In a world of complication, simplicity is best…

The need to replace a broken light switch this week made the Badger think about how the march of digital technology produces a world of complication for the average person. Visiting a local electrical store for a new switch, one that simply turns the lights on or off when you press its rocker, led to a discussion with the store owner, a friend of a friend. They asked if the Badger wanted a ‘normal’ switch or a ‘smart ‘one. The Badger said the former. The shop was quiet, so we chatted.

Knowing the Badger’s IT background, the owner expressed surprise that he didn’t want a ‘smart’ switch that controlled lights using a smartphone app. The owner isn’t actually a fan of ‘smart’ lighting products for the home, but they sell them because they are a highly profitable product line with Millennials apparently the main customers, although sales had dropped recently. The Badger said a conventional switch served his need because it was simple, performed its primary function well (turning a light on or off), and devoid of complications like having a smartphone, an app, a Wi-Fi network or worrying about data security. The owner chuckled and called the Badger a dinosaur! ‘You won’t be buying one of my ‘smart’ fridges or washing machines then?’ they asked waving towards models in the store. They knew the answer.

A discussion on the pros and cons of ‘smart’ fridges and washing machines ensued. The owner believes that most customers for these items never used their digital and network features to the full. Most, they asserted, just used the standard functions that are found on more traditional, cheaper, models. We agreed that competition between manufacturers to add more ‘smart home’ capabilities to their products meant they’ve  become packed with features that make the units more complicated for the average person to use. What’s wrong with a simple to use fridge or washing machine that just concentrates on its fundamental purpose at a sensible price? Nothing, we concluded as the conversation drew to an end with an influx of new customers.

Since the 1980s, when the information technology landscape we have today didn’t exist, a host of technological and societal changes have occurred. Computational power, the internet, the digitisation of data, systems that interact independently, and new business models have had a massive impact, and many people still struggle with the changes and complications to their daily lives. Technology will complicate daily life for the foreseeable future, but people are beginning to shun technology for the simplicity of  traditional and familiar things that work and have done so for years. Do you really need to be able to talk to your fridge and washing machine? Just because modern technology means you can, doesn’t mean you should….

The Law of Unintended Consequences…

If you’ve a couple of minutes spare then read the item here. It was published in 2013 and what’s striking is that the exact same words could be used if it had been written today! A 2010 item, ‘Technology: The law of unintended consequences, by the same author also stands the test of time. Reading both has caused the Badger to muse on unintended consequences, especially those that have emerged from the digital and online world over the last few decades.

The ‘Law of Unintended Consequences’ is real and is, in essence, quite simple. It declares that every action by a person, company, or government can have positive or negative consequences that are unforeseen. An amusing manifestation of the law in action happened in 2016 when a UK Government agency conducted an online poll for the public to name the agency’s latest polar research ship. The public’s choice, Boaty McBoatface, wasn’t the kind of name the agency anticipated!

One characteristic of unintended consequences is that they tend to emerge over a long period. The internet and social media illustrate this neatly. Both have changed the behaviour of people (especially the young), companies, and governments, and both have challenged safety, security, and privacy like never before. Indeed, the Australian government’s recent decision to ban those under 16 years old from social media demonstrates just how long it’s taken to address some of social media’s unintended consequences since its advent a couple of decades ago.

During his IT career, the Badger participated in delivering the many benefits of digital and online technology to society, but now, more mindful of unintended consequences, he wonders if a future dominated by virtuality, AI, and colossal tech corporations is a good thing for his grandson’s generation. After all, the online and digital world is not where real, biological, life takes place, and there’s more to life than being a slave to our devices.

The ‘Law of Unintended Consequences’ can never be ignored. Although a professional and disciplined approach to progress always reduces the scope for unintended consequences, the fact is these will happen. This means, for example, that there’ll be unintended consequences from the likes of AI, driverless vehicles, and robots at home, and that, in practice, it will take years for these unintended consequences to emerge properly. But emerge they will!

