The Law of Unintended Consequences…

If you’ve a couple of minutes spare then read the item here. It was published in 2013 and what’s striking is that the exact same words could be used if it had been written today! A 2010 item, ‘Technology: The law of unintended consequences, by the same author also stands the test of time. Reading both has caused the Badger to muse on unintended consequences, especially those that have emerged from the digital and online world over the last few decades.

The ‘Law of Unintended Consequences’ is real and is, in essence, quite simple. It declares that every action by a person, company, or government can have positive or negative consequences that are unforeseen. An amusing manifestation of the law in action happened in 2016 when a UK Government agency conducted an online poll for the public to name the agency’s latest polar research ship. The public’s choice, Boaty McBoatface, wasn’t the kind of name the agency anticipated!

One characteristic of unintended consequences is that they tend to emerge over a long period. The internet and social media illustrate this neatly. Both have changed the behaviour of people (especially the young), companies, and governments, and both have challenged safety, security, and privacy like never before. Indeed, the Australian government’s recent decision to ban those under 16 years old from social media demonstrates just how long it’s taken to address some of social media’s unintended consequences since its advent a couple of decades ago.

During his IT career, the Badger participated in delivering the many benefits of digital and online technology to society, but now, more mindful of unintended consequences, he wonders if a future dominated by virtuality, AI, and colossal tech corporations is a good thing for his grandson’s generation. After all, the online and digital world is not where real, biological, life takes place, and there’s more to life than being a slave to our devices.

The ‘Law of Unintended Consequences’ can never be ignored. Although a professional and disciplined approach to progress always reduces the scope for unintended consequences, the fact is these will happen. This means, for example, that there’ll be unintended consequences from the likes of AI, driverless vehicles, and robots at home, and that, in practice, it will take years for these unintended consequences to emerge properly. But emerge they will!

Looking back over recent decades, it’s clear that digital and online technology has delivered benefits. It’s also clear that it’s brought complication, downsides, and unintended consequences to the lives of people in all age groups. The Badger’s concluded that we need a law that captures the relationship between progress, unintended consequences, and real life. So, here’s Badger’s Law: ‘Progress always produces unintended consequences that complicate and compromise the real life of people’. Gosh, it’s astonishing where articles penned over a decade ago can take your thoughts…

‘The Magic Roundabout’ and the tech industry…

The  Magic Roundabout was a beloved children’s programme on UK television between 1965 and 1977. It was produced using stop-motion animation, and it achieved cult status with children and adults alike. Its human characters were Florence, a young girl, and Mr Rusty, the elderly operator of the roundabout. The other main characters were Zebedee the talking jack-in-the box with magical powers, Brian the snail, Ermintrude the cow, and Dylan the hippy-like, guitar-playing, dopey rabbit! It was essential tea-time viewing at the time, and it’s use of stop-motion animation was groundbreaking.

Children’s television programmes, and the technology creating them, have changed vastly since the last episode aired in 1977, and the Badger recently found himself unexpectedly engaged in a conversation comparing ‘The Magic Roundabout’ with today’s tech/IT industry! The conversation happened while visiting a local shop that buys and sells vintage vinyl music records. It’s a lively, friendly establishment, where browsing is encouraged while the owner plays vintage records on turntables behind the till. The Badger’s visit was ostensibly to enquire if any of the vinyl he still has from his youth is of interest to collectors. Before asking, the Badger browsed the shops offerings and a disc from 1975, ‘Funky Moped’ by Jasper Carrot with ‘Magic Roundabout’ on the B-side, caught his eye. It was hard to supress a grin!

Enquiring about the Badger’s own vintage records ultimately led to two things. Firstly, a realisation that some of them are rare and have notable value. One, for example, is his mono Rolling Stones ‘Let it Bleed’ LP in pristine original condition with its original poster. Secondly, it started a discussion with the shop’s owner that ended up not only comparing ‘The Magic Roundabout’ with the tech industry, but also agreeing that Jasper Carrot’s irreverent Magic Roundabout’ routine was, let’s say, of its time!   

