in classroom and home settings as routine. This wasn’t the case when the Badger was five, nor was it when the youngster’s Millennial parents were that age!

One evening, just before the lad’s bedtime, the Badger was on the sofa engrossed in the news feed on his smartphone. Reports of anxiety that AI is a stock market bubble about to pop had grabbed his attention. Some reports (like the one here), but certainly not all, derived from a report from MIT noting that most AI investments made by companies have so far provided zero returns. This fuelled concerns, existing in some quarters for a while, that AI is a stock market bubble soon to crash. Many of the reports drew parallels between AI and the dot.com crash of 25 years ago. As a professional in the IT sector at that time, the Badger experienced first-hand the dot.com era and its aftermath, and so he became absorbed in his own thoughts about the parallels. Until, that is, his grandson jumped on the sofa, prodded the Badger’s ribs, and asked to watch a ‘Pop goes the weasel’ cartoon. Initially struck by the synergy between ‘Pop goes the weasel’ as a good label for his AI thoughts, a suitable YouTube cartoon was found and the two of us watched it on the Badger’s smartphone. (A kids punk-music version of the rhyme didn’t seem suitable just before bedtime).

Once the youngster was in bed, the Badger cogitated further on the dot.com era and AI. The late 1990s saw rapid tech advances with many investors expecting internet-based companies to succeed simply because the internet was an innovation. Companies launched on stock markets even though they had yet to generate meaningful revenue or profits and had no proprietary technology or finished products. Valuations boomed regardless of dodgy fundamentals, and the dot.com crash was thus, to those with objectivity, inevitable. To an extent, some of the same dynamics exist with AI today. It may be a transformative technology, with the likes of ChatGPT having impressive traction with people, but AI is really still in its infancy striving to show a return on investment in a company setting. The Badger senses, therefore, that AI is likely in  sizeable correction rather than dot.com crash territory. This should be no surprise, because the history of tech stock market valuations suggests, to quote the nursery rhyme, ’that’s the way the money goes. Pop goes the weasel’… 

Nuclear reactors on the moon – a geopolitical investment in future dominance of Space…

The building of software and systems for Space missions, and to control satellites and process associated data, was an interesting and  fascinating area throughout the Badger’s IT career. Today it’s easy to forget that the imagery we take for granted with the weather forecast is produced by systems and software created by developers with excellent science,  engineering, and computing credentials, most of whom have little interest in working outside the Space sector. The Badger observed, over the years, that developers in this area often preferred to leave for another Space sector company rather than be assigned to a project outside the sector if there was a lull in available projects.

The Badger thus had two initial thoughts when the US announced an acceleration of its plans to put a nuclear reactor on the moon. The first was ‘Great. More opportunities for developers in the Space sector if AI hasn’t taken their jobs’. The second was more philosophical and about the tension between visionary ambitions and pragmatic, grounded responsibility. The US plan, and the equivalents of Russia and China, is driven by a mix of strategic, technological, and geopolitical motives. However, is it sensible and in humanity’s interest for the Earth’s most powerful nations to spend huge amounts of money on Space endeavours when there’s a pressing need for it to be spent resolving problems on our planet? Should there be investment in long-term Space infrastructure that might, a long time from now, redefine humanity’s future? The answers depend, of course, on your perspective on life and our world.

Some see Space endeavours as a driver of innovation and ultimate human survival, whereas others see them as distractions from addressing real problems here on Earth. To the Badger, all plans for a nuclear reactor on the moon simply illustrate the shift away from an ethos of inquisitive exploration to one of establishing national strategic dominance making Space a domain of economic leverage, diplomacy, and warfare. Regardless of who does it, putting a reactor on the moon is an outright geopolitical investment in establishing future dominance. The prospect of the geopolitical tensions we see on Earth playing out on the Moon and beyond seems, at least to the Badger, grotesque.