Looking back over recent decades, it’s clear that digital and online technology has delivered benefits. It’s also clear that it’s brought complication, downsides, and unintended consequences to the lives of people in all age groups. The Badger’s concluded that we need a law that captures the relationship between progress, unintended consequences, and real life. So, here’s Badger’s Law: ‘Progress always produces unintended consequences that complicate and compromise the real life of people’. Gosh, it’s astonishing where articles penned over a decade ago can take your thoughts…

The digital world needs nuclear fusion!

When reading recently  that the ITER experimental nuclear fusion reactor under construction in Cadarache, France, is delayed by at least a decade, the Badger sighed deeply. The delay to this huge endeavour, a collaboration involving 35 nations,  inevitably puts back the holy grail of ‘limitless clean energy for the benefit of mankind’ from a tokomak reactor by many decades…again! Why the Badger’s sigh? Because his PhD and subsequent research, many years ago, related to the damage helium ions can cause in potential tokomak first wall materials. At that time, the Joint European Torus (JET) was under construction at Culham in the UK and the ultimate goal of ‘limitless clean energy for the benefit of mankind’ via fusion seemed achievable within the Badger’s lifetime. Realistically, that’s no longer the case, hence the sigh. The holy grail of ‘limitless clean energy‘ from fusion reactors is still far away even though the need for it has never been greater.

ITER, however, is getting a run for its money from private firms within the Fusion Industry Association (FIA). In July 2023, the FIA said that 4 private firms believed they could deliver fusion power into the grid by 2030 and 19 firms believed they could do so by 2035. The Badger’s sceptical. However, given the speedy technological advances of recent decades, these beliefs cannot be completely dismissed if recent technological momentum continues unabated. Wait a minute, you might say if the word ‘nuclear’ always sends uncomfortable shudders down your spine, why do we need power produced by nuclear fusion at all? The answer’s quite simple. As this article points out, and this one reinforces, the world is 86% driven by fossil fuels and energy demand is forecast to rise by 50% from today’s level by 2050. Global energy demand is then expected to triple between 2050 and 2100!  To get anywhere near meeting these forecasts, and have a decarbonised world, requires fusion to provide ‘limitless clean energy for the benefit of mankind’. Yes, wind, solar, and tidal power will play their part, but can they service the scale of this demand without blighting every picturesque part of our planet? That’s debatable.

So, here’s the thing. Digital transformation of the world economy continues at pace. The amount of data created, captured, copied, and consumed will be nearly three times as much in 2025 as in 2020.   AI, the Internet of Things, cryptocurrency, and the digital automation of everything comes with a dramatic increase in electricity usage which cannot be met by non-nuclear renewables alone. When we use our computers, tablets and smartphones we are contributing to the rising demand for electricity, and we are also thus unconsciously making the case for why we need fusion reactors to provide ‘limitless clean energy for the benefit of mankind’. Let’s hope ITER isn’t the only game in town, because if it is then a digital future may not be quite what we currently envisage.

‘The Magic Roundabout’ and the tech industry…

The  Magic Roundabout was a beloved children’s programme on UK television between 1965 and 1977. It was produced using stop-motion animation, and it achieved cult status with children and adults alike. Its human characters were Florence, a young girl, and Mr Rusty, the elderly operator of the roundabout. The other main characters were Zebedee the talking jack-in-the box with magical powers, Brian the snail, Ermintrude the cow, and Dylan the hippy-like, guitar-playing, dopey rabbit! It was essential tea-time viewing at the time, and it’s use of stop-motion animation was groundbreaking.

Children’s television programmes, and the technology creating them, have changed vastly since the last episode aired in 1977, and the Badger recently found himself unexpectedly engaged in a conversation comparing ‘The Magic Roundabout’ with today’s tech/IT industry! The conversation happened while visiting a local shop that buys and sells vintage vinyl music records. It’s a lively, friendly establishment, where browsing is encouraged while the owner plays vintage records on turntables behind the till. The Badger’s visit was ostensibly to enquire if any of the vinyl he still has from his youth is of interest to collectors. Before asking, the Badger browsed the shops offerings and a disc from 1975, ‘Funky Moped’ by Jasper Carrot with ‘Magic Roundabout’ on the B-side, caught his eye. It was hard to supress a grin!

