AI, spooks, and red poppies…

The UK weather at this time of year is often variable, and this year is no exception. Rain last night decimated Halloween’s ‘trick-or-treating’ and sightings of ghostly spirits, at least in the Badger’s locality. However, those at this week’s global AI Safety Summit at Bletchley Park will no doubt have some fun ‘spotting the spook’ because there’ll inevitably be ‘spooks’ from shadowy organisations in their midst! The summit brings together governments, leading AI companies, and many others to consider the risks associated with rapidly advancing AI technologies, and how these can be mitigated via international coordination and regulation.

Given that it’s barely a year since ChatGPT was launched, the fact that this summit is taking place is encouraging. But will something tangible emerge from it? The Badger’s quietly hopeful, even though governments and regulators have historically been glacial and have only acted once a technology is already well-established. The UK government, for example, has taken almost 20 years to establish an online safety law to limit the harms caused by social media. AI pioneers have themselves voiced concern about the threats, and it will be a catastrophe if it takes another 20 years to limit the potential harms from this field of  technology!

With Halloween a damp squib, the Badger’s thoughts about the AI Safety Summit roamed fancifully influenced by November’s Guy Fawkes Night and Remembrance Sunday which are just days away. ‘Spooks’ from the shadowy organisations providing intelligence to governments will certainly push for more sophisticated AI capabilities in their operational kitbag to ensure, for example, that the chance of a repeat of Guy Fawkes’ 1605 attempt to blow up Parliament is infinitesimally small! Militaries will also want to develop and use ever more advanced AI capabilities to enhance their physical, informational, and cyber operational defensive and offensive capabilities. Inevitably, lessons learned from current conflicts will fuel further military AI development, but whatever any future with AI looks like, the Badger thinks that red poppies and  Remembrance Sunday will remain an annual constant.

The Badger’s grandfathers, and his father and father-in-law, served in the British Army in the two World Wars of the 20th Century. They rarely spoke about their experiences, but they were proud to have fought for the freedoms and way of life we take for granted today. Now all passed away, what would they think about the threat that AI poses to our future? Just two things; that an identified threat should always be dealt with sooner rather than later, and that we must never allow Remembrance Sunday to wither on the vine of time because it’s a reminder to everyone that it’s man who makes sacrifices to protect freedoms, not machines.

‘They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old:

Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn.

At the going down of the sun and in the morning

We will remember them.’

What development has had the most detrimental impact on society in the last 20 years?

The Badger was asked the question ‘What development has had the most detrimental impact on society in the last 20 years?’ during a conversation with a youngster who’s just started the final year of their university degree course. The conversation was centred on the Badger’s experience in the IT industry and was primarily focused on helping the youngster not only look  beyond completing their degree, but also decide whether to stay at university for a higher degree or move into industry to bolster their immediate income. As the Badger described some of the dynamic technological changes encountered throughout his own career, the youngster paused for a moment, pursed their lips, frowned, and then unexpectedly asked this question.

The Badger was taken aback. After what seemed like a prolonged and embarrassing silence, but was really just a few seconds, the Badger took the easy option and answered with a bland ‘I don’t know. Different generations will probably have different views.’ The youngster smiled and chided him for being cleverly uncontentious! They then answered  their own question, and their answer took the Badger completely by surprise. Why? Because he did not expect what he heard from a Generation Z person who is completely digital-native with no experience of life without the internet, personal computers, social media, or mobile phones.

‘Social media is the development that has had the most detrimental impact’, they proclaimed. They contended that social media has developed such that its content is the  embodiment of 7 R’s – rage, rumour, rackets, rubbish, robbers, retail, and revenue – which is growing to be ever more corrosive to the fabric of society. They voiced their distrust of the likes of Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and X (formerly Twitter), and expressed  concern that users of such platforms are naïve about their impact on personal privacy and social stability. Their final assertion was that social media has had the most detrimental impact on the world in the last 20 years because it has undermined law and order, respect for others, encroached on privacy, and enabled the immediacy of widespread fraud and misinformation. The Badger, who was a little surprised at hearing this from a digital native of Generation Z, quickly refocused the conversation on the youngster’s post-graduate aspirations!

