Author: The Information Badger

Electric and self-driving vehicles for the masses? One day, but perhaps not soon…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Climate & Environment, Digital devices and the environment, Driverless transport, Internet of Things, IT Project Management, Systems Integration, Uncategorized

The Badger’s considered changing his trusty but aging car for something more current and greener. There’s plenty of choice in the market so it should be easy coming to a decision, shouldn’t it? Err, No.

Why not? Because if you want to spend your money wisely then you have to recognise that entropy in the transportation world is rising dramatically! Entropy, by the way, is a measure of disorder and it always increases with time (as per the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics). The Badger has certainly observed the world become increasingly disordered over his lifetime and this isn’t going to change in the future.

Disruption and disorder in the transport world are easy to see. For example, UK government policy is to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040. Electric vehicles (EVs) are deemed to be the future, even though their climate credentials aren’t quite as positive as you might think. Car manufactures are pushing ahead with EVs swiftly, but with a current market share of ~3% across Europe there’s much to do to overcome their limitations and convince the public. In addition, of course, technology marches forward and – if you believe it – self-driving cars will be common on UK roads from 2025 and might improve traffic flow by 35%. Hmm. These are all things to think about if you’re thinking of buying a car today and want to spend your money wisely.

The Badger cogitated and has concluded that the timelines for establishing EVs and self-driving vehicles for the masses on UK roads are very optimistic. Why? Firstly, progress on addressing EV range limitations, charging infrastructure, and take-up by the public is still slow (but improving). Secondly, there’s about 1 billion lines of software in a self-driving car which means there’ll be many bugs when operating and ‘integrating’ with other conventional and autonomous vehicles at scale in the real-world. Thirdly, while the UK government is to report on the autonomous vehicle regulatory framework in 2021, legislation moves slowly and political objectives are rarely met on time, especially at a time of political disorder. And finally, the ‘Introduction to Service’ phase of any programme that changes personal and societal behaviour always encounters difficulties and delay. It took decades for motor vehicles to replace horse and carts, and it will be a similar story for EVs and self-driving vehicles overtaking today’s conventional vehicles. It seems naïve to think otherwise.

So, what did the Badger decide about changing his car? Not to! Because if you do the analysis, currently that’s actually the cheapest, greenest and most future proof option as entropy rises further. Electric and self-driving vehicles for the masses will happen one day, but perhaps not as soon as the hype suggests…

Smart Meters; Hardly a success…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Climate & Environment, Digital devices and the environment, Digital Transformation, Education, Internet of Things, IT Project Management, Smart Meters, Uncategorized

If you’ve worked extensively on major technology-intensive programmes then you’ll know to expect bumps in the road as new hardware, software, communication networks and processes are introduced to users in the real world. So, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the UK Smart Meter programme is in the press again!

The target for every UK home to have been offered a smart meter by the end of 2020 isn’t going to be met. Rollout is stalling. Just look at the Q1 2019 rollout numbers! It isn’t credible that the target can be met, but the relevant government department ‘remains committed to ensuring every home has been offered a smart meter by the end of 2020’. This has to be taken with a pinch of salt when even the CEO of Citizens Advice – a charity helping citizens resolve life difficulties with free, independent, confidential advice – thinks the target is unfeasible and must be delayed to ~2023!

Delay means more cost, and the published estimates of consumer bills reducing by £300m/year in 2020 and £1.2bn/year by 2030 will inevitably be revised down. Who pays? The consumer. Although many technology professionals have worked very hard on this programme to get the new software, hardware and communication networks in place, the overall programme has the whiff of white elephant territory and it’s a struggle to see it as a good advert for major ‘Smart’ government initiatives.

Who’s at fault? No doubt many entities will point fingers at each other, but – as the November 2018 National Audit Office’s report noted – the buck stops with the government department that currently still ‘remains committed to ensuring every home has been offered a smart meter by the end of 2020’. The Badger has a simple view. The numbers don’t fib. The costs are ever rising. The business case must be stressed. Fault is rarely with a single entity; it rests collectively. What’s needed now is less rhetoric, spin and defensiveness, and more honesty, realism and greater respect for the end consumer in the roll out.

