Will AI experience a ‘tobacco moment’?

The Badger smiled and then sighed when Meta and YouTube were recently found liable for harming a young woman through the addictive design of their products and their failure to warn users of the risks. The smile was because it’s good to see tech giants not getting their own way. The sigh was because it’s taken far too many years to get to this point. Sensible people have known for years that these apps are designed to keep users compulsively engaged for as long as possible because it’s the clever monetisation of this that underpins their business models.

The Badger recalls the early days of social media when it simply helped people stay in touch, share milestones, and reconnect with old friends. In those days there was a clear divide between real and online life. Conversations ended on leaving a room or putting the phone down, photographs lived in physical albums, and social media was used as a harmless tool and not something that shaped or dominated how we lived. Today things are quite different. Social media has grown in power, profitability, and influence, to such an extent that the average person spends more time online using it than is prudent. What’s changed since those early days is the design of the apps and platforms. Endless scrolling, algorithm-driven recommendations, push notifications, and short video loops aren’t accidental. They’re features engineered to keep people engaged for as long as possible. Indeed, the BBC was reporting way back in 2018 that social media apps were deliberately addictive to users. The Badger thinks all this has certainly eroded the real-world routines, relationships, and boundaries for users over the last decades.

In the Meta and YouTube case, the prosecution lawyers have cleverly focused on how platforms are designed rather than what’s posted on them to win. The two giants plan to appeal but it’s debatable whether the appeals will succeed. Social media is thus having to grapple with the fact that this could be a reckoning similar to that experienced by the tobacco industry some decades ago. This ‘tobacco moment’ prompted the Badger to muse on whether AI will ultimately experience such a moment too. He concluded that it will. AI has the potential to harm institutions, elections, markets, information ecosystems, and critical infrastructure, and so its reckoning moment could happen faster, globally, and structurally. The possible triggers might relate to bias, misinformation, autonomy, and safety failures. Like the ‘tobacco moment’ for social media, AI’s moment will not be about banning it, but about liability.

A ‘tobacco moment’ isn’t about a single lawsuit. It happens when society collectively decides that an industry has externalized too much harm and the legal, regulatory, and cultural tides all turn at once. It seems foolhardy, therefore, to think that AI will be immune to a ‘tobacco moment’ of its own at some stage in the future…

Rage against the screen…

The Badger’s 6-year-old grandson likes trains! Books about trains, Brio train sets, and Lego trains are favourite toys, but seeing and riding on real trains brings a special sparkle to his eyes. He loves to watch steam engines chuff along the Watercress Line, see historic locomotives in museums, ride miniature railways at visitor attractions, and travel on the regular trains that commuters use every day. He’s fascinated by how trains work, which is great, but his persistent questions about ‘how’ and ‘why’ can sometimes be wearing!

Last weekend the Badger and his grandson did something that didn’t relate to trains. We visited the Tangmere Military Aviation Museum, a small place with a number of static military jets as well as memorabilia from when Tangmere was a World War II RAF fighter base. The visit spawned an observation about 6-year-olds that he had not anticipated. At each exhibit there’s a computer that can be used to engage with the exhibit’s story, pull up photographs, and watch film clips. At many exhibits it’s possible to sit in the cockpit, peer into the fuselage, and use a computerized simulator. The Badger’s grandson observed that planes are engineered and work differently to trains!

It was all fun, but the Badger noticed that his grandson preferred using the computers rather than engaging physically with the exhibit itself. For example, the Canberra has part of the fuselage removed so visitors can easily lean in to see the environment around the pilot and crew. Adjacent to the jet is a computer showing images streamed from a camera mounted inside the fuselage. The camera can be panned through 360 degrees using a mouse and the user can zoom in on any part of the pilot and crew area. This 6-year-old used this computer rather than physically looking inside the fuselage. This preference was clear with other exhibits too. Seeing that ‘the screen’ had a greater pull with the youngster than exploring the exhibit physically made the Badger uneasy. If youngsters in their early formative years prefer screens to engaging with the physical real world, then we should surely all be worried.