Investments in Space endeavours push technological boundaries, reshape thinking, and stimulate innovation, but the fact is that humans are biologically unsuited to the environment beyond our planet is undeniable. So, in an age of automation, robotics, and AI, why spend huge sums sending and supporting humans on the Moon and beyond when robots can do the same job and the savings can be used to address humanity’s issues here on Earth? Is that idealism? Perhaps, but all it would take is leadership on behalf of all of humanity rather than individual nations. And there’s the rub, the likelihood of that ever happening, of course, is…er…zero.

Late payments to subcontractors and suppliers…

Enterprises often hold an annual leadership conference to review the highs, lows, and lessons from the year, and to align their leaders with the business objectives for the year ahead. The Badger first attended such a conference decades ago when all attendees were gathered in the same place for an intense couple of days of formality and informal networking with peers. Enterprises today are increasingly sensitive about the logistical costs and environmental issues associated with gathering people in one place. Many such leadership conferences have thus become more hybrid in nature with smaller, distributed gatherings connected using online video streaming services. This very modern, tech-based approach has many benefits in terms of cost and convenience.

Although the Badger’s first annual leadership conference was a long time ago, he still remembers vividly a particular point made by the company CEO during a presentation lamenting the difficulties of being an IT subcontractor delivering  projects into client’s major programmes. The point was ‘Being a subcontractor is great, but being the prime contractor controlling when a subcontractor gets paid is much, much, much better!’  For some of its projects, the company had been struggling to get prime contractors to pay valid invoices for achieved milestones within contracted terms. The prime contractors had played all kinds of games to pay their subcontractors and suppliers when it suited them, rather than to what was written in their agreed contracted terms. They knew that apart from chasing and whining, subcontractors and suppliers were unlikely to take more forthright action because they wanted to avoid lasting damage to the client relationship in case it excluded them from potential future work opportunities.

Since then, UK legislation in 1998  has made provision for interest on late payment under commercial contracts. However, recent information suggests that only 1 in 10 subcontractors/suppliers enforce this right by actively charging interest, claiming compensation, or seeking debt recovery. This suggests that some level of reluctance remains due to concern about damaging customer relations,  especially for smaller businesses who are, after all, the majority of the UK economy and often heavily dependent on a small number of clients. It may be decades later, but the CEO’s point noted above remains relevant.

Cash flow difficulties can cause liquidity crises and even collapse for any size of enterprise, and so when the Badger heard that the UK government is introducing tougher late payment legislation his first thought was not alleluia, but why hasn’t AI and automation revolutionised payment processing in enterprises to ensure that payments  against valid invoices are always fully paid within contracted terms?  After all, digital technology has been transforming everything for years, and so perhaps this new legislation will add momentum to making a payment revolution happen faster. Let’s hope so. By the way, if you’re interested, you can check how well an enterprise does in paying within terms using the government tool here

Gold, e-waste, and a dependence on physical innovation…

There’s a large Acer tree in the Badger’s garden with masses of delicate leaves which rustle sweetly when there’s a hint of breeze. In the Summer it’s a great place to sit in the shade under its branches with a cold beer. In the UK’s heatwave that’s exactly what the Badger did to escape the sun’s rays, read, track online interests, and cogitate about life. He’s probably drunk more cold beer than prudent but chilling out in this way allows the mind to be stimulated by something you read, at least that’s the case with the Badger. You can predict neither the trigger in advance, nor how your thoughts will develop to a conclusion once they’re triggered. So, what caught the Badger’s eye and triggered the stream of thought that prompted the writing of this post? It was reading that an interdisciplinary team of scientists has found a new and sustainable way to recover gold from e-waste (see here and here). 

The Badger’s interest was piqued because of his metals/materials research background prior to a career in IT during which a latent interest in metals/materials never entirely disappeared. Gold, recovering it from e-waste, and e-waste itself, are fascinating topics given this metal’s unique properties. The total amount of gold ever mined makes just a 22-metre sided cube, and tiny quantities are used in smartphones, computers, and most other electronic devices. E-waste is any electrical or electronic equipment that’s been discarded, working or not. We all have some – perhaps an old MP3 player, smartphone, or tablet – somewhere in a drawer or cupboard. E-waste volumes, containing gold and other important elements, are growing but less than 25% of it is collected and recycled.  A new, sustainable, cheaper, and less hazardous way of recovering gold from it is an important development, especially if we stop hoarding our old devices in the first place!

