2025 – A year of ‘Strain and Change’…

The festive season is over, and most people are once again embroiled in the routine of normal life. Many start the year mentally refreshed, physically rested, and game for the next challenge, but some do not. And there’s the rub, to use an idiom from Shakespeare, because those starting the year unprepared for a challenge will surely find this year difficult. Why’s that, especially when every year presents challenges that must be dealt with? Well, the omens for 2025 suggest it’s going to be a particularly testing one across a broad range of fronts. As a relative put it over the holiday period, the world order’s changing fast, there’s disgruntlement with political leaders, AI and disruptive advances in digital tech driven by huge corporations continue unabated, retrenchment from the globalisation that’s been a norm for years  is underway, and so ‘Strain and Change’ will be everywhere in 2025.   Those stepping back into life’s rhythms expecting the status quo and unprepared for challenges are thus likely in for a rude awakening.

With this in mind, the Badger found himself chuckling as he read what the BBC’s Tomorrow’s World TV programme predicted in 1995 for 2025. When Professor Stephen Hawking told that programme that ‘Some of these changes are very exciting, and some are alarming. The one thing we can be sure of is that it will be very different, and probably not what we expect’, little did he (or the Badger) know that the Badger’s last post for 2024 would echo the same sentiment! The Badger started wondering what advice Professor Hawking, who produced many pearls of wisdom, might have given us at the start of a year of ‘Change and Strain’. After a little research, the Badger decided he would simply concatenate two of his memorable pearls of wisdom to say:

It is very important for young people to keep their sense of wonder and keep asking why. It’s a crazy world out there. Be curious. However difficult life may seem, there is always something you can do and succeed at’.

This seems apt in many ways, but especially for today’s always on, social media dominated, digital world where Hawking’s sentiment can be expressed as  ‘Don’t take anything you read, watch, or hear at face value. Be curious, ask questions, and always believe that you can take action to better your situation’. The Badger thinks that ‘Strain and Change’ is the drumbeat of 2025 technologically, nationally, geopolitically, commercially, and economically. Accordingly, whatever challenges lay ahead, they must be faced with the mindset embodied in Professor Hawking’s concatenated words above. As for the Badger? Well, he’s motivated, refreshed, and well prepared. The only status quo he’s anticipating in 2025 is the continuation of timeless, good, vintage music of which Living on an Island is a good example…

Looking forward…

Do you know exactly what you were doing at a specific time on Christmas Eve 45 years ago? Regardless of your age, it’s unlikely that you do! But the Badger does. He and his brothers were helping their father complete deliveries so that he could get home at a reasonable time on Christmas Eve. We’d started at 3am, and on completing the last delivery in the middle of the afternoon we were exhausted! The Badger remembers the time, location, the weather, and what we were wearing for this last delivery because one of his brothers had a 35mm camera with him and asked a passerby to take a photo of us in front of the delivery vehicle. That photo is date and time-stamped and is cherished by the Badger and his brothers.

What’s this got to do with ‘looking forward’? Well, the Badger’s father, who’s no longer with us, never made predictions about the year ahead. Being orphaned while an evacuee from London during the Second World War meant he dealt with life one day at a time. The unpredictability of the future world and his personal circumstances made not looking beyond tomorrow routine. He joined the Army as soon as he was old enough to, as he put it, ‘get an education, some semblance of  structure and family, and to establish good life skills and standards’. He thrived, served in Germany and the Middle East, and only left the service to marry.

The Badger and his brothers frequently heard mantras rooted in his Army days and childhood experiences while growing up. Advice like ‘there’s no such thing as can’t, try’, ‘if you’re knocked back, pull yourself together and start again’, and ‘learn from your mistakes but don’t dwell on the past, look forward to the future’ were heard frequently. His favourites were ‘remember, if it looks wrong, feels wrong, smells wrong, or sounds wrong, then it’s wrong’, if something untoward happens don’t ignore it, deal with it’, and ‘look forward,  because you can’t change the past’. He often said he never made predictions about the future because he’d learned that the future never turned out the way anyone expected. The Badger has thus resisted the temptation to express any opinion about what 2025 will hold. While ‘look forward, because you can’t change the past’ continues to be a key ethos, his father was right – the future will almost certainly turn out to be different to what’s anticipated!

Thank you for reading the Badger’s Blog during 2024,  and best wishes for Christmas and the New Year. The Badger and his brothers will be toasting those of the pre-internet/tech generation who are no longer with us because they provided a drumbeat of sound advice and wisdom that’s become much diluted in today’s world. Merry Christmas!