On the car radio driving home, the Badger listened to the CEO of Mumsnet, being interviewed about Mumsnet’s Rage against the Screen’ campaign which is calling on politicians to ban social media for under-16s, stop Big Tech using data to target children with addictive algorithms, and to put children’s safety and wellbeing ahead of platform profits. The Badger found himself agreeing with the points made. In the UK, you must be 16 years or older to do many things (see here), so why not ban social media for under 16s? If the Badger’s grandson is already ‘virtual rather than physical world first’ at the age of 6, then ‘Raging against the Screen’ is surely a campaign that needs to succeed…   

Untruth Social…

The Badger is not a journalist, a member of any political party, or a subscriber to any particular ideology. He’s just a member of the UK public whose blog normally avoids commenting on the pronouncements of the ‘global elites’ who recently gathered in Davos, Switzerland. Today is, however, an exception because President Trump’s recent utterances were an insulting word-salad where facts seemed irrelevant. Here are a few points from the Badger’s cogitation on the President’s various comments and positions.

The first point is that President Trump has been democratically elected and so we must assume that his policies and approach, whether domestic or foreign, have the support of the American people. The second is that he and this US administration are brutally ruffling feathers domestically in the US and internationally. The President has taken many positions to date that have validity, and many that don’t, but his bullying has changed how his country is viewed by the public beyond the USA’s shores forever.

The third point is that people in Europe feel that the USA is no longer a trusted ally. Trust takes years to build, seconds to break, and forever to repair. President Trump’s utterances have broken that trust. No one trusts a Russian because of President Putin, and now no one trusts an American because of President Trump! The fourth point is that this elderly President’s utterances fully highlight a character with a need for personal attention, praise, admiration and that they are always right on everything. A President who publishes emails from the leaders of longstanding allies and asserts that the UK army was not ‘a frontline fighter’ in Afghanistan is, frankly, untrustworthy, and undeserving of anyone’s respect.

So, here’s the final point. The old adage ‘don’t get angry, get even’ seems apt. National governments recognise their relationship with the US has changed and that adapting to a new future will be challenging. Governments may be angry but getting even is much more difficult for them. Ordinary members of their public, however, have more power to get even than they realise. The US stock market is heavily dependent on the performance of tech stocks. If ordinary members of the public in Europe collectively stopped using social media and streaming services for just one week then the big US tech giants’ revenues would be hit. If everyone stopped using social media for one week every month then the hit would soon mount to a crisis. Investors avidly track engagement metrics, and so stock prices could drop sharply because if users aren’t scrolling, money-making ads aren’t being served. The market impact could be problematic for President Trump.

In a world dominated by social media, streaming, and online services, it’s worth remembering that ordinary people have more power in their hands to register displeasure than most realise. Perhaps it’s time to change our behaviour and wield that power…

Social media: The same trajectory as tobacco?

A New Year is fast approaching. For many it’s a time of joy and optimism, but for others it can be a daunting, sad, and worrying prospect. Christmas and the New Year period for the Badger’s family is about getting together whatever the circumstances. When we do, there’s always a discussion about the future of the tech world and so the Badger’s been musing on the subject in preparation. One of his conclusions has been that foreseeing a future event isn’t as outrageous as it might seem if you look at history and compare it with present-day dynamics.

The Badger’s concluded, for example, that ‘social media will follow the same trajectory as other industries that have touched health, cognition and social order’. That’s not an outrageous conclusion when there are striking structural parallels between social media and, for example, the tobacco industry. The latter thrived for decades in a regulatory vacuum with products that were known to damage users’ health. Similarly, social media operates in an under-regulated space with products that keep users engaged to maximise profits regardless of the toll on public health. Whereas tobacco’s harm is biochemical and physiological, social media’s is cognitive, social, behavioural, and physical in a way that’s harder to see or measure. It hides it’s harm behind its convenience, utility, and benefits. Worrying about harmful content, its encouragement of habitual screentime leading to lower physical activity, lowering attention spans, and eroding emotional adaptability, is not misplaced because these are all bad for long term physical and mental health.

The tobacco industry was built on the underlying motives of maximum user engagement, maximum revenue, product optimisation for addictive behaviour, and resistance to regulation. Social media seems the same. With tobacco, law makers eventually ‘woke up’ because – as history shows with industries that touch human health, cognition, and social order – once harms and their cost become undeniable in the public domain, society always pushes back! At some stage this seems likely to happen with social media resulting in its radical transformation. Gradual reform rarely works when business models are not aligned with societal well-being, companies are financially and politically powerful, and consumers have become accustomed to products and services. Any transformation of social media, given the slow speed of regulation, seems a long way off unless something radical happens.