It felt surreal comparing ‘The Magic Roundabout’ with the tech industry in a vintage record shop, especially when more similarities emerged than expected. The television programme, for example, featured diverse characters with unique traits and perspectives, and it’s whimsical scripts led to surprising outcomes. The tech industry also features diverse characters with unique traits, skills, and perspectives, and the industry produces surprising outcomes. Both employ advanced techniques embodying creativity, innovation, adaptability, and cross-generation interconnectedness. Both also evoke nostalgia. Who, for example, doesn’t fondly recall their early tech devices and their first forays accessing the internet?

The Badger eventually left the shop reminded that a face-to-face conversation with another person is always an interesting and thought-provoking experience, regardless of what you talk about. Face-to-face conversations are something we should all do more of in today’s world. Walking home, the Badger had the phrase ‘Boing, said Zebedee’ rattling in his head. Hmm, perhaps ‘Boing, said Elon’ might be more apt for today’s world…

Is social media the new tobacco?

The UK’s in the throes of a General Election and, whether we like it or not, social media is an important part of campaigning for politicians, political parties, and any person or organisation wanting to influence the outcome. Social media is the modern billboard. The Badger’s always been cautious about social media, and he engages with it in moderation. Why? Because his IT career spanned the time from its origin through to its evolution into being dominated by the global, revenue and profit dominated goliaths we have today.  He’s learned that it’s a minefield for the unwary, and perilous for those vulnerable to the tsunami of memes, misinformation, disinformation, sales and marketing spin, scams and bile that is regularly delivered. Social media is, of course, here to stay. The Badger, however, overcame any fear of missing out (FOMO) regarding its content many years ago. He thus ignores any content that is election related.

Aside from the UK election, something relevant to social media caught the Badger’s attention this week. It was the USA’s Surgeon General’s call for  tobacco-style warnings on the hazards of using social media. This struck a chord because the Badger’s quietly thought for some time that social media is the new tobacco! The Badger hasn’t lost his mind because, as they say, ‘there’s method to the madness’.

Tobacco’s been with us for centuries, see here.  Cigarettes evolved in the 1830s, and smoking was a norm for adults across UK society in the 1920s, driven ostensibly by cigarettes being included in First World War military rations and heavy advertising by tobacco companies. Smoking continued to grow, with the highest level for men recorded as 82% in1948. Tobacco companies, of course, grew fast, and became extremely rich and powerful. The health issues associated with tobacco were known long before the 1950s when the evidence of the impact of smoking on public health became incontrovertible. Since then, steps have been taken to eliminate smoking. The tobacco companies have fought to protect their revenues, and tobacco-related legislation only really started changing significantly in the early 2000s.

Doesn’t this progression of a product, mass marketing, widespread public adoption as a norm, the growth of wealthy and powerful companies protecting their product at all costs, eventual public realisation of the product’s damage to society and individual health, followed by long overdue corrective action resonate with what’s happening with social media? The Badger thinks it does. For tobacco, the progression has taken a century or more, but for social media it’s happening over just a few decades. The Badger senses that the Surgeon General’s call for tobacco style warnings has its place, but more needs to be done faster or society and individual health will be in an even bigger pickle at the end of this decade. Just a thought…

History suggests that a future generation will face a ‘Digital Crisis’…

Spanish philosopher George Santayana is credited with saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it’, and Karl Marx remarked that ‘History repeats itself first as a tragedy, and then as a farce’. These came to mind while quietly musing on a future which is in the hands of younger generations who’ve grown up with global communication, the internet, social media, and online services as a norm. It’s sobering to be reminded that in just a few decades, digital technology and IT has transformed life faster than at any time in human history. AI adds to the unabated momentum of tech-driven change. But here’s the thing. History shows that many things that have a transformational impact on society have serious consequences that only become fully apparent decades later, creating a crisis for society that a future generation is forced to address. History thus implies that a future generation will have to deal with a crisis caused by the digital revolution.

