Nuclear reactors on the moon – a geopolitical investment in future dominance of Space…

The building of software and systems for Space missions, and to control satellites and process associated data, was an interesting and  fascinating area throughout the Badger’s IT career. Today it’s easy to forget that the imagery we take for granted with the weather forecast is produced by systems and software created by developers with excellent science,  engineering, and computing credentials, most of whom have little interest in working outside the Space sector. The Badger observed, over the years, that developers in this area often preferred to leave for another Space sector company rather than be assigned to a project outside the sector if there was a lull in available projects.

The Badger thus had two initial thoughts when the US announced an acceleration of its plans to put a nuclear reactor on the moon. The first was ‘Great. More opportunities for developers in the Space sector if AI hasn’t taken their jobs’. The second was more philosophical and about the tension between visionary ambitions and pragmatic, grounded responsibility. The US plan, and the equivalents of Russia and China, is driven by a mix of strategic, technological, and geopolitical motives. However, is it sensible and in humanity’s interest for the Earth’s most powerful nations to spend huge amounts of money on Space endeavours when there’s a pressing need for it to be spent resolving problems on our planet? Should there be investment in long-term Space infrastructure that might, a long time from now, redefine humanity’s future? The answers depend, of course, on your perspective on life and our world.

Some see Space endeavours as a driver of innovation and ultimate human survival, whereas others see them as distractions from addressing real problems here on Earth. To the Badger, all plans for a nuclear reactor on the moon simply illustrate the shift away from an ethos of inquisitive exploration to one of establishing national strategic dominance making Space a domain of economic leverage, diplomacy, and warfare. Regardless of who does it, putting a reactor on the moon is an outright geopolitical investment in establishing future dominance. The prospect of the geopolitical tensions we see on Earth playing out on the Moon and beyond seems, at least to the Badger, grotesque.

Investments in Space endeavours push technological boundaries, reshape thinking, and stimulate innovation, but the fact is that humans are biologically unsuited to the environment beyond our planet is undeniable. So, in an age of automation, robotics, and AI, why spend huge sums sending and supporting humans on the Moon and beyond when robots can do the same job and the savings can be used to address humanity’s issues here on Earth? Is that idealism? Perhaps, but all it would take is leadership on behalf of all of humanity rather than individual nations. And there’s the rub, the likelihood of that ever happening, of course, is…er…zero.

Once upon a time there was the Strategic Defense Initiative (Starwars)…

There comes a time when a room at home needs a decorative refresh. That time recently came in the Badger household, and so he deployed his practical skills to refurbish the room himself. The project was planned, agreed with an important stakeholder (the wife), and fastidiously executed. The room’s now in the post-delivery phase with the small list of defects pointed out at acceptance by the important stakeholder now corrected. Painting walls listening to good music playing on the radio during the project proved a more satisfying experience than expected. On finishing one wall, and while stepping back admiring his handiwork, the Badger found himself listening to the broadcaster’s regular news bulletin and sighing deeply on hearing that President Trump had unveiled plans for a ~$175 billion US ‘Golden Dome’ missile defence system. Memories of President Reagan’s 1983 Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI) came flooding back.

The goal of SDI was to develop a system that could intercept and destroy incoming nuclear missiles, effectively shielding the USA from a potential Soviet attack during the Cold War. Many dubbed it ‘Star Wars’ because of its proposed use of space-based technology. At the time, the Badger was working on the software design and development of a Relational Database Management System (RDMS) product – pretty cutting edge at the time. He remembers thinking that SDI would never come to fruition. Indeed, SDI itself was never fully realised, but its ideas have shaped military technology and policies in Missile and Space-based defence, Cybersecurity strategy, and International Collaboration ever since.

