Frustration caused by the plague of delivery vans…

Life’s full of ups and downs, and some weeks are better than others! For the Badger, Easter week was full of frustrations, all ostensibly caused by society’s addiction to online shopping with home delivery. Like many, the Badger used his car to visit family, friends, and for errands over the Easter period. Every journey was delayed at some point by the stop, start, and illegal parking activities of vehicles that were part of the ever-growing plague of multi-drop delivery vans on UK streets.

Here’s one example that caused frustration. The Badger drove an elderly neighbour to their appointment at the local health centre, a journey which normally takes ~7 minutes with a route that entails driving through the town’s High Street. Well before reaching this busy street, traffic had slowed to a snail’s pace. This was because a well-known company’s multi-drop delivery van had parked on double-yellow (no-waiting) lines in the middle of the High Street. The driver had left the van to deliver a collection of packages to nearby residences. The illegally parked van caused havoc as car drivers tried to navigate around it against the constant flow of traffic coming in the opposite direction. Just as the Badger reached the High Street, the van driver returned, collected another armful of packages, and walked off with them in a different direction ignoring the obvious disruption their van was causing.

Just before it was the Badger’s turn to navigate past the van, the driver returned, drove off, and stopped again on double-yellow lines 50 metres further along the street. This made the disruption worse because another multi-drop delivery van had parked close by on the opposite side of the road creating a chicane for traffic in both directions. As a result of all this, the 7-minute drive to the Health Centre took nearly 25 minutes, making the Badger’s neighbour slightly late for their appointment. This, and similar experiences on other journeys over the Easter period, triggered some musing.

Online shopping with home delivery has revolutionised convenience, but one consequence is the plague of vans on our roads and the tendency of their drivers to ignore the rules of the road due to tight schedules, high delivery volumes, and the need for frequent stops. Since these van drivers seem to be immune to the rules of the roads, the Badger thinks there’s a need for an enforcement solution. If today’s digital tech can tell you when your online purchase will arrive at your door, then it’s clearly possible to use drone, satellite, and information technologies to a) detect in real-time when multi-drop van drivers park illegally on double yellow lines and b) automatically fine them and their employer for the misdemeanour. It currently seems that no amount of ‘company policy’ or ‘driver training’ makes a difference, but hitting them in their pockets probably will…

Goodbye trusty diesel car, hello petrol-hybrid…

The Badger’s trusty diesel car is no more; it’s been replaced. It’s been a good servant over the last 14 years, but with more than 150,000 miles on the clock it had been in the end part of the standard reliability bathtub curve for some time.  The time had come for head to rule heart, and so a couple of months ago the Badger decided it was time for a change. That, of course, meant deciding on what type of newer vehicle the replacement should be.

The Badger approached the process systematically, and with disciplined objectivity rather than emotion as per instincts honed by decades in the IT industry. He set out his primary requirements and did some online research to establish a shortlist of potential vehicles. His primary requirements were similar to those when he purchased his trusty diesel 14 years ago, even though the automotive, social, political, technology, and economic landscapes have changed considerably since. The primary requirements were nothing fancy and likely typical of those of most private buyers. They revolved around price, running costs (including road tax and insurance), suitability for current and future family needs, quality and reliability. Brand, type of fuel, and digital gadgetry were secondary considerations.

One vehicle stood out during test drives of those on the Badger’s shortlist by meeting all his requirements. A good deal was done, Gary Numan’s Cars was the first song on the radio when taking delivery, and the Badger’s been driving an extremely low mileage, less than two-year-old petrol-hybrid for over six weeks now.  It’s essentially a well-engineered iPad-with-wheels, brimming with sensors and driver aids. It’s a revelation compared to his trusty diesel, and driving it is a constant reminder of how digital technology dominates our lives and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

The whole process from valuing the old car, researching models that met requirements, arranging test drives, agreeing a purchase and making payment, and obtaining road tax and car insurance, involved online services which have been efficient, convenient, and secure. The hybrid technology and comprehensive digital driving aids, entertainment, navigation, and safety features make his replacement car a great and flexible package. A petrol-hybrid rather than a pure battery electric car was the right modern choice for the Badger. It represents the best of  both worlds and eliminates range anxiety and the need to plan long journeys around charging points. It’s a balanced and sensible compromise that comes with economic and environment benefits while avoiding the limitations and inconveniences of pure battery electric vehicles. While electric propulsion may be the future, pure battery electric vehicles will be usurped by fuel cells in the coming years. As for completely driverless cars, well, they are a long way off on UK roads, not because of technology limitations, but because people are people and they like to be in control when they are behind the wheel!