Bold thinking? Maybe, but consider this. History shows that motor vehicles revolutionised transportation. It’s only in recent decades, however, that society has realised, and started addressing, the true impact of motor vehicles on public health and the planet. History also shows that the use of fossil fuels (particularly coal) during the Industrial Revolution transformed the world. Our dependence on them since, however, has impacted the climate and sustainability of life forcing society into corrective action, but only in recent decades. Similarly, plastic – a material that’s made the modern world possible – has gone from being a wonder substance a century ago to being reviled as an environmental scourge today. It therefore seems perfectly feasible that history will repeat itself with regard to the digital revolution we are living through.

Falling happiness in younger generations (see here, for example) and a tense interview with Elon Musk , who remarked that ‘moderation is a propaganda word for censorship’, illustrate that history may well repeat itself regarding social media. Social media platforms have revolutionised information sharing over two decades, but amplifying misinformation, disinformation, bullying, mental health issues, and eroding personal privacy in the process. They are commercial enterprises bound by the law, but they set their own rules and guidelines for content and its moderation. When a US Surgeon General says allowing young people to use social media is like giving them medicine not proven to be safe, and that it’s insane that governments have failed to adequately regulate them, then society has a problem regardless of Mr Musk’s dislike of challenging scrutiny. History means that society today is having to face up to a ‘Climate Crisis’. Taking note of history is always wise, which is why it’s not outlandish to think that a future generation will face and need to address some kind of existential ‘Digital Crisis’ …  

Systems failure? keep calm and carry on…

Fred (not his real name), an 80-year-old retired civil servant, walks past every morning on his way to the local supermarket for a newspaper. He does this regardless of the weather. Fred walks slower on his way back because the round trip to the supermarket is the limit of what he can manage in one go. On his return leg, therefore, Fred and the Badger often chat if the opportunity arises. Fred has a passion for modern history, current affairs, financial markets, and public service, and while he may be slowing up physically, his mind remains sharp, informed, and impressively analytical. Our conversations are always enjoyable and enlightening.

On Sunday, we had one such chat. Fred knows the Badger’s background is in IT and so he asked about the previous day’s delivery order and contactless payment problems at a well-known UK supermarket chain. ‘In IT there’s always going to be unexpected failures due to software defects, hardware and system problems, human error,  or any combination of the three’, the Badger answered benignly. ‘Didn’t affect me; a good old-fashioned visit to the supermarket and cash will always be my preference’, Fred responded, adding that it didn’t reflect well on the state of society when shrill hysteria and blame floods social media and the news whenever there’s an outage of online services. Fred thinks people take online services for granted and have lost the ‘keep calm and carry on’ spirit that’s normally a strength of the British character! Whether you agree or not, it’s an understandable point of view.

The conversation moved on when Fred mentioned that he’d been reading books about Mr Putin, cyber security, and artificial intelligence. He reckons humanity’s future is bleak, not because of technology, AI, or cyber warfare, but because younger digital-native generations are already slaves to algorithms, aren’t interested in facts and share comments before thinking, have a first response to everything which is a search for blame, and are too willingly ‘followers of the herd’! Again, it’s an understandable point of view. Fred added that Mr Putin doesn’t really need sophisticated cyber tools or AI. He just needs his supporters in key IT roles in some supermarkets, banks, fulfilment and distribution companies, energy suppliers, and network providers to coordinate a simultaneous ‘human error’ moment when making changes to systems! Fred thinks this would cause national mayhem.