Rolling forward 40 years, the world is a quite different place geopolitically, technologically, economically, and militarily. Daily civilian and military life now depends on digital capabilities that didn’t exist in 1983, and continued rapid tech advances, innovation and AI are changing both domains at a rate never imagined just a few decades ago. Reagan’s SDI initiative and President Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’ share some similarities, but whilst the available tech in 1983 meant the former’s space-based missile defence was largely theoretical, President Trump’s benefits from modern, real, sophisticated satellite, space, sensor, and missile technologies. ‘Golden Dome’ revives elements of SDI but it also suffers from some of the same challenges, particularly, around cost, scepticism about its effectiveness, and concern that it dramatically escalates the global arms race. It’s certain, however, that just as happened when SDI was announced in 1983, military and tech sector commercial organisations will be relishing the prospect of picking up ‘Golden Dome’ contracts regardless of whether its stated ambitions will ever fully come to fruition.

But why did the Badger sigh so deeply on hearing about ‘Golden Dome’ on the radio? It was simply an instant reaction to the feeling that it’s another step on the road to creating the Terminator film’s SKYNET system for real, and that our species seems intent on a path that can lead to eventual self-inflicted extinction.

Human Space travel to Mars? Just send Intelligent Machines…

‘Space, the final frontier. These are the voyages of the Starship Enterprise. Its five-year mission – to explore strange new worlds, to seek out new life and new civilizations, to boldly go where no man has gone before’.

In September 1966, these iconic words were heard for the first time when Star Trek arrived on television. They, in essence, remind us that the pursuit of knowledge and the exploration of the unknown are central to what it means to be human. They inspire us to dream big, embrace challenges, and continually seek to expand our understanding. The words were narrated before man landed on the moon, before the internet, before smartphones and laptops, and when the computing power available to astronauts was miniscule compared to that of a mid-range smartphone. Things have changed extraordinarily since 1966,  but the opening words to Star Trek episodes are just as relevant to what it means to be human today.

Space travel is difficult, as US billionaires will attest (see here and here, for example). Today’s Space-race is different to that of the 1960s with, for example, the likes of India and China part of the fray. Putting humans back on the Moon is a key objective, and the USA’s Artemis programme intends to do just that within the next few years, if things go to plan.  Putting human feet on Mars, as reaffirmed by the USA’s President Trump during his inauguration this week, is also an objective. The Badger, however, senses that it’s unlikely to happen for decades yet, if at all.

Why the scepticism? Well, two things. The first is that putting humans on Mars and bringing them back is much more challenging than returning to the Moon. The second thing is more fundamental. In the ~60 years since Star Trek’s iconic words were first heard, life and our knowledge of Space has been transformed through technological advances, especially in the sphere of capturing, processing, and using information digitally. Advances in digital technology continue apace with AI and intelligent machines fast becoming a reality. Indeed, Mr Trump has announced huge investment in Stargate, AI infrastructure.  The automation of everything with machines becoming as intelligent as humans begs a question, namely ‘Is prolonged human travel in Space really viable and economically sensible?’

The evidence implies that humans are unsuited to prolonged Space travel (e.g. see here and here). So why send humans to Mars when intelligent machines are a better option? Perhaps a rethink of putting humans on Mars will happen as AI and intelligent machines become mainstream, perhaps it won’t. Meantime the Badger wholly subscribes to the pursuit of knowledge and exploration of the unknown, but he will enjoy Star Trek for what it is, just imaginative  entertainment…

Communication is at the heart of everything…

Electric lighting has revolutionised our lives by illuminating our homes, streets, and cities. It was only after the end of the First World War that electricity began to find its way into most of our UK homes. Rolling out electricity supply across the country took time. In 1919 only 6% of homes were wired up, and it took until the late 1930s for this number to grow to ~66%. By then all new homes in urban areas were being built with  electric lighting as standard. How things have changed since! Today the flick of a switch, a tap on an app, or a voice command will light up rooms in our home providing instant artificial light for reading, cooking, and hobbies even on the darkest of nights. It’s something we take for granted today, largely oblivious to the fact that light at the flick of a switch was an unthinkable luxury for the vast majority of people a century ago.