Enquiring about the Badger’s own vintage records ultimately led to two things. Firstly, a realisation that some of them are rare and have notable value. One, for example, is his mono Rolling Stones ‘Let it Bleed’ LP in pristine original condition with its original poster. Secondly, it started a discussion with the shop’s owner that ended up not only comparing ‘The Magic Roundabout’ with the tech industry, but also agreeing that Jasper Carrot’s irreverent Magic Roundabout’ routine was, let’s say, of its time!   

It felt surreal comparing ‘The Magic Roundabout’ with the tech industry in a vintage record shop, especially when more similarities emerged than expected. The television programme, for example, featured diverse characters with unique traits and perspectives, and it’s whimsical scripts led to surprising outcomes. The tech industry also features diverse characters with unique traits, skills, and perspectives, and the industry produces surprising outcomes. Both employ advanced techniques embodying creativity, innovation, adaptability, and cross-generation interconnectedness. Both also evoke nostalgia. Who, for example, doesn’t fondly recall their early tech devices and their first forays accessing the internet?

The Badger eventually left the shop reminded that a face-to-face conversation with another person is always an interesting and thought-provoking experience, regardless of what you talk about. Face-to-face conversations are something we should all do more of in today’s world. Walking home, the Badger had the phrase ‘Boing, said Zebedee’ rattling in his head. Hmm, perhaps ‘Boing, said Elon’ might be more apt for today’s world…

Information is not knowledge. The only source of knowledge is experience. You need experience to gain wisdom…

It’s not unusual when having met a senior leader or company executive for the first time to come away feeling either impressed and respectful, or underwhelmed and sceptical. Of his many such encounters, the Badger always remembers one because it involved ‘age’ and ‘wisdom’ !  

The CEO of a niche tech company approached the Badger’s CEO to ask if they could talk informally to ‘someone with experience and wisdom’ about IT delivery. The two CEOs knew each other through being on the same committee of a trade body. Out of good will, the Badger’s CEO asked him to meet with the individual to share some wisdom gleaned from his IT delivery experience. The Badger duly met the tech CEO, and after a few opening pleasantries, was told by the latter that he was probably too old to provide the kind of wisdom they were looking for! The 35-year-old CEO believed that wisdom provided by anyone older than themselves was outdated and irrelevant. The Badger, a decade or more older with some grey hairs, managed to suppress his irritation!

The CEO was polite but dismissive of the Badger’s experience and guidance. They believed that someone younger and focused on every facet of the latest hot trends would provide more valuable input. This rankled, but the Badger simply pointed out that if they didn’t want his advice, then that was, of course, their prerogative. The meeting soon ended. The Badger’s parting shot was to say that he was proud to have reached an age, maturity, and independence that’s so neatly expressed in Einstein’s quote, ‘I have reached an age when, if someone tells me to wear socks, I don’t have to’. The Badger reported back to his boss that he was unimpressed. His boss wasn’t surprised, admitted to disliking the individual, and expressed an opinion that the tech CEO wouldn’t last long in their job. They were right!

The US Presidential Election has put age in the spotlight. Both candidates are much older than the averages for Fortune 500 company chiefs, FTSE 100 CEOs, and 2024 UK Members of Parliament (59.2, 55, and 50 years old, respectively).  The average age of workers  in tech and IT is much closer to that of the 35-year-old tech CEO, and so for those working in these dynamic sectors, it’s worth remembering that we aren’t born with wisdom, age alone doesn’t imply wisdom, and that those who have it acquire it over time through work, personal, educational and social experiences, and exposure to the behaviour of others. That’s why for a long career and to acquire wisdom  you must continually expand your real experience and real skills rather than academically fixate on the latest hot trend. Einstein, after all, said that ‘Information is not knowledge. The only source of knowledge is experience. You need experience to gain wisdom’, and he was right…