EVs, Fire, and the demise of the garage…

What do you use your garage at home for, that is if you have one? According to the UK’s RAC Foundation, it’s not housing your car! In 2002, 22% of private cars in England were housed overnight in a garage. Most, 50%, were parked outside overnight on your driveway, and the rest were parked on the street. In 2022, the equivalent numbers were 10% and 62%, respectively. It’s pretty clear, therefore, that the relationship between your garage and your car has become much more tenuous over the last 20 years. Rather than a place to house a car, today’s garage has become a general storage space for things like DIY tools and materials, garden equipment, pedal bicycles, and diverse items of unused home paraphernalia. That is, of course, if it hasn’t already been converted into extra living space, a home office, or a home gym or recreation area.

Garages associated with residential property emerged in the early days of motoring. Their popularity grew through the mid-20th century as cars became more affordable. They were high on a home-buyer’s wish-list because, at least until the 1970s, they protected the family car from the weather and rust, and they made it easier to start the engine in cold weather. Since the 1970s, and over the last two decades in particular, garages have become a victim of advances in automotive technology. Today’s cars, for example, are made of corrosion resistant materials and are packed with technology that means difficulty starting in cold weather is rare. They’re also significantly larger than their earlier counterparts due to the introduction of progressive stringent safety regulations. BMWs Mini Cooper, for example, is ~61% larger than the original from the 1960s. Most of today’s popular petrol, diesel, or electric cars, therefore, are simply too big for the garages of the UK’s residential housing stock.

Interestingly, with a future dominated by battery powered EVs, this might actually be a good thing! How so? Well, while EV manufacturers have put lots of effort into ensuring that charging your car in your garage using a properly installed charging point is safe, the fact is that if a fire starts due to battery damage or defective charging then the fire brigade are unlikely to be able to put it out. If this happens in your garage, then you can say good-bye to your car, the garage, and potentially your home. However, the risk of this happening is low, of course, because it seems from the RAC data noted above that few EVs will, in practice, be housed or charged inside a residential garage.

Given that ‘progress’ and battery EVs have made the link between our garage and our car increasingly tenuous, perhaps the time has come to start building all new homes without a garage? Now there’s a meaty thought to grapple with…

The UK 2030 ban on new petrol/diesel cars, and a battery powered EV…

The car park at Polesden Lacey was busy. Good weather and the school holidays had brought out young and old alike to visit the extensive grounds, gardens, and historic house. Finding a space in the car park looked to be a challenge, but a car backed out and the Badger was quickly able to manoevure his trusty diesel SUV into the vacated area between tall hedges and a Volkswagen ID3 EV. On disembarking for the short walk to the estate’s entrance, the sight of the Badger’s aged, diesel vehicle next to an EV typifying the future of motoring seemed rather incongruous, especially as he’d listened to a programme on EVs and the UK 2030 ban on new petrol/diesel cars during the drive to Polesden.

The sun is setting on fossil-fuelled engines as the dominant means of propulsion for personal motoring, but are battery powered EVs the future? The Badger thinks it’s healthy to maintain some scepticism, to avoid the herd mentality, and to stay objective in the face of evangelism, campaigning, and politicking when it comes to answering such a question. The radio programme had sown the seeds for the Badger to cogitate on the topic, but the treasures of Polesden Lacey’s house and gardens meant these seeds didn’t burst into life until stopping for a picnic lunch on a bench nestled under the house’s South Lawn colonnade.