The 2018 Smart Meter Progress Report ends with the statement ‘the Government has committed to update the cost-benefit analysis for the Programme and complete a stock take of consumer benefits in 2019’. The outcome from this – if it happens – may be the uncomfortable reading that produces a trigger ‘event’ for ‘revision’ of the programme. Time will tell. Meanwhile the Badger not only saves money and the climate without a smart meter, but also avoids the higher tariffs levied by suppliers when consumers exercise their right not to have a smart meter. These may be digital times but one thing’s clear. £11bn and counting, stalling rollout to ambivalent consumers, delay, questionable cost/benefit and the whiff of white elephant are hardly success indicators…

Lest we forget; Today’s technology is tomorrow’s antiquity…

Posted on by The Information Badger in AI & Robotics, Education, Uncategorized

The last few days proved thought-provoking. Why? Firstly, the Badger went to a local travelling circus with very low expectations and came away amazed and incredulous! Apart from booking tickets online, the whole show was devoid of any kind of computing technology and it provided an incredible close-up of the raw skills of human beings and the capabilities of their minds and bodies.

Secondly, the Badger visited a local Classic Vehicle rally and was struck by the complete absence of electronics from road vehicles more than 40 years old, and the passion, creativity and ingenuity of owners in keeping their vehicles roadworthy in their original condition.

Thirdly, the Badger met a frail 95-year-old man who is going to the imminent 75th anniversary D-Day commemoration being attended by the Queen and the US President in Portsmouth. This old soldier is physically frail but is mentally sharp as a scalpel! After the commemoration he’s travelling to the Normandy D-day beach he landed on 75 years ago. It’s the first time he’s been back. His first words to the Badger were that he knew his days were numbered, but if his time was up on his journey then he wanted it to be on the beach where so many fellow soldiers and friends lost their lives or were injured. This was a truly inspiring human being. The Badger was humbled.

The old soldier was interested in the Badger’s IT background and so we chatted about computers, electronic gadgets, the internet and future robots for a few minutes. He smiled and said there were things described as ‘new technology’ in his D-Day era too, but he’d learned that when it failed – and it always did at some stage – it was the ingenuity, resilience and teamwork of people that mattered to ‘get the job done’. He quipped that it had always been the case through his life and that he’d learned that ‘today’s technology is quickly tomorrow’s antiquity’.

So, what thought did the circus, the Classic Vehicle rally, and the old soldier provoke in the Badger? Essentially an even deeper realisation that it’s people and not computers, social media, the internet, robots or smart phones that make life worth living! Technology will always have a place supporting human progress, but it must never aspire to be a substitute for the raw dedication, skills, capabilities and human spirit notable above. Obvious perhaps, but worth saying ‘Lest we forget’, – a very apt phrase as the D-Day commemorations loom.

Consumers; key to helping the planet…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Climate & Environment, Digital devices and the environment, Uncategorized

The doorbell rang. It was a group of political activists canvassing for this week’s EU elections. When the Badger opened the door, they immediately launched into a climate change pitch with phrases like ‘they haven’t done this’, and ‘they need to do that’. The frequent use of ‘they’ grated. They didn’t complete their pitch because the Badger terminated the conversation politely.

Surely dealing with climate issues starts with ourselves and not ‘they’ or someone else? After all, it’s us as consumers that are at the heart of many of the issues given the relentless acceleration of consumerism and technological advancement over the last 100 years. A good look at Oxford University’s ‘Our World In Data’ shows an obvious correlation between the accelerating consumerism, technological advancement and global temperature and rising CO2 emissions over the same period. So if each of us becomes just a bit less of a consumer then it helps address our planet’s challenges.

Technological progress over the Badger’s lifetime has been extraordinary, as neatly illustrated by the data available here and here. In the 1970s colour TVs were a luxury and had bulky cathode ray tubes, mainstream motor cars functioned without electronics, a fixed-line telephone did not exist in every home, and computers were the realm of big companies or public institutions. Today’s TVs are ‘smart’ and thin, cars don’t function without electronics, every person has a mobile telephone, and powerful personal computing devices are the norm. Such progress has been driven by Innovation (especially in the realm of electronics, communications, information storage and processing), Big Business, Consumers, and Oil.

The Badgers point is this. Consumers – you and me – are the most important of these drivers. Why? Because our habits and behaviour matters to the planet and ultimately influences the positions taken by business and governments. What you do matters. So next time you want a gadget of some kind, ask yourself if you really need it. If you don’t need it then don’t buy it. You’ll have helped the planet!

After the canvassers had gone the Badger went to the local supermarket and was astonished to see it as selling a plastic ring to keep an egg perfectly round when being fried. Why does such a product even exist? Does it serve a real need? Doubtful. Fortunately, it didn’t look as if any had been sold, which suggests us consumers are getting less fickle so there’s hope for the planet yet. We’re all consumers, but just because we can buy something doesn’t mean we should!

The Badger’s now looking forward to having this kind of discussion with the next group of political canvassers that come knocking on the door, if they’re brave enough of course.