Physics, Chemistry, Mathematics and Light underpin the digital world of tomorrow…

A trip to the supermarket provided a reminder that without physics, chemistry, and mathematics none of our modern tech, internet, and online services would exist. Hardly a revelation, but what triggered this heightened awareness? Well, just the simple act of taking a small bag of spent disposable batteries to a recycling bin in the supermarket’s checkout area. The bin was full to overflowing with used disposable batteries from toys, clocks, TV remotes, cordless computer keyboards, wireless mice, and a myriad of other sources that use replaceable batteries as a power source. The act of depositing his spent batteries reminded the Badger that each one is actually a little capsule of physics, chemistry, and mathematics, and that our digital world depends on these subjects and batteries of one form or another.

On returning home, the Badger reflected on the science, materials, manufacturing, and recycling of these disposable batteries and whether they’ll ultimately be made redundant by newer power source innovations in the decades ahead. After all, the Titanium Citizen Eco-Drive watch on the Badger’s wrist uses solar and artificial light for power rather than replaceable batteries. It’s a technology that dates back to the mid-1970s, so it’s not new. Furthermore, the 1980s pocket calculator sitting on the Badger’s desk is also solar powered with no replaceable batteries. It’s a memento from a major 1980’s software development project and it works just as well today as it did back then! The Badger thus found himself wondering why power derived from light sources hasn’t rendered the disposable battery redundant in the last 40 years. Well, to make a functionally reliable, manufacturable, commercially viable product that has physics, chemistry, and mathematics at its core takes years of research to come to fruition. The good news is that it looks like lengthy research is bearing fruit and we may soon see a revolution that makes natural and artificial light the power source for a wide range of our devices, see here and here.

We should not be surprised that the coming years are likely to see a significant change in how our in-home devices, smart tech, and personal computing devices are powered. The use of replaceable batteries looks destined to decline. There’ll ultimately be no more charging cables, and no more trips to the supermarket to recycle spent batteries! Things, of course, are never that clear cut, but if light photons hitting panels on a home’s roof can generate electricity for household use, then it’s inevitably just a matter of time before light will power our gadgets and render disposable batteries redundant.

Fundamentally, power sources – and everything else in our modern digital world – are determined by physics, chemistry, mathematics and years of research. We should never shy away from being educated in these subjects because they – and light – are the seeds that will determine whatever we want the digital world of the future to be…

Communication is at the heart of everything…

Electric lighting has revolutionised our lives by illuminating our homes, streets, and cities. It was only after the end of the First World War that electricity began to find its way into most of our UK homes. Rolling out electricity supply across the country took time. In 1919 only 6% of homes were wired up, and it took until the late 1930s for this number to grow to ~66%. By then all new homes in urban areas were being built with  electric lighting as standard. How things have changed since! Today the flick of a switch, a tap on an app, or a voice command will light up rooms in our home providing instant artificial light for reading, cooking, and hobbies even on the darkest of nights. It’s something we take for granted today, largely oblivious to the fact that light at the flick of a switch was an unthinkable luxury for the vast majority of people a century ago.

Lighting our homes, community, and city streets has become more high-tech today than ever before. Streetlights come on when it gets dark, help to keep road users and pedestrians safe and secure, and help to extend our activities outdoors. However, they have downsides. Light pollution from urban areas is one of them, as we can readily see in images taken by satellites and astronauts. There’s always a glow on the horizon which dilutes the visibility of stars in the night sky when walking through suburbs after dark. Furthermore, street lighting’s energy consumption is a matter of global concern because lighting accounts for ~19% of global electricity usage. With resources limited, climate change, and the world’s population forecast to be largely urban by mid-century, it’s not a surprise that ‘smart street lighting’ has progressed over the last two decades.