The NHS doesn’t engage or communicate with patients on waiting lists at all…

Statistics show that >80% of the UK population engage in online shopping, an impressive number given Amazon et al only launched in the 1990s. The Badger uses Amazon, amongst others, because the ‘customer journey’ from choosing goods, payment, through to and including delivery, is straightforward, reliable, and provided with  informative tracking information about the journey of the goods. This ‘customer journey’ is founded on solid, integrated IT, designed to engage and communicate with the customer throughout the whole process. Good, proactive, interaction with customers is a norm in today’s online world, which means that any public facing service that doesn’t have it sticks out like a sore thumb!

Last week the Badger visited a neighbour, a statistician long retired from the UK Civil Service,  who’d recently had a fall in the street. Their wife invited the Badger round for coffee and a chat to lift her husband’s spirits. The coffee was good, the conversation lively, and her husband’s spirits were indeed lifted! Given their Civil Service career, government and the NHS inevitably came up in our conversation. At one point the Badger laughed when the statistician asserted that ‘All governments are somewhere on the incompetency spectrum’. They were forthright about the NHS too, saying ‘Unlike Amazon with its customers, the NHS doesn’t engage and communicate with patients on waiting lists at all’.

What triggered this remark is the fact that a NHS hospital consultant told them a year ago not only that they needed an operation, but also that its clinical priority meant it would happen within 2 to 3 months. After 3 months had elapsed with no communication from the hospital, the statistician called to enquire what was happening only to be told they were on the waiting list and would hear something soon. After another 3  months of no contact, they enquired again and got the same response. A year has now passed and there’s been no proactive communication from the hospital at all. Understandably, their trust in the NHS has almost completely evaporated. It wasn’t surprising, therefore, that we decided during our conversation that government should get Amazon to implement proper, ‘customer journey’-like,  21st century ‘patient journey’ engagement, IT, and waiting list communication practices for the NHS. Radical, wacky? May be, but the status quo isn’t working. Not proactively communicating with patients who’ve been on waiting lists for months sticks out like a sore thumb as being behind the times and is plain wrong!

The IT for the online shopping ‘customer journey’ is well established, so surely its principles and mechanisms can be adapted to proactively keep patients informed during their ‘patient journey’? The government’s consulting about NHS changes but can it cut through NHS vested interests? It has to, because there’s a mountain of waiting list patients who’ve already lost confidence that this complex 20th century supertanker will ever be truly fit for the 21st century…

Looking into the eyes of…a politician…

Most people in the UK workforce never get to look deeply into the eyes of a government minister. The Badger, however, first did just that some decades ago. The Secretary of State for Trade and Industry at the time visited one of the Badger’s employer’s offices for the type of ‘understanding what we do’ session that sometimes produce snippets on television news. At the time, the Badger was leading his company’s development of a key IT system at the heart of an important major programme within this minister’s remit. The day before the visit, the Badger’s boss told him to attend in case they wanted to discuss progress with the programme. The timing was inconvenient because the IT system was just a few days into a crucial testing activity, but attending was obviously the right thing to do.

The Badger duly arrived early the next morning at the office hosting the visit. The minister and their entourage arrived mid-morning, slightly later than expected, and the company CEO took them on a tour of the building and a number of demonstrations  prepared by local project teams. As they were shown around, the minister hardly smiled. They appeared distant and disinterested, and they spent more time talking to individuals in their entourage than those they were meeting. As the tour concluded, the CEO beckoned the Badger over and introduced him to the Secretary of State as the person delivering the key IT system at the heart of their programme. The Secretary of State shook the Badger’s hand, and while doing so, they locked eyes with the Badger’s and coldly asked ‘Will the system be delivered on time?’ without blinking. ‘Yes’, the Badger answered truthfully. They instantly turned away and asked the CEO about the arrangements for lunch! Immediately after this fleeting interaction, the Badger reflected on what he’d sensed from looking into the eyes of this politician.

Eyes are often called the ‘windows to a person’s soul’. If that’s the case, then this politician had no soul! There had been no flicker of interest, just a constancy of optical contact that was cold, uncomfortable, intimidating, and empty. While the Badger knew that politicians, like many business leaders, are often trained to maintain a certain demeanour, he concluded, right or wrong, that this individual’s personal attributes were unattractive and distrustful because they really didn’t have a soul!

Over the years since, the Badger’s often looked deeply into the eyes of politicians and business leaders. He’s come to realise that some do indeed have a soul, because their eyes broadcast confidence, competence, interest, inspiration, and trust. He’s observed that those with such attributes tend to have lengthy, successful, leadership careers, but those that don’t have tended to falter. So, never avoid direct eye contact with politicians and leaders because, as Al Pacino said in the movie Scarface, ‘The eyes, Chico, never lie’

The human dimension, not tech, underpins crisis management…

Sixty-one years ago, the Cuban Missile Crisis brought the world to the brink of global nuclear war. Much has changed since that time in 1962, but the scope for catastrophic miscalculation in the corridors of power remains as great today as it was then. Why? Because at the heart of any crisis are people with power, strong personalities, egos, opinions, and different motivations. Having had experience managing crises, the Badger’s interest was thus piqued recently when a friend recommended the film Thirteen Days about the Cuban crisis. It’s based on two books, one of which was written by the US Attorney General in 1962 (Robert F Kennedy), and it dramatizes the US political leadership’s perspective of events.