The UK 2030 ban on new petrol/diesel cars is just six years away, and the motor industry has been ramping up battery powered EV production and discontinuing petrol/diesel models for some time. After considering things holistically, the Badger thinks the 2030 ban will be relaxed. Why? Well, foremost because this is a massive transformation, few of which ever meet their targets. The number of EVs registered in the UK is rising, but they remain economically out of reach for those of modest means. The public charging infrastructure is problematic, the economic case for owning an EV isn’t as attractive as it was, and the Lithium required for EV batteries requires global production to rise threefold by 2025 and six-fold by 2030. Factors like the forced extension of London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone, range anxiety, vehicle weight, battery life, and battery fires (e.g. see here, here, and here) are also making people think harder before moving to a battery-powered EV.    

A lot can change in six years, but the Badger believes the 2030 ban on new petrol/diesel car will be relaxed. Of all the cars in the Polesden car park, just a handful were EVs. Progress in their adoption is slow. Furthermore, on returning to his car for the journey home, the owner of the VW ID3 EV parked next to him was on the phone to a recovery company. Are battery powered EVs the future? The prudent answer is…perhaps…

Smart Motorways: an incident cements an opinion

Regular travellers between Junctions 10 and 16 on the M25, London’s orbital motorway, know that this road section is always horrendously busy. This stretch is the ‘controlled’ kind of ‘Smart’ motorway with a permanent hard shoulder and variable speed limits on gantries across the lanes. The speed limits are often irrelevant because this stretch of road commonly resembles a four-lane car park. It was while stationary in the second lane of this section recently that the Badger’s opinion about other types of Smart motorway became unshakeable. These other types are ‘dynamic’, where the hard shoulder is opened for vehicles at peak times, and ‘all-lane running’ where there is no hard shoulder. What caused this firming of opinion? Simply being involved in a minor collision which, as this crash map shows, is a frequent occurrence on this stretch of motorway.

As four lanes of traffic crept forward after being stationary for a few minutes, the Badger moved forward a short distance in the second lane coming to a halt when the traffic stopped again. There was a loud bang, the vehicle shuddered and lurched forward, and the Badger’s passenger uttered some choice words. The 1 series BMW behind had driven into the back of the car. The Badger indicated to pull over onto the hard shoulder and the BMW followed, a daunting manoevure given that a 40-tonne lorry behind the BMW obscured the moving traffic in the first lane.

On the hard shoulder, the damage was inspected, details were exchanged, and both drivers expressed some relief at being off the main carriageway. Damage was restricted to paint scuffs to the Badger’s rear bumper, and the radiator grill and a headlight glass on the BMW. The BMW driver said that as the traffic moved off, they had been momentarily distracted by a flash in their rear-view mirror and had not seen the Badger’s vehicle stop until it was too late. As we chatted, traffic on the carriageways picked up speed  and we both felt vulnerable as large lorries thundered by.

Afterwards, the Badger was thankful that this wasn’t a ‘dynamic’ or ‘all-lane running’ motorway because the experience would have been much worse. This M25 stretch was to be upgraded to ‘all lane running’ but the upgrade has been paused, at least for the short term.  The Badger’s minor incident cemented a feeling that UK motorways without hard shoulders do nothing to minimise the anxiety or enhance the safety of those involved in traffic incidents. Ever more ‘Smart’ traffic systems to feed the altar of efficient vehicle flow at the expense of personal safety does not feel right. Indeed, if the pause to upgrading this section of the M25 to ‘all lane running’ is ultimately lifted then it will be a travesty for common sense and ultimately an expensive mistake.

From Ziggy Stardust to autonomous trains…

The Badger’s currently reading ‘How we lived then’ by Norman Longmate, a book about everyday life in Great Britain during the Second World War. It cost £1 from a charity shop and it’s a fascinating read. Written in 1971, it describes what life was really like for ordinary members of the public between 1939 and 1945. If you thought things were difficult during COVID, then think again! The Badger was attracted to the book because his parents rarely spoke about their young adult lives in the war years, and because it was written in 1971 at the start of decade of turmoil, transformation, and rich personal memories.