Explaining what’s at the roots of AI to a gardener…

Posted on by The Information Badger in AI & Robotics, Education, Uncategorized

Over a creamy latte in the local Starbucks last week, an academic friend who was struggling with part of his lecture course to students asked the Badger “How would you explain the what’s at the roots of Artificial Intelligence and machine learning to your gardener?”. The Badger just gulped and took the easy option by saying ‘No idea’. Since then, however, the question has been in the Badger’s brain demanding an answer!

Of course, marketing pitches, academic papers, and short readable articles on AI and machine learning (ML) are readily available. One, for example, describing the difference between AI and ML simply is here. But an answer that simply refers to readily available content on the internet would be a cop out, so after much lateral, off the wall thought the Badger decided the answer a gardener might actually relate to involves mathematics!

Mathematics has evolved over thousands of years from simple counting to embrace calculation, measurement, geometry, algebra, trigonometry, logarithms, calculus, statistics and much more as well as today’s increasingly abstract sophistications. Mathematics is always evolving. Mathematical thinking in Alan Turing’s Enigma code cracking era was very different to that of Isaac Newton’s era, which itself was very different to that in the ancient times of Pythagoras or Archimedes. Indeed, mathematical thinking has evolved even further since Turing’s time. Without mathematics and its evolution, we would never convert science into the material inventions that progress humanity. Today’s air and space travel, navigation, communications, manufacturing, banking and investment, MRI scanners in hospitals or indeed Alexa would not exist without mathematics!

So, to explain what’s at the roots of AI and ML to the gardener the Badger decided on the following answer. ‘It’s all about the mathematics. As mathematics advances, so does the panoply of possible inventions available. There’s nothing magical behind it. It’s just the meeting of mathematical advances, science and available technology opening up the possibility of inventions that can benefit people – just like it has for centuries.’

The Badger tested this with his brother-in-law, a self-employed gardener. His reaction? “Who cares. This is ultimately about screwing more money out of me to line someone else’s pocket. If some robot starts tidying my flower beds and taking my livelihood then it’ll see the teeth of my chainsaw pretty quick.” Expletives have been removed. Not quite the reaction expected! Conclusion? Notwithstanding the interesting point about money, the Badger was right to say ‘No idea’ when his academic friend asked the question!

Driverless cars; now there’s a transformation challenge!

Posted on by The Information Badger in AI & Robotics, Digital Transformation, Driverless transport, IT Project Management, Uncategorized

Richard Holway, a respected UK Tech analyst, wondered recently (TechMarketView, 27th April) if driverless cars for the masses would ever become a reality on UK streets. The Badger wondered the same thing, but from the perspective of an experienced programme deliverer rather than a market analyst.

A short guide to driverless cars from the RAC gives a simple insight to the many relevant issues and questions. It’s things like the legal framework, insurance and liability, safety accreditation, ethics and public acceptance, rather than the technology, that need clear resolution for driverless cars to become a reality on UK streets within the aggressive timescales often quoted by advocates.

Advanced trials on UK roads will start by the end of 2019 in order to meet a government commitment to have self-driving cars on UK roads by 2021. The Badger takes this with a pinch of salt. Why? Because the devil is in the detail and such trials will inevitably expose a plethora of unexpected issues. Excuse the Badger’s cynicism but the politicians also have a track record of finding a way to declare success by redefining what they meant in the first place! It doesn’t seem likely that fully driverless cars will be used by the masses as personal transport for many, many years yet. Experiencing the UK’s Bank Holiday traffic this weekend just emphasised the scale of the societal transformation necessary.

The Badger asked younger family members for their views. They were positive about the technology but had reservations about its robustness, security and safety in real-world circumstances. However, they were dubious that the public would adopt driverless transport with open arms. The youngsters had worries about loss of privacy, a ‘Big Brother’ world, liability for accidents and injury, and the potential for carnage when driverless vehicles mix with conventional traffic at scale. They thought driverless cars were overhyped, but that more tech-centred driver aids were a good thing. No one saw themselves using a driverless car on a public road out of choice for the foreseeable future.

The Badger can’t see the timelines for driverless cars in the UK being met. Why? Because it took years for Debit Cards to be widely used across society and a couple of decades for mobile phones to become an affordable part of every person’s life, so why would driverless cars be different? The transformational challenge is much greater. The societal aspects seem to get less airtime than the technology, so don’t hold your breath that fully driverless cars will happen fast in the UK. Perhaps the Badger’s wrong? Time will tell. In the meantime, the Badger’s side-stepping the driverless revolution by moving from cars to motorbikes for personal transport!