What could that something be? Well, history shows that radical change tends to come from economic collapse rather than moral awakenings or gradual reform. If the social media giants were to start making huge financial losses that collapse their share price, then radical change would happen because such shocks always force restructuring, regulation, and cultural re-evaluation. Is this plausible? Well, never say never! The Badger will be adopting ‘never say never’ as his reference point for everything during 2026. In the current world and tech climate, it seems silly to do otherwise…

The world needs Australia to succeed with banning those under 16 from major social media platforms…

Australia’s legislation banning the access of those under the age of sixteen from major social media platforms came into force today, 10th December. Its purpose is to protect children from harmful content, cyberbullying, and online predators. The major social media platforms are required to take reasonable steps to enforce age restrictions or face fines of up to AU$50 million. A neat item from Australia’s ABC on the topic can be found here.  Some platforms began locking out existing under-sixteen accounts and blocking new ones a couple of weeks ago.

Australia is the first country in the world to impose such a ban, and their move could be the first domino in a global trend given that debates are underway in many other countries about following suit. Supporters of the ban see it as a necessary safeguard against online harms and a way to hold the giant tech companies accountable. Critics and the social media companies, however, argue that the ban is blunt, hard to enforce, risks isolating teenagers, and raises privacy/digital rights concerns. After absorbing a wide variety of views expressed in the media by affected teens, parents, and industry and government commentators, the Badger asked himself, ‘who’s side are you on?’ He found the answer surprisingly easy.

From his own use of social media, the Badger thinks that society’s general moral decline is plain to see when misinformation and disinformation abound, and a lot of content amplifies unethical behaviour, distorts decent judgement, and attempts to reshape cultural values. Viral fame seems to reward scandals, outrage, and bad conduct, and constant exposure to divisive content fuels fear and outrage undermining the traditional values that have held communities together for generations. Today’s under-sixteens are vulnerable because they often model their behaviour on what they see online rather than on traditional role models. The Badger thus admires and supports Australia’s action because the major platforms have been too powerful for far too long. They are fast to act to make more money from users’ content, but slow to act on anything dubious or perceived as limiting their power and interests. Will more countries eventually follow Australia’s lead? Probably.

The ban’s critics assert that under-sixteens will simply find alternative ways to access the major platforms. That’s a hollow argument because it’s always been true that teenagers find ways around legal barriers. For example, there are laws about underage consumption of alcohol and smoking cigarettes, and yet it happens! Similarly, in his youth the Badger and his friends found ways of watching movies rated as inappropriate for our age at the local cinema. As has always been the case, the law puts a firm stake in the ground for society, and long may that continue. The world thus needs Australia to succeed with its ban, so let’s hope it does…

A musing about social media and ‘Black Friday’…

It’s ‘Black Friday’ in the UK on Friday and High Street and online businesses are marketing their ‘epic deals’. This year the Badger’s received a plethora of email notifications from organisations warning to be wary of online shopping scams as ‘Black Friday’ approaches. One from a UK bank has the opening line ‘Did you know that 70% of online shopping scams start on social media?’  Yes, the Badger already knows this. It’s just one of many facts about social media that illustrates that diligent wariness is necessary when using these platforms.

Today the public feel uneasy about the world which is the most unsettling and unstable it’s been for decades. Global tensions abound. Politics is highly polarised. Economies are fragile. Conflict abounds. Shocks are more frequent. Power seems to rest with the handful of billionaires that dominate the digital world, and so on. Earlier this week, the Badger and a plumber friend chatted over a seasonal mince pie and coffee about factors that may have facilitated the instability the public observes. The internet is to blame, the Badger’s friend suggested. However, we dismissed that and decided instead that while social media can’t be blamed for all the world’s woes, it has certainly played a part.

We concluded this because social media platforms often say they are ‘free speech zones’ while simultaneously curating communication to protect their own business models. They are, after all, not democracies but huge, controlled, money-making ecosystems where the primary liability for what’s posted rests with the poster, not the platform. The persistent misinformation, disinformation, and offensive, inflammatory, and deceptive material that can often be encountered on them polarises opinions and facilitates scams from any part of the globe. The US President’s suing of the BBC, we decided, simply illustrates that there’s one rule for social media and another for everyone else. Why? Because the platforms often provide equally reprehensible edited videos that appear to go unpunished. Many will disagree, but we decided that social media has poisoned attitudes and thus contributed to fuelling an unsettled world.