The Badger watched the film and was struck primarily by two things. The first was that the technology in use during the 1962 crisis was ‘medieval’ compared with what we take for granted today. The film conveys well the fact that the Cuban crisis happened long before the internet, social media, personal computers, smart phones, video calls, digital photography, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and satellite constellations. Landline telephones, switchboard operators, teletypes, paper letters, memos and instructions, and non-digital intelligence photographs from U2 planes provided the  White House drumbeat for managing the crisis in 1962. Today’s technology means the drumbeat is different, computers dominate, information flows and communications are faster, and intelligence comes more rapidly from  open sources as well as from military capabilities etc. (Intriguingly, satellites and UAVs have yet to replace U2 spy planes; these are still in use and not scheduled to retire until 2026.)

The second thing was the human dynamics, the interactions  between political and military leaders, the diversity of advice on dealing with the threat, and the enormous potential ramifications of the decisions that rested on the shoulders of those present. Having been involved in crises in the commercial world, these human dynamics struck a particular chord, even allowing for some dramatic licence. Today, this same human dimension will still be happening as world leaders grapple with various crises. It’s worth noting that the US President, Secretary for Defence, Attorney General, and others, were positively youthful (late thirties to mid-forties) at the time of the Cuban crisis. Today those holding such posts are beyond pension age.

Commenting on this potentially ageist observation, the Badger’s wife asserted that in a democratic society it’s voters who have the fundamental, innate, responsibility to elect leaders with the rationality, capability, character, and vigour needed to make good judgements under intense pressure. It’s a point worth remembering perhaps, because although digital technology has come to dominate every facet of life since the Cuban crisis, it can’t provide any insight into what’s going on in the minds of those who have to make the ultimate judgements and decisions that could affect us all. At least not yet…

Marmite, IT systems…and the NHS at 75

Two young mums and their toddlers were chatting in front of the shelves holding Marmite at the local supermarket. As the Badger politely reached between them for a jar, one mum grumbled ‘Yuk. You shouldn’t eat that stuff; it’s horrible’, and the other added tartly that ‘Supermarkets shouldn’t be allowed to sell it’. Supressing an urge to argue, the Badger saw the seriousness on their faces, took a jar, and moved on. If people think supermarkets should be barred from selling Marmite, then there’s no hope for society!

While cogitating on the way home, the Badger concluded that Marmite and the UK’s National Health Service (NHS) have something in common – the ability to divide and polarise opinions. How did the NHS come into this? Well, the seed was sown in the Badger’s brain by an early morning radio news programme during which an NHS interviewee highlighted how much time medics waste having to log on to different IT systems to treat their patients. Little seems to have changed since early 2020 when a Health Secretary said ‘It is frankly ridiculous how much time our doctors and nurses waste logging on to multiple systems. Too often outdated technology slows down and frustrates staff. Other interviewees bemoaned NHS vacancies, waiting lists, delays to patients being discharged from hospital, and workforce strikes over pay. The seed was thus sown for the Badger to cogitate on the NHS, especially as it celebrates 75 years of existence on 5th July 2023.

Then this seed grew further when the Badger took a call from his cousin as he reached the supermarket. His cousin is recovering at home after an operation. Their NHS consultant advised that the waiting time for their operation could be six months, and so, instead of waiting in debilitating pain, they dipped into their savings and had their operation privately just two weeks later. The Badger’s brain was thus already cogitating on the NHS as he approached the Marmite shelves.

The Badger likes Marmite and the NHS, a huge, complex organisation employing over 1.3m people that has a special place in the public’s affection because we are all users and it’s free at the point of use. Unfortunately, perpetual transformations have long been strangling its vital signs and its service to patients, making it a political and ideological football and the centre of shrill media outcry. Current struggles as it approaches its 75th birthday imply that it is systemically crumbling in its current form, and something more fundamental must happen to make it fit for the rest of the 21st century. That, of course, is just the outcome of a cogitation on the way home from a supermarket with a jar of Marmite. One thing’s certain, however. Marmite and the NHS will divide opinions and generate highly charged debate for years to come…

Are optimists, pessimists, or realists the most successful leaders?

The Badger was asked many times during his career to engage with delivery and business leaders encountering serious problems delivering a contracted project to requirement, time, and budget. These requests were often initiated by the company’s Chief Executive who simply asked the Badger to ‘chat with those responsible and see if you can help’. They knew the Badger would interpret the request as ‘get stuck in and get the  problems on this contract resolved’. Being aware of the personal traits of the people you deal with, especially those in senior positions, is crucial to interpreting what they really mean when they ask you to do something!