Lighting our homes, community, and city streets has become more high-tech today than ever before. Streetlights come on when it gets dark, help to keep road users and pedestrians safe and secure, and help to extend our activities outdoors. However, they have downsides. Light pollution from urban areas is one of them, as we can readily see in images taken by satellites and astronauts. There’s always a glow on the horizon which dilutes the visibility of stars in the night sky when walking through suburbs after dark. Furthermore, street lighting’s energy consumption is a matter of global concern because lighting accounts for ~19% of global electricity usage. With resources limited, climate change, and the world’s population forecast to be largely urban by mid-century, it’s not a surprise that ‘smart street lighting’ has progressed over the last two decades.

‘Smart street lighting’  – a connected, sensor-heavy, lighting system allowing individual or groups of lights to be controlled remotely in real time – enables public areas and thoroughfares to be lit more considerately based on their use. Motion detectors, for example, mean that areas can be lit only when people or moving vehicles are present. It’s energy efficient, climate friendly, sustainable and a component within the broader umbrella of ‘smart cities’. At the heart of ‘smart street lighting’ is a fundamental capability, namely the ability to communicate data between disparate and spatially separate entities – an ability which has been at the heart of technological progress for many, many, many decades.

Smart street lighting’ and Voyager 1, currently 15 billion miles from Earth in deep space, thus have something in common – both fundamentally need to communicate information to be useful. They are not only both testament to the talent of the scientists and engineers of their eras, but also to the fact that communication in one form or another has always been at the heart of everything in our lives…

India, a technological force to be reckoned with…

Legend has it that Buzz Aldrin played a cassette of Frank Sinatra’s ‘Fly me to the moon’ when the Apollo 11 lander touched down on the Moon in 1969. If that’s true, then it was the first song ever played on the lunar surface.  This trivia came to mind when India’s  unmanned Chandrayaan-3 mission recently landed at the Moon’s South Pole, just days after Russia’s Luna-25 failed attempting the same feat. News of the Indian landing made the Badger wonder if the lander had played Bollywood music on touch down! Whether it did or not is, of course, immaterial. What is material is that India has cemented its position as a force to be reckoned with in space technology, and that its achievement will reverberate for decades to come.  

The Badger first visited India in the late 1990s when offshoring software development and IT services was rapidly accelerating. This first visit, as a member of a UK team performing due diligence on a small Bangalore company being strategically purchased to grow into a major offshore delivery centre, changed and expanded the Badger’s mindset. On the flight to India, the Badger had been sceptical that he would observe capabilities similar to the norm in the UK, Europe, or North America. On the return flight, that scepticism had reduced significantly because he’d witnessed impressive technical prowess from people who were young, well educated, motivated, hungry to learn, hungry to better themselves and their families, and hungry for success for their team and country.  

During the trip, the Badger visited a lush, modern, technology campus housing mainly call centres for some large UK financial services companies. It was buzzing, well organised, and the people were articulate and passionate about their work.  Most call handlers were university graduates. They were paid a good salary by India standards, but a fraction of what was paid in the UK, Europe or North America. The campus visit, and days spent with the technical designers and programmers at the company being purchased, opened the Badger’s mind. India’s software and IT talent could not be ignored, and it was good value for money.  On the flight home, the Badger knew that capitalising on that talent by offshoring to India was essential, and that making it happen across an established UK IT business would be a challenge.  