Once triggered, where did the Badger’s thoughts end up? They meandered but concluded something about innovation, a subject that seems to be dominated in the mainstream by AI and new services in the virtual digital world. But here’s the point. None of this virtual digital innovation could exist without underlying ‘true physical innovation’ in the world of metals and materials. Without innovation in the science, extraction, processing, manufacturing, and recycling of condensed matter none of the electronic devices we rely on in the online digital world of today and tomorrow would exist. Youngsters looking for a stable and fertile career path should thus consider the physics and chemistry of metals/materials because the world today and in the future  depends more and more on innovation in this field. One thing, however, is a certainty. You never know what will trigger your thoughts and where they will take you if you relax with a cold beer in the shade under a tree in a heatwave….

Smartwatch, traditional watch, or both?

Is there a smartwatch from the likes of Apple, Samsung, Huawei and others, on your wrist? A decade ago, smartwatches were essentially novelties for tech enthusiasts. Today they’re mainstream. In the ten years since Apple unveiled its first watch  they’ve become a popular, wrist-worn, command and control centres for time, date, productivity aids, communication, fitness and personal health.  Globally there are more than 450 million smartwatches in use, and the number is expected to rise to ~750 million by 2029. Many people are turning to smartwatches from traditional mechanical/ automatic watches because they do significantly more than just tell the time and their capabilities continue to expand as technology marches on.

So, does this mean the traditional wristwatch, which first appeared in the 19th century, will soon be obsolete? Many say yes, but the Badger thinks otherwise. A traditional mechanical/automatic watch performs its purpose of providing the time and date  extremely well. Accordingly, it’ll be around for many decades yet because it has design simplicity, is robust, doesn’t require frequent battery charging or software updates, and is immune to cyber threats. Traditional watches provide their core function – the time and date – in aesthetically pleasing hardware that can be chosen to suit any lifestyle or occasion. Many think that a traditional watch’s lack of connectivity to today’s online world is a disadvantage. On the contrary, the Badger thinks it’s an advantage.

Smartwatches, of course, come in many guises but one thing fundamentally drives their design, namely convenient access to the services and information that underpin the rhythm of life in the modern digital world. Their manufacturers routinely enhance their design, functionality, and usability as a wrist-based hub for time, date, and things like voice and message communication, activity and fitness tracking, and personal health monitoring and diagnostics. As a convenient computer on our wrists, however, they are yet another screen that grabs attention. They need regular battery recharges and software and security updates to protect against cyber threats. Like smartphones, there’s also a better model coming soon!

So, are smartwatches rendering traditional mechanical/automatic watches obsolete? No. Why not? Because most people today understand the dangers of the digital world, and they are increasingly aware from world events of the inconvenience and turmoil that can ensue when key energy, communication, and online infrastructure is damaged. Their smartwatch could be rendered useless in such circumstances, whereas a traditional mechanical or automatic watch will continue to deliver its core function, time and date, unabated. So don’t ditch your traditional watch for a smartwatch, have and use both (as the Badger does). You will then always be able to access the time and date on your wrist should a digital disaster occur. The obsolescence of traditional watches is a long way off because in the current world climate it’s prudent to have non-digital contingencies for unexpected digital difficulties…

Everyone is a salesperson…

Good senior leaders and managers often enjoy being invited to speak to employees attending company training courses. The Badger certainly did. His sessions not only always delivered a message relevant to the training course but also provided an opportunity for attendees to ask questions about any subject close to their heart. Their questions were often diverse and required quick thinking to answer, but that’s what made the sessions fun! It was always rewarding to see attendees relax during the sessions, to hear their responses to the Badger’s answers, and to observe body language when the audience stayed silent. It was also pleasing when ‘light bulb’ moments spread across the attendees faces if an answer triggered a rush of understanding.