Systems Integration; the downfall of many a plan…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Education, IT Project Management, Systems Integration, Uncategorized

The radio alarm burst into life the other morning. The Badger simply paid no attention and turned over entering that strange dozing state somewhere between asleep and awake. Until, that is, the radio warbled the phrases ‘software’, ‘systems integration’, and ‘new plan’. This triggered a return to full consciousness and instant concentration. The new Crossrail CEO was being interviewed about revised plans to complete one of the largest and most challenging infrastructure programmes in Europe. If you’re unfamiliar with Crossrail then a quick look here, here and here provides context, and you’ll find one of many insights on the delay here .

The Badger listened carefully as the CEO talked about the difficulties regarding the software and systems integration of signalling and train systems. He emphasised that this and the testing of trains running safely through tunnels was at the heart of the revised programme plan. Interestingly, he emphasised a primary focus on ‘Systems Integration’ rather than ‘Contract Management’ going forward. The CEO sounded very knowledgeable, but the Badger couldn’t help feeling a little sad that yet again lessons from past software and IT intensive programmes appear not to have been learned. After all, it’s been known for decades that ‘Systems Integration’ is where the chickens normally come home to roost on major programmes!

Perhaps CityAM’s piece following Crossrail’s March update to the Westminster Public Accounts Committee (PAC) provides an insight to simple reasons underlying Crossrail’s crisis. It sounds like a) politicians were intransigent, b) Crossrail leaders were focused on the politics, contract management and ‘blame games’, c) programme status reporting and assurance mechanisms might have concentrated on the positives, and d) forward-looking risk management and mitigation processes were ineffective. A PAC member apparently said. “It’s incredible, incredible for senior people to sit here and tell me you were not clear this was going to fall over. It was perfectly clear it was going to fall over.” The Badger has uttered similar words many times in his career over the last 35 years! So why don’t lessons get learned, you may well ask? Mainly because of people, egos, political agendas, management and delivery culture, lack of time and an unwillingness to listen. These often conspire to persuade us wrongly that ‘This programme is different and lessons from the past have limited application’.

The radio interview was over within a few minutes and the Badger was reminded of a long- standing nugget of wisdom, namely: ‘System Integration is always where the chickens come home to roost; expect difficulty, plan it well and actively manage and mitigate its risks from the programme’s outset’. The Badger then rolled over and went back to sleep…

The builder and his ‘critical infrastructure’…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Digital devices and the environment, Education, Privacy and Surveillance, Security, Uncategorized

Chatting to a self-employed builder working on a neighbour’s property last week proved interesting. The guy works very hard, but readily admits he’s a slave to his smart phone whenever it rings, buzzes, beeps or its screen flashes. He always responds to these triggers regardless of whether he’s up a ladder, laying bricks or digging a trench. The builder says his smart phone apps are as essential to him as the physical tools of his trade. He laments this but says it’s a necessity if he’s to make his living.

Conversation somehow moved onto online security and privacy. The builder said he’s read about this in his ubiquitous tabloid newspaper, but never pays attention to things like password advice. When asked why not, he simply said ‘because I’m a builder. I just want my day to day life to be as easy as possible’. The builder has used the same password for everything for years! He saw the Badger flinch and frown, and just said ‘With all this AI and driverless cars malarkey, this security gubbins must have been sorted so it’s obviously safe to run my life with one password’. Oh dear!

If the builder’s thinking typifies that of the average person then we should worry about the depth of security and privacy awareness! In 2019, ~55% of British firms reported cyber-attacks (up from 40% a year ago). There have been more cyber-attacks on ‘critical infrastructure’, and Facebook has hoovered up 15 million email address books without permission! The online revolution of recent decades has certainly unlocked Pandora’s box. The builder recognises this but just says: ‘The Genie’s out of the bottle and can’t be put back in, so I’ll just carry on as-is with what works for me’. Oh dear!

The Badger realised two things from the conversation. First, there’s lots more to do to counter security and privacy ambivalence and educate people on the subject. Second, the smart phone in your hand is your ‘critical infrastructure’ and you must treat it as such. To prove the point, try not using it for a few days, like Badger did this last week. Yes, it’s difficult and strange at first, but you adapt surprisingly easily to overcome inconveniences.

Today the Badger and the builder chatted again. The builder has a new phone, a basic one providing just voice and SMS. Why? Because he lost his old one. He thinks he dropped it in a trench and poured concrete over it. He doesn’t miss it because he’s realised all he really needs from his ‘critical infrastructure’ is voice and SMS. Unfortunately, this has made him even more ambivalent about online security, privacy and passwords. Some people will never learn…

Meetings; beware of the HIPPO and the Abilene Paradox!