Much has happened in the intervening years. Today, Indian companies like TCS and Infosys are ranked in the Top 10 global IT companies (none of which are headquartered in the UK). All the Top 10 have sizeable capabilities based in India. The Chandrayaan-3 moon landing thus further illustrates the depth and diversity of India’s technological prowess. India will undoubtedly be a technological force to be reckoned with for decades to come. Can the same be said for the UK? Now that’s an interesting question…

Return to Space…

Idling on the sofa at home after a meeting, the Badger wanted to do nothing more energetic than watching a Netflix film. Whatever he watched, the Badger knew it would probably have something in common with the meeting he attended, namely that it would be much longer than it needed to be! With low expectations that it would keep his attention for the duration, the Badger  selected the documentary film ‘Return to Space’ about SpaceX’s activities to deliver astronauts from American soil to the International Space Station (ISS).  The film proved more engaging than expected. Why? Not because it features Elon Musk, but because the Badger, as an IT professional and delivery leader with strong roots in science and engineering, could relate from his own career experiences to the SpaceX team’s dedication and hard work, and their relief and exhilaration when their goals were met.

After the documentary ended, the Badger’s lasting impressions centred on four things. The first was that this endeavour would not have been possible without a multidisciplinary team of scientists, engineers, and mathematicians. This should inspire youngsters to study STEM subjects and develop their careers accordingly. The second was that the whole leadership and management were disciplined and entirely focused on important milestones, solving problems, and the ultimate goal. No team will deliver without focused, disciplined, objective, and committed leadership and management. The third was the excellent teamwork, testing, risk mitigation, and fact-based rigour in decision making on display. Those involved were motivated, clear on their roles and responsibilities, and stood by the decisions and judgement calls made. The fourth thing was that Information Technology and integrated computer systems were at the heart of absolutely everything.

Anyone who has worked on major programmes and been there when the ultimate goal is achieved can relate to the palpable relief, job satisfaction, and euphoric pride shown by everyone on the SpaceX team when they delivered the two astronauts to the ISS and returned them safely to Earth. There’s nothing like the feeling of personal and professional satisfaction and elation that every team member, not just those in leadership positions, feels when a programme or project delivers. It’s a great feeling!

As he rose from the sofa, the Badger’s smartphone announced the arrival of an email  from British Gas. They had emailed the previous day saying that the Badger’s energy account had been migrated to a new system. The new email simply notified that an  energy statement was available online. With a sense of foreboding, the Badger logged into his energy account and found all was not well. SpaceX and British Gas may not be in comparable industries, but in ‘Return to Space’ the former cared that they got things right and delivered progress. Sadly, the opposite seems true for British Gas. Perhaps they need a dose of Elon Musk…

Priorities: Space commercialisation or mankind living in equilibrium with our planet?

The Badger’s always been open-minded, but on the back of the rah-rah about billionaire’s travelling to the edge of space, G.K Chesterton’s comment ‘Don’t be so open-minded that your brains fall out’ sprang to mind. It may be a step forwards for commercial space activities but with so many problems to solve here on earth, what’s the real benefit to mankind of billionaires puffing out their chests on becoming a space tourist? In fact, what’s the benefit to mankind of space tourism and the commercialisation of space, period?  If you have the luxury of unconstrained independent philosophical thought, then you get to the answer ‘not a lot’ quite quickly. After decades open-mindedly supporting space technology that helps us understand the universe and our home planet, the Badger finds himself questioning the wisdom of the modern ‘space race’ and space commercialisation.     

The modern space race is driven, in one form or another, by entities desiring ‘control and dominance’. There are dreams of harvesting valuable resources from other planets and of humans as a multi-planetary species, but it’s beginning to feel like mankind will have seriously declined on our home planet long before such dreams are realised in a way that brings benefit to the masses. It’s okay to have a vision and dreams, but when it was 1972 that the last person stood on the moon, and presence on the International Space Station since confirms that humans are biologically unsuited to being away from the home planet for lengthy periods, then there’s an obvious case to be made for focusing more on getting better equilibrium between mankind and our own planet than on space endeavours. Future astronauts might, apparently, be ‘gene-edited’ to overcome these biological issues, but that’s no benefit to mankind or our planet today when it really matters. (It could also mean that humans ultimately morph into being the intergalactic ‘plague of locust’ baddies that are often depicted in sci-fi series and movies. That’s not an attractive legacy for future generations).