‘Smart street lighting’  – a connected, sensor-heavy, lighting system allowing individual or groups of lights to be controlled remotely in real time – enables public areas and thoroughfares to be lit more considerately based on their use. Motion detectors, for example, mean that areas can be lit only when people or moving vehicles are present. It’s energy efficient, climate friendly, sustainable and a component within the broader umbrella of ‘smart cities’. At the heart of ‘smart street lighting’ is a fundamental capability, namely the ability to communicate data between disparate and spatially separate entities – an ability which has been at the heart of technological progress for many, many, many decades.

Smart street lighting’ and Voyager 1, currently 15 billion miles from Earth in deep space, thus have something in common – both fundamentally need to communicate information to be useful. They are not only both testament to the talent of the scientists and engineers of their eras, but also to the fact that communication in one form or another has always been at the heart of everything in our lives…

A walk in the woods, swarms of drones embodying AI, and fly spray…

A walk in the woods is good for body and soul, especially in the Spring when bluebells abound. Every walk is memorable in some way, as a couple of encounters reminded the Badger recently. The first encounter involved wildlife. A vixen with two cubs emerged from the undergrowth and sat in the middle of the path to stare at a stationary Badger drinking from his water bottle. They were ~3 metres away, unfazed by human presence, and nonchalantly disappeared back into the undergrowth after about a minute. The second encounter happened ten minutes later as the path bisected an open expanse of scrubland. It was with a police officer landing a drone which had been used in a successful search for someone who’d failed to return from walking their dog in the area. ‘That’s a useful bit of kit’, the Badger quipped to the officer. ‘Yep, but a drone swarm would be better’, the officer responded adding that whereas people knew that individual drones are routine tools for many, swarms embodying AI warrant greater public awareness.

Drones vary in shape, size, function, and sophistication. Everyone has some awareness of them through their appearance in many movies (see here for example) over decades. The capabilities of drones imagined in such movies are today either a reality, or soon to be so. Drones are a growth area. Indeed, the UK Government has envisaged  that 900,000 commercial drones could be operating in UK skies by 2030.  Drones have long been tools in many commercial sectors (e.g. agriculture, energy supply, and property marketing), in the media/broadcasting, and with hobbyists and the TikTok generation, and so this vision seems possible. Drones are also already key tools in law enforcement where they help in monitoring major incidents, events, suspects, crime scenes, traffic, and in the search for missing persons. Military use of them is common and rapidly expanding for reconnaissance, intelligence gathering, and lethal force, as readily illustrated in the Ukraine and Middle East conflicts. Military drone use continues to expand (e.g. see here ), and swarms of drones embodying AI will eventually transform  military operations even more dramatically. It thus seems inevitable that drone swarms will eventually become a regular facet of civilian life too.

Personal security and safety advice for when you are away from your home has long centred on being aware of your environment and listening to and observing the behaviour of those around you. With drone swarms on the horizon, we should now be observing and listening to what’s in the sky too! Of course, someone will eventually produce a drone countermeasure for personal use by anyone in the general public. Now that’s an off-the-wall thought to end with, probably triggered by learning that fly spray and insect repellent are essential when walking through woods in the warm Spring sunshine…

Air Canada and the ‘hallucination’ of a chatbot…

An email arrived from the Badger’s car insurance provider recently. It advised that a renewal quote was in his online account. Logging in revealed a 25% increase in premium! A check using market comparison sites provided quotes for the same cover within a few pounds of his existing premium. The Badger thus used the provider’s chatbot within his account to signal his intent to take his business elsewhere. The chatbot dialogue, however, ultimately resulted in the Badger staying with his provider with the same cover at the price he currently pays!

This is a commonplace renewal dynamic, but the Badger found himself musing on his experience. Apart from being irritated by his provider’s attempted 25% price rise when they were obviously prepared to retain their customer for a much lower price, using the chatbot was easy, efficient, and quick. However, it  wasn’t obvious at any stage in the chatbot dialogue whether the Badger had really conversed with a human in the provider’s organisation. This meant that both he and the provider were implicitly accepting the validity of the chatbot’s deal. A number of ‘what if’ scenarios regarding customer use of AI chatbots started bubbling in the Badger’s brain. And then he read, here and here, about Air Canada and its AI chatbot!