By the 1970s, life for young adults had changed dramatically to that in the 1940s when, for example, military or civilian war service, rationing, and music from the likes of Glen Miller or Bing Crosby provided its drumbeat. In the 1970s, life for young adults was unrestrained, independent, and full of transformations and diverse music like David Bowie’s 1972 album ‘Ziggy Stardust and the Spiders from Mars’ and many other classics of the same year. You might be wondering, at this point, how you get from 1970s books and music to autonomous trains? Well, easily as it happens, because the 1970s was also a decade of transformation for our railways and today, some 50 years later, they are undergoing transformation again driven by government infrastructure investment, huge advances in digital technology, and changing passenger dynamics following the pandemic.

In the 1970s, diesel and electric locomotives had replaced steam, electronic signalling was in its infancy, electrification was limited, ticketing meant visiting a manned ticket office at a railway station and strikes and cancelled trains were commonplace. This short 1972 film provides a simple insight to the railways and its technology of the time. As it ends, it makes a crucial point, namely that railway people were in an industry that is ‘both old and new’.

Today the railways are providing a service to passengers with powerful smartphones in their pockets, with better quality rolling stock, with self-service ticketing using machines and online facilities, and with real-time passenger information at the same time as progressing a Digital Programme deploying high-tech signalling, train control, and safety systems to increase capacity, reduce delays, and drive down costs. As this signalling piece highlights, this is a complex, difficult and slow task because the railway industry is always going to be ‘both old and new’ making transformation a perpetual process akin to re-engineering a Jumbo Jet while in flight! Nevertheless, progress towards a digital future and autonomous trains is being made.

Transformations are often constrained by workforce factors rather than technology. With train strikes imminent, it’s depressing that workforce factors still get in the way of the railway industry speedily embracing the modern, digital, increasingly autonomous, world we all inhabit. Sadly, some things don’t seem to have changed much since the 1970s.

Autonomous ships…

Smart meters, smart phones, smart televisions, smart home security cameras, smart central heating, smart lighting, and smart white goods are commonplace in today’s world. We also regularly encounter smart motorways and ever-smarter vehicles as we go about our daily lives. All of this just illustrates that no aspect of our lives is immune to the relentless advance of digital technologies. However, while most public interest and mainstream media attention tends to focus on things that either do or will have a direct personal impact on the majority of us, there are many advances underway that get much less airtime. Autonomous ships seems to be one such area.

Some months ago, while examining the forecast timeline for the mass adoption of truly autonomous (driverless) cars on public highways, the Badger came across something that triggered more personal interest in progress towards autonomous ships. It was the online dashboard of the Mayflower Autonomous Ship (MAS), a 15-metre-long research trimaran recreating the historic Mayflower voyage of 1620 from Plymouth in the UK to the USA , but with no humans on board! MAS, built by Promare and IBM, and packed with sensors, AI, and autonomous technology, has not been without problems, as you can see here. Nevertheless, it has now reached North America, all be it Halifax in Canada rather than the USA, and it’s been possible to monitor its vital signs and footage from its cameras via the online dashboard throughout the journey across the Atlantic.  

MAS’s journey will undoubtedly have added to the learning and knowledge essential for scaling up to the much larger autonomous ships of the future. Smart technology on large ships already has a lot of traction and Hyundai, for example, announced just a few days ago that it was the first to pilot a ‘large autonomous ship across the ocean. The ship was fully crewed and while much of its journey was under the control of autonomous technology, much of it was not. Realistically, the days of truly autonomous civilian shipping with no crew aboard are still some way off. As might be expected,  however,  in the military domain the development of small and large autonomous vessels for naval forces has been progressing steadily. Indeed, the USA, for example, has this year created an unmanned vessel division within its Navy, and is recognising a need to build a fleet of autonomous platforms to counter threats from other superpowers.

It’s inevitable that autonomous civilian and military ships will be a feature of life for future generations. Unlike autonomous cars and aircraft, they don’t seem to attract the same level of interest in the mainstream media and general public, which the Badger finds a little surprising given the UK is an island nation and taking a cruise holiday could one day mean travelling and living on a ship that has no crew!