Whether you share the youngster’s view or not, history suggests that some developments which change society are lauded during their time, but ultimately prove to be devastating in the long run. For example, fossil-fuels revolutionised life in the 20th Century, but they have had a damaging impact on the sustainability of life on our planet and are now shunned. The Badger’s undecided whether social media, a once exciting early 21st Century development, falls into this category, but if you want some fun at a multi-generational gathering of friends or family then ask the youngster’s question. The result is almost guaranteed not to be what you expect…

Children’s toys and ‘invisible’ e-waste…

One day last week, the Badger arrived early to collect his grandson from nursery school. As he waited, he  couldn’t help a wry smile as the young tots resisted the nursery leader’s attempts to get them to tidy the plethora of toys away. One little girl came up to the Badger with a battered Fisher-Price musical guitar and insisted on showing him how to extract noise from it. The noises from the guitar demonstrated that it was on its last legs! One of the nursery helpers then ushered the little girl away, and as she did so she told the child that the toy was broken and needed to be ’thrown away’. Did they really mean ‘thrown away’, or did they mean ‘recycled’? It was pretty clear that they meant the former.

In due course, the Badger’s grandson, who had been playing with a musical toy in the form of a mobile phone, was returned home to his parents. Afterwards, the Badger found himself cogitating on how different today’s pre-school toys are from those of his generation. No toys for pre-school kids in his day required a battery to function! Today,  however, toys requiring a battery and containing microchips are commonplace. The Badger found himself  muttering a phrase that everyone uses at some stage when they get older, namely ‘those were the days’. His thoughts moved on to the nursery helper’s ’thrown away’ remark. Did they really mean ‘thrown away’ rather than ‘recycled’? Well, since toys top the list of  ‘invisible’ e-waste finding its way into landfill, then, yes, they probably did.  

Many things young children play with today contain recyclable electrical or electronic material that goes unnoticed. The amount of such material in an individual toy may be tiny, but every little bit matters if we truly want a sustainable future. Unfortunately, however, awareness that a child’s toy should be sent to recycling at the end of its useful life isn’t as high as it should be. That’s why children’s toys contribute to the growing so-called ‘invisible’ e-waste in the world’s land fill sites. The Badger thus feels it’s incumbent on us adults to be more knowledgeable and make better decisions when it comes to disposing of broken children’s toys.

The Badger also suspects, perhaps wrongly, that the WEEE’s recent International E-waste Day on the 14th October 2023 passed most of us by. It’s purpose was to shed light on the overall scale of  ‘invisible’ e-waste, see here.  Our awareness of ‘invisible’ e-waste must be improved, and, as the WEEE Forum puts it, we must all be more conscious that we can recycle anything that has a plug, uses a battery or microchip, or has a cable. So, if you hear someone telling a child that a toy should be ‘thrown away’ then tell them to recycle it, and wish them good luck in getting it out of the child’s hands without a tantrum to do so…

EVs, Fire, and the demise of the garage…

What do you use your garage at home for, that is if you have one? According to the UK’s RAC Foundation, it’s not housing your car! In 2002, 22% of private cars in England were housed overnight in a garage. Most, 50%, were parked outside overnight on your driveway, and the rest were parked on the street. In 2022, the equivalent numbers were 10% and 62%, respectively. It’s pretty clear, therefore, that the relationship between your garage and your car has become much more tenuous over the last 20 years. Rather than a place to house a car, today’s garage has become a general storage space for things like DIY tools and materials, garden equipment, pedal bicycles, and diverse items of unused home paraphernalia. That is, of course, if it hasn’t already been converted into extra living space, a home office, or a home gym or recreation area.

Garages associated with residential property emerged in the early days of motoring. Their popularity grew through the mid-20th century as cars became more affordable. They were high on a home-buyer’s wish-list because, at least until the 1970s, they protected the family car from the weather and rust, and they made it easier to start the engine in cold weather. Since the 1970s, and over the last two decades in particular, garages have become a victim of advances in automotive technology. Today’s cars, for example, are made of corrosion resistant materials and are packed with technology that means difficulty starting in cold weather is rare. They’re also significantly larger than their earlier counterparts due to the introduction of progressive stringent safety regulations. BMWs Mini Cooper, for example, is ~61% larger than the original from the 1960s. Most of today’s popular petrol, diesel, or electric cars, therefore, are simply too big for the garages of the UK’s residential housing stock.

Interestingly, with a future dominated by battery powered EVs, this might actually be a good thing! How so? Well, while EV manufacturers have put lots of effort into ensuring that charging your car in your garage using a properly installed charging point is safe, the fact is that if a fire starts due to battery damage or defective charging then the fire brigade are unlikely to be able to put it out. If this happens in your garage, then you can say good-bye to your car, the garage, and potentially your home. However, the risk of this happening is low, of course, because it seems from the RAC data noted above that few EVs will, in practice, be housed or charged inside a residential garage.