The message here is not that social media is completely bad. It’s simply a reminder to understand their underlying business model and to think carefully about what you post or view. Think about whether your social media interactions are contributing to the very unsettled and disrupted world we are currently experiencing. Remember that these platforms are not the bastions of free speech that many would have you believe. Free speech, at least here in the UK, existed long before the advent of giant money-making social media platforms. Finally, take care when shopping online for ‘Black Friday’. Be wary of ‘limited time’ or ‘selling fast’ offers from organisations with social media profiles that don’t seem right. If something looks too good to be true, then it’s probably not what it seems…

AI and trust…

Misinformation, disinformation, scams, and questionable videos have been commonplace aspects of social media for years. The Badger, like many, has become distrustful of content pushed to him by algorithms because normally it is not what it appears or purports to be. Three typical examples of content that’s helped to fuel the Badger’s distrust are as follows. The first is spectacular, obviously fake, video of shipping and aircraft incidents that put Hollywood movies to shame. The second is content from activist or political groups that criticise or parody others and promise a better future. Activist and political groups are unreliable and frequently blinkered with short memories. The third is incessant clickbait. Life’s too short to waste time clicking such links. Putting it diplomatically, you can tell by now that the Badger’s trust in what’s pushed to his social media feeds is not high.

AI, of course, is increasingly helping the producers of this content that’s led to this erosion of trust. As this report from the University of Melbourne in Australia highlights, there’s a complex relationship between AI adoption and trust. It reports that while 66% of its survey respondents use AI regularly and believe in its benefits, less than a half (46%) trust the AI they use. The Badger aligns with this finding. He’s an occasional user of AI, but he doesn’t trust it. This ‘trust gap’ – as the report highlights – is a critical challenge for AI’s wider adoption.

Reflecting on this has led the Badger to two conclusions. The first was that since anyone can create content with AI tools, it’s inevitable that the volume and sophistication of misinformation, disinformation, scams, and questionable video content in social media feeds will increase further. Soon the question to really ask yourself about social media feeds will no longer be ‘what’s fake?’… but ‘what’s real?’  The second conclusion was that this, society’s huge energy bill for AI, and its unsustainably high stock market valuations, are widening rather than closing the Badger’s ‘trust gap.’

AI tools are here to stay, but as the report above points out, the biggest challenge for AI is trust. As the common adage highlights, trust is the easiest thing in the world to lose, and the hardest thing in the world to get back. At present, it doesn’t feel as if AI is winning the battle for our trust. The Badger’s current overall feeling about the question of trust is nicely summed up by this passage from J.K. Rowling’s book Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets’. ‘Ginny!’ said Mr. Weasley, flabbergasted. ‘Haven’t I taught you anything? What have I always told you? Never trust anything that can think for itself if you can’t see where it keeps its brain?’  For the Badger, the last sentence of this passage, written over a decade ago, gets to the nub of the AI and trust issue…

A week without access to the online world…

Are you brave enough to survive for a week without accessing the online world using your personal smartphone, tablet, laptop, or desktop? This was the question asked by the Badger’s wife shortly before the Badger and his millennial son departed for a short adventure on the North Devon coast last week. We answered affirmatively but decided to take our smartphones, which would remain switched off all week, in case they were needed in an emergency. We all saw this as commonsense given our intent to walk the rugged North Devon coastal path which, at the time, was covered by a yellow weather warning for high wind and rain. With a little trepidation about relinquishing personal access to the virtual world by taking no laptops or tablets and only having switched off smartphones in our pockets, we departed for North Devon wondering how long it would take before we succumbed to turning on our phones. Did we survive the week without succumbing to temptation? Of course we did.

The first evening at our destination was unsurprisingly difficult given that everyone today has become conditioned to having instant access to communication, banking, shopping, social media, and the internet through personal devices. People in the UK, for example, apparently check their smartphones every ten minutes, so imagine how you’d feel if this wasn’t possible. It took an iron will, some beers, and some proper conversation about the world that evening to keep our discipline and not succumb to switching on our smartphones.

The subsequent days were easier. Walking the coastal path in blustery, variable weather concentrated the mind on real, rather than virtual, world matters. The dormant smartphones in our pockets provided reassurance as we walked, but they stayed unused because no emergencies arose. In fact, we never turned them on all week. On the final night of our stay, we visited a bar and reflected on our week of virtual-world disconnection while watching a magnificent sunset over a choppy sea. We realised that our ‘fear of missing out’ from having no access to the virtual world had disappeared within 48 hours of arriving in Devon. We were proud to have resisted the temptation to use our smartphones, and we felt that detachment from the online world, and its pushed content, had contributed to how refreshed we felt mentally and physically.

We drove home the next morning and then ceremonially turned on our smartphones. We had, as expected, missed nothing of substance by our detachment from the virtual world for a week. This prompted the Badger’s son to state that although the online world has its place in modern life, real life will always go on if it’s not there. That’s a truth. The question is, are you brave and disciplined enough to survive without access from personal devices to the online world the next time you take a short break? If not, why not?