Fred’s an interesting guy whose views are shaped by his eight decades of life and what he sees, hears, and reads on a daily basis. Our conversation reminded the Badger that he learned early in his IT career that systems will fail, often in unexpected ways, at an inconvenient time, and disruptively. When they do, it’s important for everyone to ‘keep calm and carry on’. Sadly, calm, patience, and individual resilience seems to be in increasingly short supply in our digital-dominated world…

Describe the internet without refering to technology using a maximum of 10 words…

What do you do after a long ramble through park land with large herds of free-roaming deer when the weather is rainy, chilly, and blustery? Dry off and warm up in a café with a hot drink and something to eat. That’s exactly what the Badger and his wife did at the end of a bracing wander around Petworth Park. The café, in Petworth House  which sits magnificently at one end of the park, was busy but we found a table next to a small group of millennial couples who had hiked cross-country from Midhurst seven miles away. They were refuelling with tea, sandwiches, and hot soup in readiness for the trek back. Their lively conversation wasn’t about their hike or their return journey, but about the internet and AI! Some of the group, the Badger sensed, clearly had a background in IT. As they finished and rose to leave, one commented cheerily to another that ‘There should be a simple way of describing the internet that doesn’t use jargon or refer to technology’. After the group left, the Badger’s wife challenged him to do just that using a maximum of ten words!

Thoughts bubbled in the Badger’s brain for the rest of the day, and later that evening he told his wife that he’d converged on a description for the internet that met the challenge. She merely shrugged her shoulders disinterestedly and continued surfing the internet on her smartphone. Undeterred, the Badger announced that the internet is ‘All human interactions, from good to evil, sped up’. She simply nodded and told the Badger to use it for his blog, and that’s exactly what he’s done!

There are probably many valid and better alternatives, but the Badger thinks these words powerfully describe the internet, that nebulous entity which not only invisibly connects people, places, information, stories, beliefs, knowledge, and ideas globally, but also entertains us, sparks our curiosity, and mirrors our aspirations, flaws, and contradictions. The words also encapsulate the fact that all the good and bad attributes of humanity waltz together on the internet at a speed humankind has never encountered before. The fight between good and evil for domination is thus unrelenting, perpetual, and affected only by human ingenuity. Sometimes good dominates and other times evil does, which is why we should be wary, cautious, and conscious of safety, security, and privacy when engaging in the virtual world where the yin-yang of modern life is played out.

The Badger’s wife has now suggested a new challenge – to describe AI in ‘a simple way that doesn’t use jargon or refer to technology’ using a maximum of ten words. The Badger’s first thought was to describe AI using the same words for the internet. His second thought? To avoid challenges spawned when your spouse overhears something in the conversation of strangers!

A world without Google…

A feature entitled Where would we be without Google’ appeared on the IET (Institution of Engineering and Technology) website last week. It’s an insightful, entertaining article that takes a wry look at how Google (or more properly Alphabet) has become part of today’s critical infrastructure and why we must let it stay that way. The Badger nodded in agreement when reading the author’s words that the world created by Google should more accurately be described as the world that we – consumers, society, and legislators – have allowed Google to create. The Badger also sympathises with the feature’s conclusion, that for the sake of humanity Google must never be allowed to stop because  nobody knows what might happen if somebody switched its services off. The consequences would be awful in ways that we haven’t envisaged.

Since every facet of personal, public, and business life involves risk, believing that Google could never be ‘switched off’ seems foolish, especially when big tech wields more power than governments, and global instability is on the rise. Switching Google off would be a digital earthquake that shakes the very heart of today’s connected world. Its likelihood may be low, but it’s clearly an identifiable risk and so it’s worth thinking about the impact if it were to happen? Do you know what the consequences would be? Do you know what you would do if you woke up one morning and Google wasn’t there? Probably not, because it’s doubtful that most people have this eventuality on their personal radar. To tickle your thoughts, therefore, here’s a brief sense of the impact if Google was ‘switched off’.