Given that ‘progress’ and battery EVs have made the link between our garage and our car increasingly tenuous, perhaps the time has come to start building all new homes without a garage? Now there’s a meaty thought to grapple with…

Expect the unexpected; when the unexpected happens, respond rather than react…

The very first Project Management training course the Badger attended early in his IT industry career seemed of questionable merit. It was a residential course for Project Managers drawn from across all the business sectors in which his company  operated. Attendees arrived on a Sunday afternoon and ultimately departed mid-afternoon on the following Wednesday. At the time, it was common for people to be actively performing a Project Manager role before attending any associated training course, and so everyone on the course was already actively managing software and systems projects under a variety of contractual arrangements.

Most of the course sessions focused on the process and practice of managing a delivery/development lifecycle, risk, finances, and the basics of contracts and change control.  The format was rather dry but provided some useful reminders. At the end of the course, however, most attendees questioned whether being away from their projects had been a useful use of their time. There were, however, two overwhelmingly positive points of feedback, namely a) the usefulness of meeting peers and sharing experiences, and b) the closing, hour-long, Q&A session during which a senior business leader answered wide ranging questions from attendees.

Whilst the Badger came away rather ambivalent about this course, it had provided a useful reminder that Project Management is as much about people, as it is about structure, lifecycles, processes and practices. In fact, the primary thing that has stayed with the Badger from the course ever since are the wise words of the senior business leader in the closing Q&A session. When asked to give one piece of advice that everyone present should take on board, they said ‘Expect the unexpected, and when the unexpected happens, respond rather than react’. They explained that no one can avoid the unexpected, that some people are better at dealing with it than others, and that some people react emotionally, feel anger, panic and fear, become agitated, and initiate  knee-jerk moves to action that compound matters and alienate others.  Others respond rather than react. They stay calm, focus on the facts and what they can control, assess the options before progressing a plan of action, and unify and encourage those around them.  The business leader told the audience to remember to respond rather than react.

Throughout his career, the Badger encountered many leaders and managers who had to deal with the completely unexpected. Many reacted rather than responded ! This was a constant reminder that everyone is different, and that being a leader or manager doesn’t provide immunity to the core traits of your personality. Perhaps that first Project Management course was of more value than seemed at the time, because it sowed the seed of awareness that to be a truly successful leader or manager, then you must learn how to respond rather than react to the unexpected…

Gas boiler, heat pump…net-zero fatigue…

A smartphone ping announced the arrival of an email from the Badger’s energy provider. It contained a marketing pitch regarding the replacement of home gas boilers with air-source heat pumps. The Badger had already seen a similar pitch on social media, and read the many comments left by others. The email was deleted because, like those commenting on social media, he will not be replacing his home’s reliable gas boiler until the end of its serviceable life, which is still many years away.

Does that mean the Badger doesn’t care about achieving net-zero and green issues? It certainly does not. Like most with children and grandchildren, he’s very conscious of the importance of such issues. He’s simply being realistic and objective, all be it that the incessant net-zero evangelism from UK politicians, activists, and experts, and the actions of Extinction Rebellion and Just Stop Oil, means that some personal ‘net-zero fatigue’ has set in! This fatigue seems to be becoming more widespread in the general public, ostensibly because the implementation of net-zero policies has reached the point where people are starting to realise the cost to them and the impact on their lives. It appears that grumbling and push back is building, and that most people will not be replacing their gas boiler for a heat pump in the foreseeable future!

Ditching a gas boiler for a heat pump is simply not an option for many, which is hardly surprising when the UK has the oldest housing stock in Europe, with ~80% built before 1990, and 20% built before 1919. Converting this housing for heat pumps is simply unrealistic for most who live in it, especially when the raw installation cost not only surpasses the annual income from the maximum UK State Pension, but also amounts to about a third of the annual income of those earning the average UK wage. It’s not realistic to believe that people will prioritise net-zero above immediate family needs and channel a significant portion of their income to invest in a heat pump, especially when its running costs are not dissimilar to that of a gas boiler.

Although our need to achieve net-zero is clear, a transition from oil and gas needs to be realistic and affordable, targets set by politicians are never met (cf. UK Smart Meters),  and there will be alternatives to heat pumps in the coming years. The Badger’s thus not installing a heat pump any time soon just to help net-zero. It’s not a suitable or economically viable option for his home. If this is a sign that the Badger’s suffering from ‘net-zero fatigue’, is there a cure? Yes, a social and political shift away from evangelistic net-zero idealism to common-sense, pragmatism, and transition realism. But with a UK General Election due in the next year, the chance of any cure seems remote…

Under pressure; wellbeing in the workplace…

Watching Freddie Mercury belting out ‘Pressure, pushing down on me, pushing down on you…under pressure’ at a Queen concert decades ago was truly memorable. The song, ‘Under Pressure’, is on a favourite Badger playlist and so it often gets played. It’s not surprising, therefore, that these words came to mind when he was recently asked to summarise the human aspects of delivery in the IT industry in just two words! His chosen words were ‘pressure’ and ‘stress’. Those working in IT delivery will know that ‘pressure’ is relentless, that it causes persistent ‘stress’ for the individual, and that being able to cope with the ‘stress’ is crucial to getting the job done on time and preserving one’s wellbeing.