An AI chatbot on the Air Canada website advised a passenger that they could book a full-fare flight to attend their grandmother’s funeral and claim for a discounted bereavement fare thereafter. Guidance elsewhere on the website was different. The passenger did as the chatbot guided and subsequently claimed for the bereavement discount. Air Canada refused the claim, and the parties ended up at a Tribunal with the airline arguing that the chatbot was ‘responsible for its own actions’. The Tribunal ruled for the passenger and that the airline was liable for negligent misrepresentation. The case not only establishes the principle that companies are liable for what their AI chatbots say and do, but it also highlights – as noted here – broader risks for businesses when adopting AI tools.

The amount of money for the discount claim was small (<CAN$500) but the Tribunal’s findings will reverberate widely. The case also exposes something which is commonplace with many big companies, namely the dominance of a legalistic behavioural culture regardless of common-sense within an organisation. This was a bereaved customer complying with advice given by the company’s AI chatbot on the company’s own website, and yet rather than be empathetic, take responsibility, and apply common-sense, the company chose a legal route and to hide behind ‘the hallucination’ of its chatbot. So, bravo to the passenger for fighting their corner, bravo to the Tribunal for their common-sense judgement, and yes bravo to Air Canada for making sure that we all now know that companies cannot shirk responsibility for the behaviour of their AI chatbots…

A world without Google…

A feature entitled Where would we be without Google’ appeared on the IET (Institution of Engineering and Technology) website last week. It’s an insightful, entertaining article that takes a wry look at how Google (or more properly Alphabet) has become part of today’s critical infrastructure and why we must let it stay that way. The Badger nodded in agreement when reading the author’s words that the world created by Google should more accurately be described as the world that we – consumers, society, and legislators – have allowed Google to create. The Badger also sympathises with the feature’s conclusion, that for the sake of humanity Google must never be allowed to stop because  nobody knows what might happen if somebody switched its services off. The consequences would be awful in ways that we haven’t envisaged.

Since every facet of personal, public, and business life involves risk, believing that Google could never be ‘switched off’ seems foolish, especially when big tech wields more power than governments, and global instability is on the rise. Switching Google off would be a digital earthquake that shakes the very heart of today’s connected world. Its likelihood may be low, but it’s clearly an identifiable risk and so it’s worth thinking about the impact if it were to happen? Do you know what the consequences would be? Do you know what you would do if you woke up one morning and Google wasn’t there? Probably not, because it’s doubtful that most people have this eventuality on their personal radar. To tickle your thoughts, therefore, here’s a brief sense of the impact if Google was ‘switched off’.

Our go-to source for answers, information, translation, scholarly articles, and academic papers (Google Search, Translate, Scholar) would vanish. A billion or more email inboxes, virtual meetings, and chats would fall silent (Gmail, Google Meet,  Hangouts). Travellers and delivery drivers would become disoriented and wander aimlessly (Google Maps). Online collaborative work would grind to a halt and documents, spreadsheets, presentations, and critical business files would disappear (Google Drive, Docs, Sheets, Slides). Similarly, YouTube creators and viewers would lose their stage and access to content, smart homes would lose their brains, and thermostats, house cameras, and doorbells would lose connectivity. Marketeers and advertisers would find their strategies undermined, and businesses using Google Cloud would be disrupted. Your Android phone would need a new operating system. Just imagine the turmoil as you and a billion others try to adjust at the same time!

It’s unthinkable that Google would ever be switched off, you say. Maybe, but thinking about the unthinkable is at the heart of good risk management. What can we do to minimise the impact on ourselves? Well, the saying  ‘don’t have all your eggs in one basket’ comes to mind. It’s as relevant today as it was before big tech dominated the world…