Category: International Relations

June – A month of notable events…

Posted on by The Information Badger in AI, Conflict, Defence, Information Technology, International Relations, Life, Security, social media

June is proving to be a month of notable events. So far there’s been the 82nd anniversary of D-Day, a horrific incident in Northern Ireland, the UK Defence Secretary’s resignation over Defence funding, the announcement that the UK is banning social media for under 16s, the SpaceX IPO, President Trump’s 80th birthday, and the conclusion of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the US and Iran. Apart from the D-Day anniversary, however, none of these events is a great advert for the underlying dynamics of today’s world.

It’s been obvious for years that UK Defence is behind the curve given modern threats, and that parents want action on social media. Many people think that an IPO which makes Elon Musk the planet’s first trillionaire is a cause for worry rather than celebration, and that the limits to US global dominance have been exposed by the conflict with Iran. A concluded MOU is not a comprehensive resolution. President Trump is now 80 and it looks as if his age and modus operandi may become his, and his country’s, Achilles heel. Others may have a different perspective, but all of these events have fed the sense of dislike in the way the world’s going that’s widespread amongst the general public.

Technology, one way or another, pervades all these events, and the UK Defence Secretary’s resignation and the ban on social media for under 16s are particular home turf items. The nature of warfare has changed, as is demonstrated daily in Ukraine and the Middle East, and more funding is needed to adapt and ensure UK readiness to address modern threats. The Defence Secretary resigned on realising there wasn’t going to be funding to an adequate level. Consequently, the government is now scrambling to demonstrate to the electorate that it takes defence of the realm seriously. Regardless of the availability of the right military equipment, our military seems ‘light’ for a country with 70 million people when all its personnel can fit into Wembley Stadium plus the Twickenham Rugby stadium with ~20,000 seats to spare.

The social media ban is a dramatic change in the government’s position. Why? Probably because its reluctance to upset President Trump and the US tech giants has been usurped by the Prime Minister’s need of a legacy as he is on an exit path! An unkind point, perhaps, but one likely veined with truth. Most people see the ban for under 16s as good news and they don’t care what President Trump, or the US tech giants, think because they are savvier about, and becoming more resistant to, the surveillance capitalism of social media giants and their unconstrained role in the AI race.

There’s plenty of opportunity for more notable events in the rest of June. Perhaps one will be Iran doing better than the USA in the World Cup. Time, as always, will tell…

Delhi, AI, and a rosy future for IT services companies?

Posted on by The Information Badger in AI, Business, Information Technology, International Relations, Software engineering, Technology, Transformation

‘For the times, they are a-changin’ sang Bob Dylan in the 1960s. This is particularly apt today given four recent matters which, in the broadest sense, have IT at their core.

First, Meta’s CEO has testified for the first time before a jury to defend against accusations that Meta’s social media platforms harm children’s mental health, and that their platforms are designed to prioritise keeping users scrolling to maximise profits. The trial’s outcome could prove seismic. Second, ‘Epstein Data’ has triggered an inevitable media and political frenzy and repercussions for some individuals, but it has produced little so far that would stand up in a court of law. Nevertheless, ‘Epstein data’ is a reminder of the dangers of email, and that using services underpinned by IT always leaves a record somewhere. The third matter is the impact of AI-driven fears on the share prices of major IT services companies. Investors are anxious about the future demand for IT consulting/services. At the time of writing, the share prices of Accenture, Capgemini, CGI, Sopra Steria, Tata Consultancy Services, and Infosys have dropped by 42%, 36%, 36%, 32%, 28%, and 27%, respectively, over the last 12 months. The market is taking a sober look at the impact of AI.

And the fourth is the AI Impact Summit in Delhi, the largest ever global gathering of world leaders and tech bosses, which ended with 88 nations signing the ‘Delhi Declaration of AI Impact’. Some have called this the ‘Delhi Magna Carta’ to emphasise that it represents a milestone in global cooperation, and consensus about AI’s use for economic growth and social good. The Declaration, however, is not legally binding, and so calling it a Magna Carta is a political metaphor rather than a formal treaty. The Declaration’s a political statement of principles which are far from certain to be embedded into national/international laws, standards, and institutions. A hint about why it may ultimately have little influence is captured by a USA comment which is reported in the item here. The comment is that the USA will not accept ‘global governance of AI’. Why? Because it and China are locked in a structural competition over computational power, microchips, AI-enabled defence systems, and the control of global standards. It’s existential for both and the Declaration doesn’t change that.

Unsurprisingly today ‘For the times, they are a-changin’ is an even louder truth, both geopolitically and for IT services companies and their employees. Dario Amodel, CEO of Anthropic, foresees AI eliminating the jobs of many software engineers. It’s always been important for IT and tech companies to be fleet of foot and for IT people to keep their skills current. The Delhi Declaration highlights that this is more important than ever. With AI-driven transformation gathering pace, the market is showing that a rosy future for IT service companies, and their employees, is not guaranteed…

Three pillars for success – a rule-of-thumb…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Information Technology, International Relations, IT Project Management, Leadership, Project Management, Tariffs, Transformation

If you run a company, business unit, programme, project, or service, then you want it to be successful, don’t you? Of course you do. Many sources can guide you on what to do to ensure success, but in simple terms there are, in the Badger’s experience, essentially three pillars to get right. These are Objectives (clarity on what you’re setting out to achieve), Approach (the approach you take to communicate and align others with your objectives), and Plan (the schedule to deliver your expected beneficial outcomes). Having encountered many IT business and delivery successes and failures over the years, the Badger has a simple rule-of-thumb that if all three pillars are set well, then success will follow. If, however, one or more pillar is dysfunctional then turmoil and disappointment is inevitable.

Applying his rule-of-thumb to the current tariff war initiated by the US suggests that the success of this endeavour is far from certain. Are the US administration’s objectives clear, well-founded, and well-articulated? Is an approach based on bullying, bluster, and distorted information, the right one? Is there a thought-through plan that has factored in the risks? You’ll have your own view on the answers. The Badger, however, senses the current ‘gunslinger’ approach points more towards ‘no’ rather than ‘yes’ answers. When the US claims that all countries (allies and foes) have ‘raped, pillaged, and plundered’ the US economy when its giant tech companies have ‘raped, pillaged, and plundered’ everyone’s data globally then, whatever the tariff war outcome, it’s clear that things will never be the same again.

This democratically elected US administration took office just a few months ago and has bullied allies and foes alike ever since. Public pronouncements have been bellicose and relationships with nations around the world have undoubtedly been shaken by the US’s brutal, opening tariff war salvo. Erstwhile friends and foes alike are in the throes of protecting their national interests knowing that the geopolitical and trading landscape  is changing significantly. Capitulation to US bullying tactics seems unlikely, especially when other countries know that the US public will likely to feel great, self-inflicted, pain.

The Badger’s feels a) that at least two pillars of the US administration’s tariff endeavour are wobbly, b) that this US administration will declare success regardless of the eventual outcome, and c) that the US is already a loser. Why the latter? Well, the US may be the world’s biggest economy, but respect for the country has been damaged, and once lost that respect is difficult to rebuild. If you ignore the inevitable spin and bluster, announcements in the last 24-hours suggest some US back-pedalling in the light of market chaos and growing global economic disquiet. History shows that world superpowers rise and fall, and it feels like the US star is waning and China’s is rising. The most satisfying thing for the Badger, however, is that his pillars rule-of-thumb still seems to work pretty well!