Pressure features in every workplace, and the level of stress it inflicts on people depends on many factors, including, for example, disparities between an organisation’s stated values and the reality of its work culture, the quality and experience of its leaders and managers, and whether there’s enough trained people for the work itself. Early in his delivery career, the Badger learned that when people work in an environment that takes their wellbeing seriously then success happens. Pressure is, of course, a fact of life, and so some stress is inevitable. However, when stressed people feel supported and valued then productivity rises, absence due to sickness reduces, and resignations reduce too. Good leaders and managers, therefore, will always recognise when someone is struggling with stress and take proactive steps to provide the relevant support.

Over the years, the Badger’s seen many capable people take absence due to work-related stress. All of them were good people who found themselves in overwhelming situations with little support from their bosses. They all worried about carrying the stigma of ‘mental health, but all recovered and continued their careers. In recent times, organisations have rightly improved their human resource policies and frameworks to include more focus on employee wellbeing, because this benefits the employer and employees alike. Trained mental health first aiders and confidential Employee Assistance helplines in the workplace, for example, have become commonplace because it’s recognised that wellbeing helps productivity and helps keep sickness absence and voluntary staff turnover at sensible levels.

But here’s the thing. Organisations often have mechanisms that focus on employee wellbeing, but few actually report tangible data about wellbeing in their annual reports. Surely, this must change. Today mental health has become a key reason for a) sickness absence at work, b) staff resignations, and c) the majority of calls to Employee Assistance helplines. Such metrics can be an indicator of some toxicity in an organisation’s culture regardless of its wellbeing policies. They highlight a potential risk to the organisation’s activities, and on that basis the need for factual reporting in annual reports around mental health and wellbeing across the organisation seems a no-brainer…at least to an outsider…

To buy a battery-powered EV now…or not…

The future of that symbol of personal freedom and independence, our car, involves electric propulsion. The push to move us from Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles to battery-powered electric ones (EVs) is well underway. Governments have set targets for the transition, car makers are replacing ICE models with battery powered ones, and there’s a rush to build the ‘gigafactories’ crucial to the EV battery supply chain.

Battery-powered EVs have been on the Badger’s mind recently because the total mileage on his trusty, elderly, diesel SUV has reached the point where it’s inevitable that maintenance and repair costs will soon surpass the vehicle’s inherent value. Sadly, it’s time for a change, so is now the time to change to a battery-powered EV? To help answer this question, the Badger has explored the plethora of information, news, analysis, and opinion relevant to moving to a battery-powered EV at this time. The macro points, summarised below, that he’s taken from this research have influenced the answer to this question.

From a lifecycle perspective, a battery-powered EV is only greener that an ICE counterpart if the electricity used to charge batteries comes from renewables. EVs are expensive to buy, heavy, and minor collisions that damage the battery are expensive to repair. Insurance premiums are higher, and battery fires can be extremely hazardous.  Battery technology continues to advance, and so does fuel cell and synthetic fuel technology. Real-life EV range can vary substantially with seasonal driving conditions and the use of creature comforts (like air conditioning, for example). Journeys in an EV need forward planning to cater for charging which can be a time-consuming chore on long journeys. The national EV charging infrastructure is still developing.

Just like oil, supply of the key materials needed for batteries is not immune to the vagaries of international politics and crises. It’s also inevitable that the UK government will raise taxes on using EVs in order to compensate for the loss of fuel tax revenues on petrol and diesel. Government timescale targets also have a habit of eventually being watered down. However, the biggest influence on answering the question came from an article highlighting the transitional similarities with that of the move from horse and cart to the motor car over a century ago, and an item that reminds us that transitions will follow the ‘S’ curve.