Our go-to source for answers, information, translation, scholarly articles, and academic papers (Google Search, Translate, Scholar) would vanish. A billion or more email inboxes, virtual meetings, and chats would fall silent (Gmail, Google Meet,  Hangouts). Travellers and delivery drivers would become disoriented and wander aimlessly (Google Maps). Online collaborative work would grind to a halt and documents, spreadsheets, presentations, and critical business files would disappear (Google Drive, Docs, Sheets, Slides). Similarly, YouTube creators and viewers would lose their stage and access to content, smart homes would lose their brains, and thermostats, house cameras, and doorbells would lose connectivity. Marketeers and advertisers would find their strategies undermined, and businesses using Google Cloud would be disrupted. Your Android phone would need a new operating system. Just imagine the turmoil as you and a billion others try to adjust at the same time!

It’s unthinkable that Google would ever be switched off, you say. Maybe, but thinking about the unthinkable is at the heart of good risk management. What can we do to minimise the impact on ourselves? Well, the saying  ‘don’t have all your eggs in one basket’ comes to mind. It’s as relevant today as it was before big tech dominated the world…

Protecting your privacy…

The arrival of a scam email, a television programme on Banking Scams, scurrilous AI generated images of Taylor Swift, news of a fake robocall using President Biden’s voice, and the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre’s warning that the global ransomware threat will rise with AI, made the Badger think about protecting privacy this week.

The following facts underpinned his musing. LinkedIn, Facebook, X (Twitter), Instagram, Snapchat, and TikTok were launched in 2003, 2004, 2006, 2010, 2011, and 2016, respectively. Amazon was founded in 1994, Netflix in 1997, Google in 1998, Spotify in 2006, and WhatsApp in 2009. The first smartphone with internet connectivity arrived in 2000 when life was very different, as neatly illustrated here. Over barely 30 years, tech and these companies have changed the dynamics of daily life, and what constitutes personal privacy, for everyone. These companies, fledglings 25 years ago but now more powerful than many countries, harvest, hold, and use vast swathes of our personal data. What constitutes privacy for an individual has thus inevitably changed, and, the Badger feels, not for the better compared with 25 years ago. What other conclusion could you make when huge data breaches and scandals like Cambridge Analytica expose individuals to security threats and privacy risk like never before? And along comes AI making the risk to individuals much, much worse!

Everything done online today is tracked and used for some purpose. If you use an internet-connected personal device then the world’s plumbing knows where you are and what you’re doing. When it comes to privacy, therefore, the old saying ‘an Englishman’s home is his castle’ was much more relevant 30 years ago than it is today. With vast swathes of our personal data held online it’s hardly surprising that bad actors want to get their hands on it for nefarious purposes. As Channel 5’s  ‘Banking Scams; Don’t get caught out’ programme recently highlighted, just a small amount of your personal data in the wrong hands can make your life a misery. AI just adds another dimension to the potential scale of that misery.

With online interactions a norm of modern life and AI manipulation of images, video, and speech becoming more widespread, the Badger wondered if there’s something other than good cyber security practices that anyone can do to bolster their personal privacy. Well, there is. Don’t post photos, videos, or voice recordings of yourself on social media platforms! Your face, your body, and your voice are part of your real identity, so why make them easy pickings for anyone of a wicked disposition? The Badger’s lost the plot, you may think, but his fundamental point is this. Think about your privacy the next time you post photos, video, or voice recordings on a social media platform. After all, the responsibility for protecting your privacy fundamentally rests with you…  

Fun using Microsoft Copilot (Bing Chat with GPT-4)…

The 2024 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting at Davos ended last week.  It’s where business, government, and civil society leaders meet to discuss global issues, share ideas, and collaborate to find solutions – according to the PR machinery. The Badger’s always rather sceptical about Davos as it seems to have similarities with the annual senior leadership/management conferences that big corporations hold. The Badger attended many such corporate shindigs during his career, but he always returned a little unconvinced that they really made a difference. The conferences had themes, presentations, speeches, and breakout workshops involving attendees, but, in reality, the most important topics were addressed quietly and privately by a small group of corporate stakeholders behind closed doors. Davos, an event for powerful and wealthy elites with enormous egos, appears little different.