Hats off to Messrs. Branson and Bezos for achieving their few minutes of weightlessness at the edge of space before returning safely to earth, but their money would be better spent helping mankind live in better equilibrium with the planet they briefly left.  After all, if your home starts to fall apart around you, most rational people will spend their money fixing it rather than buying an expensive luxury that does nothing to address the immediate problem.

With space debris already a growing problem, commercial satellite mega-constellations like Starlink already being considered as ‘pollutants’ of the night sky and disrupters of  astronomy, then perhaps it’s time to reprioritise away from space back to achieving  sustainable, equilibrium between mankind and it’s home planet. Perhaps the time has come not to be so open-minded about the vested interests of space commercialisation that our brains fall out.

Just because you can doesn’t mean you should…

A client and their supplier were at loggerheads. The former was withholding payment of a large milestone payment and the latter was threatening to turn off IT systems they ran for the client unless payment was made. The impasse had rumbled on for some time with both parties using expensive lawyers to pore over a poor contract. The client asked the Badger for a completely independent view on what to do. A poisoned chalice, especially when and it was quickly apparent that uncompromising and intransigent personalities on both sides were at the heart of the problem.

A solution was found by facilitating awareness on both sides that ‘just because you can doesn’t mean you should’. The client was withholding payment and supplier threatening to turn off IT because they could, regardless of any contract, but neither was a sensible or ethical thing to do. Both parties eventually realised this. Ultimately the client paid the money, the supplier withdrew threats to turn off IT, personalities on both sides were changed, and lawyers were redirected from a litigation path into improving the poor contract. Things slowly normalised and the Badger was ultimately thanked for reminding everyone that ‘just because you can doesn’t mean you should’ should never be forgotten when times are difficult.

The other day this phrase came to mind again when reading about a Russian company proposing to use microsatellites for celestial advertising in the night sky,  Estee Lauder making a product advert on the Internal Space Station (ISS), the winner of a proposed reality TV show getting a seat on the 2023 mission to the ISS, and  the impact on the night sky of Elon Musk’s SpaceX satellite constellation.  

Surely the commercialisation of Space illustrates not only human ingenuity and creativity, but also human stupidity! One of the joys of life is to step into a cloudless night and peer at the stars, just like our ancestors have done for thousands of years.  It’s doubtful that many of us really want that to be interfered with, but it seems inevitable that it will be.  We have a habit of slowly polluting or destroying whatever environment we touch – the ground, the sea, the air, and even the internet and social media – and the Badger finds it rather sad that the night sky is the next in line. 

Have our leaders considered ‘just because you can doesn’t mean you should’ with regard to Space commercialisation and our night sky? No chance. Why? Well there may be a clue in the final lines of Monty Python’s ‘The Galaxy Song’ from the 1983 film ‘The Meaning of Life’:

So remember, when you’re feeling very small and insecure,
How amazingly unlikely is your birth;
And pray that there’s intelligent life somewhere out in space,
‘Cause there’s bugger all down here on Earth!

Quite!  A sentiment from 37 years ago that still resonates strongly today…

From OneWeb to Hydrogen Fuel Cells…

When OneWeb, a company aiming to bring connectivity to everyone everywhere using an enormous constellation of Low-Earth Orbiting satellites, announced it was filing for bankruptcy the Badger was unsurprised. Why? Because it always felt that the business case was somewhat dubious. Investors now seem to have decided likewise and have ‘drawn stumps’ – to use a cricket metaphor. Others closer to the space industry than the Badger also seem unsurprised by what’s happened – see here for example. It’s sad, of course for everyone working for OneWeb, but in the end this a simple reminder that viable technology isn’t a guarantee of business success. Business is about the juxtaposition of risk and commercial gain, and stakeholders rarely flinch from hard business decisions when the two are out of kilter.