The Badger’s decided that now is not the right time for him to change to a battery powered EV! Taking everything into account, a newer ICE vehicle is the most economical, climate friendly, and sensible option. Does that make the Badger a luddite or climate change denier? No, just clear-eyed and objective. After all, a societal move to battery powered EVs is a huge transformation. Unforeseen circumstances and unexpected downsides will materialise just like they do on all transformation programmes with serious technology at their heart. Waiting is the prudent option…  

‘Children are the world’s most valuable resource and its best hope for the future’

Some days you see something that tugs at your heart strings and makes you sad. One such day recently was when the Badger walked the leafy lanes where he played as a child.  Two vans and three burly men with chain saws were cutting down two magnificent horse-chestnut trees  – trees that the Badger and his childhood friends used to not only play beneath, but also climb to find the best conkers! The trees are still healthy, but they are being felled to make way for a new housing development. The sadness at seeing one of his favourite childhood haunts being dismembered was real.  It was a reminder that change is inevitable, that progress isn’t always for the good, and that the Badger’s childhood was very different to that of most children today.

Since the time the young Badger climbed these conker trees, much of the world has become healthier, better educated, and wealthier. The internet, computing, communication, and social media revolution has changed both social norms and the nature of childhood. As children, the Badger’s generation routinely climbed trees without adult supervision, ropes, or protective equipment, rode bicycles without wearing a helmet, and interacted with every type of creature in nature on an almost daily basis. We took the scrapes, bumps, and bruises that came with this freedom in our stride.  Our freedom was real. We were naturally innovative and imaginative when playing games with playmates, and we problem-solved and learned from each other without thinking about it.   

Childhood today is more cosseted, more organised, more risk averse when it comes to unsupervised outdoor play, and it is shaped and heavily influenced by modern tech and social media. The Badger thinks childhood is actually more dangerous today! Why? Well, whereas there was no online world when the Badger was a child, today it is a major aspect of a child’s life, as an OFCOM report illustrates.  This exposes them to cyberspace threats that simply didn’t exist when the Badger climbed conker trees and the tech world that we know today was science fiction.  Accordingly, the Badger believes the Online Safety Bill , currently in its final stages in the UK Parliament, is a good thing and long overdue.

The values of our country are fundamentally family values, ones which protect children and the vulnerable from those that would do them harm. These were the values when the Badger was a child, and it should still be that way in today’s online world. Our values and our way of life are also determined by us, and not by the huge digital tech corporations that dominate today’s world. John F. Kennedy said, ‘ Children are the world’s most valuable resource and its best hope for the future’. The UK’s Online Safety Bill is thus doing a good thing; it’s protecting the world’s most valuable resource…

India, a technological force to be reckoned with…

Legend has it that Buzz Aldrin played a cassette of Frank Sinatra’s ‘Fly me to the moon’ when the Apollo 11 lander touched down on the Moon in 1969. If that’s true, then it was the first song ever played on the lunar surface.  This trivia came to mind when India’s  unmanned Chandrayaan-3 mission recently landed at the Moon’s South Pole, just days after Russia’s Luna-25 failed attempting the same feat. News of the Indian landing made the Badger wonder if the lander had played Bollywood music on touch down! Whether it did or not is, of course, immaterial. What is material is that India has cemented its position as a force to be reckoned with in space technology, and that its achievement will reverberate for decades to come.  

The Badger first visited India in the late 1990s when offshoring software development and IT services was rapidly accelerating. This first visit, as a member of a UK team performing due diligence on a small Bangalore company being strategically purchased to grow into a major offshore delivery centre, changed and expanded the Badger’s mindset. On the flight to India, the Badger had been sceptical that he would observe capabilities similar to the norm in the UK, Europe, or North America. On the return flight, that scepticism had reduced significantly because he’d witnessed impressive technical prowess from people who were young, well educated, motivated, hungry to learn, hungry to better themselves and their families, and hungry for success for their team and country.  

During the trip, the Badger visited a lush, modern, technology campus housing mainly call centres for some large UK financial services companies. It was buzzing, well organised, and the people were articulate and passionate about their work.  Most call handlers were university graduates. They were paid a good salary by India standards, but a fraction of what was paid in the UK, Europe or North America. The campus visit, and days spent with the technical designers and programmers at the company being purchased, opened the Badger’s mind. India’s software and IT talent could not be ignored, and it was good value for money.  On the flight home, the Badger knew that capitalising on that talent by offshoring to India was essential, and that making it happen across an established UK IT business would be a challenge.  

Much has happened in the intervening years. Today, Indian companies like TCS and Infosys are ranked in the Top 10 global IT companies (none of which are headquartered in the UK). All the Top 10 have sizeable capabilities based in India. The Chandrayaan-3 moon landing thus further illustrates the depth and diversity of India’s technological prowess. India will undoubtedly be a technological force to be reckoned with for decades to come. Can the same be said for the UK? Now that’s an interesting question…