Posted on by The Information Badger in Education, IT Project Management, Uncategorized

The Badger’s niece has recently been rewarded for her hard work with a promotion. She’s very pleased, but it was obvious over a recent coffee that her job satisfaction is reducing. Why? Perhaps just because she’s in a male dominated organisation? No. It’s because she’s now operating at a level in her organisation where the volume of meetings and the seniority of their attendees has dramatically risen and encroached on her time for ‘real productive work’. She’s adjusting, but feeling a little intimidated and frustrated. She asked the Badger what he’d learned about meetings during his career. The Badger spluttered in his coffee, and then communicated the following.

First, some meetings – face to face, conference calls etc – are a necessity in any organisation. Most, however, have too many attendees and hangers-on, are poorly managed, and are rituals or ego massages rather than truly useful events. Before attending, always ask yourself two questions; ‘Is this meeting absolutely necessary?’ and ‘Is it of real benefit to me to attend?’. If the answer’s No, don’t attend.

Second, decisions taken in or after more than 75% of meetings will be in line with the HIPPO – the HIghest Paid Persons Opinion! The reason has its roots in psychology, and even the BBC has written about the HIPPO! So, in meetings or conference calls, do two things…know who the HIPPO is, and don’t be frightened to challenge the HIPPO with your own opinion. The best senior people listen and welcome input from others. They know they don’t have a monopoly in being right.

Third, learn about the Abilene Paradox (e.g. see here and here) whereby a group makes a collective decision that’s contrary to the thoughts and feelings of each person in that group. It happens because humans have a natural aversion to going against the perceived feelings of a group. Individuals don’t, therefore, speak up for fear of rocking the boat. If no one speaks up the group decision can be at odds with the view and desire of every individual in the group. Over the years the Badger’s seen this happen with ‘Go-Live’ decision meetings, often with disastrous results! So, always say what you think in meetings; don’t be intimidated by the presence of others more senior than yourself – it’s okay to go against the herd.

The Badger’s niece perked up and bought a second round of coffees! We chatted some more about the people behaviour aspects of meetings. She eventually departed with a big grin, saying she intended to ‘shake up’ the next meeting she was in. Great stuff! The Badger just hopes his niece’s organisation is ready for the whirlwind that’s been unleashed…

It’s people that innovate…

Posted on by The Information Badger in Education, Innovation, Uncategorized

Tim Harper, a serial nanotechnology entrepreneur, recently wrote a great article on ‘Seven rules for nanotech innovation’ for Physics World, an Institute of Physics publication. Sadly, you can’t read it online unless you’re a member. What struck the Badger from reading the article was two things; first, just how closely Tim’s points aligned with the Badger’s experience in IT services, and second that innovation comes from people with belief, determination and resilience in the face of the indifference of others. Corporations per se don’t innovate, but the individuals within them do!

Of course, it’s corporations that benefit from the ideas of their employees, especially when there’s an internal culture that truly encourages creativity and innovation. Often, however, that internal culture is absent, and talented, hard-working employees become frustrated or apathetic about progressing their ideas, and some leave to take their chances as an entrepreneur in the big wide world.

Corporations must continuously innovate in the digital world (e.g. see this from McKinsey) and most in IT services say the right things, have innovation champions, have extensive internal processes to capture and evaluate ideas, and have budget to nurture ideas with potential. Processes and controls are a necessity for any commercial enterprise, but these processes are too often bureaucratic, cumbersome, and slow, which discourages busy people from engaging with them. The Badger’s seen few true innovations come to fruition through such machinery; most ideas seem to stall in the process with people wondering why they bothered!

So, what do you do if your ideas are getting nowhere? Be hard on yourself and re-evaluate your idea ruthlessly and objectively. We can all be blinkered about our ideas, so remember it’s ‘the market’ that comes first not the science or technology. Will your idea really have commercial usefulness and, if so, in what market? Who’ll use it, pay for it and why? If you’re unclear on this then it may be why you’re encountering indifference and getting nowhere.

If, however, you’ve clear answers, then you may just be mired in slow, dogmatic corporate bureaucracy which is at odds with a truly creative and innovation-centred culture. If your passion for your idea is overwhelming and your frustration high then you may be at a career crossroads. Do you leave for a dynamic, smaller company hungry for new ideas to fuel growth, or do you plunge into the uncertain world of becoming an entrepreneur? Only you can make such judgements. If you do, then do so knowing that  it’s people that innovate, most innovation originates in smaller companies or start-ups, and that most of these are eventually bought by bigger companies! Your job satisfaction could soar, and you could make your fortune far sooner than with a corporate. One final point. Be confident in yourself and never stifle your creativity. After all, your ideas are just as valid as anyone else’s…