As a leader strongly focused on IT delivery, the Badger spoke mainly to training course groups from the business operation, delivery, and technical communities. Their questions were sometimes unusual. For example, on one occasion the Badger was asked ‘I hear senior people utter their favourite sayings frequently, but which of these have merit because they encapsulate a truth?’  The Badger gathered his thoughts for a moment before rattling off a string of common phrases in use in the company and signalling that they all had merit because they all captured a truth relevant in any company. The string included, for example, the following:     

‘What gets measured gets done…

‘You don’t jump high unless the bar’s set high…’

‘If you bring problems then bring solutions too…’

‘Time is precious, get to the point…’

‘Decisions aren’t about making everyone happy…’

‘Everyone is a salesperson…’

This last one prompted an indignant response from a couple of attendees who were software engineers. They were contemptuous of  salespeople and unequivocal that  they were not, and never would be, a salesperson. On enquiring if they interacted with peers in their client’s organisation on their projects they answered yes. The Badger pointed out that they were actually representing the company when they interacted with external people, and that made them a salesperson of sorts regardless of their job title. He also highlighted that being ‘sales aware’ during such interactions was important because they were well placed to identify the early signs of potential avenues of further work which could be fed into the company’s main sales machinery for qualification and potential follow-up by others. They remained unpersuaded, and so the Badger pointed out that without sales the company would fail, and they would be out of a job! Their facial expressions changed as a ‘light bulb’ moment hit home on realising that even technical IT staff must be commercially and sales aware and acknowledge that ‘Everyone is a salesperson’ of sorts. ‘Sales’ is not a dirty word. It is at the heart of a company’s success and the employment of everyone within it. Remember, everyone is a salesperson…

Once upon a time there was the Strategic Defense Initiative (Starwars)…

There comes a time when a room at home needs a decorative refresh. That time recently came in the Badger household, and so he deployed his practical skills to refurbish the room himself. The project was planned, agreed with an important stakeholder (the wife), and fastidiously executed. The room’s now in the post-delivery phase with the small list of defects pointed out at acceptance by the important stakeholder now corrected. Painting walls listening to good music playing on the radio during the project proved a more satisfying experience than expected. On finishing one wall, and while stepping back admiring his handiwork, the Badger found himself listening to the broadcaster’s regular news bulletin and sighing deeply on hearing that President Trump had unveiled plans for a ~$175 billion US ‘Golden Dome’ missile defence system. Memories of President Reagan’s 1983 Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI) came flooding back.

The goal of SDI was to develop a system that could intercept and destroy incoming nuclear missiles, effectively shielding the USA from a potential Soviet attack during the Cold War. Many dubbed it ‘Star Wars’ because of its proposed use of space-based technology. At the time, the Badger was working on the software design and development of a Relational Database Management System (RDMS) product – pretty cutting edge at the time. He remembers thinking that SDI would never come to fruition. Indeed, SDI itself was never fully realised, but its ideas have shaped military technology and policies in Missile and Space-based defence, Cybersecurity strategy, and International Collaboration ever since.

Rolling forward 40 years, the world is a quite different place geopolitically, technologically, economically, and militarily. Daily civilian and military life now depends on digital capabilities that didn’t exist in 1983, and continued rapid tech advances, innovation and AI are changing both domains at a rate never imagined just a few decades ago. Reagan’s SDI initiative and President Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’ share some similarities, but whilst the available tech in 1983 meant the former’s space-based missile defence was largely theoretical, President Trump’s benefits from modern, real, sophisticated satellite, space, sensor, and missile technologies. ‘Golden Dome’ revives elements of SDI but it also suffers from some of the same challenges, particularly, around cost, scepticism about its effectiveness, and concern that it dramatically escalates the global arms race. It’s certain, however, that just as happened when SDI was announced in 1983, military and tech sector commercial organisations will be relishing the prospect of picking up ‘Golden Dome’ contracts regardless of whether its stated ambitions will ever fully come to fruition.

But why did the Badger sigh so deeply on hearing about ‘Golden Dome’ on the radio? It was simply an instant reaction to the feeling that it’s another step on the road to creating the Terminator film’s SKYNET system for real, and that our species seems intent on a path that can lead to eventual self-inflicted extinction.