OneWeb cited market and financial turbulence related to the COVID-19 as a factor in failing to attract further funding. With this in his mind, the Badger found himself musing on the combination of technology and business in the post-pandemic world while he walked down the middle of an empty road getting exercise in line with the UK pandemic guidance. The complete absence of traffic on the normally hectic road plus a news item about an advance in materials significant for hydrogen fuel cells, triggered thoughts about whether we will see changes in investment priorities when it comes to vehicular technology after the pandemic is over.

Why would there be, you may ask? Because if you holistically look at, for example, the Royal Society’s briefing on options for producing low-carbon hydrogen at scale, real world experience of using electric and hydrogen fuelled vehicles (e.g. see here), and the relatively slow take up of electric vehicles powered by batteries, then you realise this kind of ‘material’ breakthrough should create an even more enticing investment and business opportunity for vehicle manufacturers and fossil fuel companies (who produce hydrogen) alike. The Badger, whose early roots were in materials technology, senses that the real scientific and engineering advances that could flow from the news item will significantly boost the business case for adopting hydrogen fuel cells for transportation and, accordingly, we will see business investment in this arena rise significantly in the coming years.

By the time the Badger had finished walking down the middle of the road, he had decided that everyone is more likely to be driving cars powered by a hydrogen fuel cell by the end of the decade than to have embraced driverless cars on public roads. (Tomorrow’s exercise might, of course, modify this conclusion!) As OneWeb shows, technology doesn’t mean business success, but any company that has bet the farm on the dominance of battery-powered vehicles should watch out, because hydrogen fuel cells are definitely coming along to eat your lunch…

Time for ‘manned’ Space missions to be curtailed?

It’s 30 years since the ‘Pale Blue Dot’ picture of Earth taken by Voyager 1 as it left our solar system. When reading about it, see here and here, the Badger was struck by the obvious fragility of our existence on a planet that’s barely a speck of dust in the Universe!

The picture caused the Badger to if our Space ambitions align with the interests of human life and our planet. The oversight of projects involving very talented ‘Space techies’ developing software for interplanetary missions, earth observation, and satellite control featured many times during the Badger’s career, and it’s pictures like the ‘Pale Blue Dot’ that are good reminders to stay realistic about ‘Space – the final frontier’. It’s right that we should have ambitions, dreams, and scientific knowledge pertinent to Space, but it’s also right to regularly wonder if we have our priorities right. This decade sees US astronauts return to the Moon and a raft of other missions led by different countries and commercial organisations. There’s a view that Space is the new ‘Wild West’ and that ‘Space has shifted from a place purely to ‘go’ to a place to do business’. Hard to disagree! The global Space market will double to ~£400 billion by 2030, so this decade could see Space really become the ‘Wild West’ given it’s no longer the preserve of just governmental agencies but of private companies jockeying for position and commercial advantage as well.

Staring at the ‘Pale Blue Dot’, the Badger cogitated on our Space priorities given the importance of preserving life and our speck of dust in the Universe. After doing some reading, perusing recent items like those here, here, and here, and some research on how Space impacts our bodies, the Badger quickly formed an opinion. Unmanned Space exploration makes sense and helps the scientific and engineering advancement needed to benefit human life and our planet, but manned Space exploration is an expensive holy grail because biologically and psychologically we are designed for Earth and do not adapt well to extended periods in Space. What’s the point in putting humans in Space at vast expense when robots are better suited to the hostile environment? As the video here concludes, using robots will tell us more about our planet and the solar system, whereas using astronauts tells will tell us mostly about ourselves.

Has the time come for man to curtail manned Space exploration and use the money for urgent human life and on-Earth planet sustainability initiatives instead? The Badger thinks ‘probably’. Just an opinion…you should have one too! Surely The sustainability of humans on our ‘Pale Blue Dot’ is much more important to us, our children, and our grandchildren than man in Space will ever be. After all, a Wild West in Space in the coming years is no use to anyone if we, or our speck of dust, disappear.