Youngsters outsourcing their mental effort to technology…

Live Aid happened on Saturday 13th July 1985. If you were a young adult then, do you remember what you were doing when the concert happened? Were you there? Did you watch it live on television? The Badger had his hands full that day doing some home renovations while having a one-year-old baby in the house. He thus only saw snippets of the televised live concert. Last weekend, however, he made up for it by watching the highlights broadcast to celebrate the concert’s 40th anniversary.

Watching the highlights brought home why the music at the concert has stood the passage of time. It was delivered by talented people with great skill and showmanship without today’s cosseting production techniques and tech wizardry. What struck a chord most, however, was the enthusiasm of the Wembley Stadium crowd, the vast majority of whom are now grandparents in, or facing, retirement! People in that crowd had none of the internet access, smartphones, or online services we take for granted today. In 1985 the UK’s first cellular telephone services were only just being introduced by Cellnet and Vodafone, and ‘home computing’ meant the likes of the Sinclair ZX Spectrum and the BBC Micro. A far cry from today! Furthermore, those in that crowd represent a generation that thought for themselves and didn’t have their minds dulled by reliance on digital technology and internet-based online services. Their grandchildren, on the other hand, only know life based around the internet, and they often seem oblivious to the likelihood that their reliance on online things like social media might be dulling their minds, nudging them towards a passivity of thought, and perhaps ultimately causing atrophy of their brain.  

Concern about technology dulling human minds isn’t new. In 370 BC, for example, Socrates worried that writing would erode a person’s memory!  With AI endlessly expanding, however, the potential for today’s youngsters to completely outsource mental effort to technology seems very real. More and more  scientific evidence shows  that while the human brain is highly adaptable, digital immersion changes attentiveness, the way we process information, and decision-making. Some brain functions weaken due to digital immersion, others evolve, but the Badger thinks that when our digital world provides instant answers, the joy and effort of discovery through independent thought is dwindling. Always available digital content at our fingertips means fragmented attention spans and contemplation and reflection taking a back seat,  especially for youngsters with no life-experience without today’s online world.

Watching the 40th anniversary highlights thus did more than provide a reminder of the great music of that day. It brought home the fact that today’s  grandparents have something precious – a lived experience of independent thought and contemplation without an overreliance on our digital world. It feels, however, that their grandchildren are progressively outsourcing their mental effort to ever more advanced digital technology which, this grandfather senses, doesn’t augur well for the human race…

A career as a TikTok/Instagram influencer?

If a student says they intend to develop a career as a social media influencer on TikTok, Instagram (and other platforms), and they ask your opinion on their intent, what would you say? The Badger was put on the spot and asked this question during a discussion with a sizeable group of University students midway through their degree courses. Most in the group were studying various flavours of science, engineering, computing, or IT-based subjects. So, what did the Badger answer?

Well, to create a little time to marshal his thoughts, the Badger asked the group to raise a hand if they thought being a TikTok or Instagram influencer was a career path that needed a degree-level education? Only two students put a hand up. A couple commented dryly that most social media platform influencers had little underlying talent or expertise and were focused on their egos and gaining celebrity, notoriety, and money rather than something beneficial for today’s world. That’s harsh, but it’s an understandable perspective. Whether we like it or not, however, becoming a social media influencer is the aspiration of many young digital natives because it’s seen as an easy and convenient way to generate an income.

So, is being a social media influencer a real career path? Many believe so, ostensibly because some with that label make considerable sums of money through brand partnerships, sponsorships, advertising, and selling merchandise. They also perceive that influencers don’t need high educational qualifications although they must be adaptable and adept at analysing trends and staying relevant as audience preferences change. There’s no doubt that some influencers have skills in content creation, marketing, and audience engagement, and a natural charisma, and flair for storytelling, but the reality is that only a small percentage succeed in making a reasonable living from their efforts. Like in any career, success as an influencer on the likes of TikTok and Instagram requires some competence and skill, and so it would be foolish to suggest that being a social media influencer is not a legitimate career path in today’s world.

The Badger was thus careful when answering the student’s question. He simply communicated the advice given by his father when the Badger was first deciding to further his own education at University, namely ‘Get the best education you can in a subject you enjoy and are good at. Don’t pre-suppose how you’ll use that in the future because life has a habit of taking you in unexpected directions’. The students thought this was wise counsel because none of them thought they would secure jobs directly relevant to their degree subject. That’s a shame, but ever that’s been the case. They unanimously concluded that if you intend to have a career as a social media influencer, then it’s prudent to get the best education you can first.