One of this year’s Davos themes was ‘AI as a Driving Force for the Economy and Society.’ The mischievous Badger thus asked Microsoft Copilot (Bing Chat with GPT-4) the question ‘Does Davos actually make any difference?’ The 150-word answer, mostly contextual fluff, culminated in ‘The effectiveness of the meeting is subjective and depends on the perspective of the attendees and the outcomes of the discussions’. Hmm, this is surely validation of the Badger’s scepticism! He then asked, ‘Is AI more hype than substance?’ Copilot’s answer ended with ‘While there is certainly a lot of hype surrounding AI, it is clear that there is also a lot of substance to the technology. AI has the potential to transform many industries and change the way we live our lives. However, it is important to approach the technology with a critical eye and to be aware of the potential risks and challenges associated with its use.’ The Badger smiled; it was the type of benign answer he’d expected.

The Badger’s next two questions were ‘Will AI replace lawyers?’ and ‘Will AI replace software engineers?’, ostensibly because both professional groups are crucial to the functioning of the world today and also relevant to Davos’s ‘AI as a Driving Force for the Economy and Society’ theme. In both cases Copilot answered that AI will likely augment their work making them more efficient and effective, rather than replacing them. Increased efficiency and effectiveness implies the need for fewer people in these professions, but time will tell whether this is the case.

After some fun asking more questions, the Badger sat back and considered again whether Davos makes any difference to life for the vast majority of the global population. No, it doesn’t, because it’s just a talking shop for billionaires and elites and has no executive power. It’s the constant and speedy advance of diverse technology, and AI in particular, that makes the difference for most of us. Davos is, therefore, not the dog that wags the technology tail changing our lives, it’s the other way around…

The biggest challenge of 2024 and beyond…

This year, 2024, will bring many challenges of one kind or another. Every new year, of course, contains challenges, some which already feature in our awareness, and some which don’t because they tend to emerge from leftfield in due course. The online world, the traditional press, and broadcast media provide plenty of opinion on forthcoming challenges at this time of year, but they tend to highlight things that are already the larger blips on our awareness radar. To start the year off, therefore, the Badger set himself a personal challenge, namely, to decide on the world’s biggest challenge for 2024 and beyond, one that deserves to be a much bigger blip on everyone’s  radar.

The following reality provided the backdrop for the Badger’s deliberations:

  • Life today is dominated by digital technology, global connectivity, the internet, automation, and an addiction to smartphones whose applications provide immediacy of information, anytime, anyplace, for ~75% of the world’s population.
  • Digital evolution continues apace, AI is advancing rapidly and cannot be ignored, international conflict is on the rise, politics is increasingly polarised, and the world order is under considerable strain.
  • Unforeseen natural, humanitarian, financial, and economic crises, are an inevitability.

A front runner for the biggest challenge of 2024 and beyond emerged quickly in the Badger’s thoughts, ostensibly because it had already been bubbling in his mind for months. He quickly concluded that this front runner was indeed the world’s biggest challenge. So, what is it? Put simply, it’s to stem the rise of distrust.

Trust is a fundamental component of cooperation, relationships of all kinds, business, service, and interactions between social groups and different cultures. Society is on a slippery slope to failure without it. Unfortunately, research over the last decade or so shows that our levels of distrust have been progressively rising. Distrust in politicians, governments, corporates, and their leaders continues to rise. Similarly, distrust of the internet and social media continues to grow as we all become more aware of data breaches, fake and weaponised news, misinformation, disinformation, online safety, security and privacy issues, swindles, and cyber-crime. AI seems unlikely to change the trend. The Badger thus feels that stemming the rise of distrust  warrants being the world’s greatest challenge if we want a better society for our children and grandchildren.

Addressing this challenge is not easy, but change starts when lots of people make small adjustments to their behaviour. This year the Badger has resolved to stem his rising distrust of  ‘pushed’ online content that has become the norm in our 24×7 online world. He’s breaking the mould, taking back control, and engaging with it differently and more selectively in 2024. New Year resolutions, of course, have a habit of falling by the wayside. It’s early days, but so far so good…