One such ‘how can I help’ conversation with a business leader proved memorable because it spawned a hypothesis that the Badger feels has been validated over the years. Although we knew each other in passing, it was the first time we had met for any substantive conversation. After some initial chit-chat, the business leader quickly focused on describing the delivery, financial, and contractual difficulties of their project. They had, apparently, already spoken to a couple of experienced staff about helping to resolve the difficulties, but neither was, in their eyes, suited to the task. They described one as a cheery but superficial, glass-half-full optimist, and the other as a pedantic, too laid-back, glass-half-empty pessimist. The Badger remembers wondering how he would measure up!

After an hour’s discussion, the business leader asked the Badger to help resolve the project’s problems, adding that ‘you are a realist and you don’t care whether the glass is half full or half empty, only that the glass is a receptacle to be filled with as much liquid as possible’. Their comment spawned a hypothesis in the Badger’s mind, namely that the delivery and business leaders who have the most success, and also the longest careers, are realists. Engagements with many diverse business and delivery leaders over the years have tended to reinforce the hypothesis.

Being a realist means having a personality with a propensity to take measured risks and take measured decisions. It doesn’t mean never demonstrating optimism or pessimism. Those with an optimistic, glass-half-full, leaning tend to be less risk-conscious, while those with a pessimistic, glass-half-empty, leaning tend to have little appetite for risk at all! During COVID-19, for example, glass-half-full characters might have seen themselves as less at risk and taken less precautions, whereas those with a glass-half-empty outlook might never have left their house at all. Realists, on the other hand, would have taken measured risks based on knowing that the virus’s impact mainly depended on age and underlying health.

The Badger’s seen glass-half-full, and glass-half-empty leaders be successful, but it’s the realists who’ve been the most successful and had the longest careers. Is the Badger’s hypothesis sound scientifically? Don’t know, but he’ll stand by it until a proper people expert shoots it down in flames!

Bigbug, AI, and common sense…

After a day of strenuous activity in the garden, the Badger settled down to watch something on the television that wasn’t full of doom and despondency. Nothing grabbed his interest as he flicked through the channels, so he scrolled Netflix for a film that wasn’t full of gory action or Marvel superheroes and came across Bigbug from director Jean-Pierre Jeunet.  Netflix describes the storyline as ‘Humans have ceded most tasks to AI in 2045, even in Alice’s nostalgic home. So, when robots stage a coup, her androids protectively lock her doors.’  Intrigued, the Badger hit play and watched this off-beat, quirky, sci-fi comedy to the end. It proved to be thought provoking.

Millennial or Generation Z digital natives will easily relate to the film’s backdrop of a society in 2045 based on automation, AI, and robots, because much of the technology portrayed – AI, drones, sophisticated sensors, the Internet of Things, machine learning, driverless cars, and so on – is a progression of what exists today. Indeed, Bigbug’s 2045, only 22 years away, cannot be deemed unrealistic when digital technology has already revolutionised life in the last two decades. While watching the film, the Badger wondered why we would tolerate the development of a society where AI and robots could dominate, control, and potentially destroy the human race. The answer seemed quite simple; humans are fickle and predominantly focused on the short term and convenience.

There’s no doubt that the pandora’s box of AI-centred systems is already open, and open letters signed by people like Elon Musk, and danger warnings from Geoffrey Hinton, the godfather of AI, will not change that. The genie is out of the bottle, and it’ll never go back in. Its simple common sense, surely, that if we create systems with the potential to be more powerful than humans then we must be clear on how we retain control over them? Unfortunately, common sense seems a bit thin on the ground these days. History shows that action to constrain and control the use of new technologies normally happens retrospectively, and AI seems to be no exception as we realise that it could, to put it provocatively, become a self-inflicted, weapon of mass human destruction!

The Badger found Bigbug’s technology-centric world of 2045 unattractive, but not outlandish. No one can predict the future, but it’s a certainty that AI-centred technology is rapidly changing human life as we know it, and presenting risks for our longer-term existence. The Badger thinks that we should never allow ourselves to become subservient to any technology that can lead to the decline and eventual eradication of our species. Surely that’s only common sense and the time has come to deal with the AI elephant in the room…

Speaking truth to power in a commercial organisation…

The Badger was reminded of the dangers of speaking truth to those in power while talking to a friend at a social event recently. While sharing stories of the ying and yang of company life, his friend mentioned that they had been quietly tapped on the shoulder to say that they were at risk of redundancy. The Badger’s friend, with many years of loyal service, explained that their relationship with their boss had deteriorated, and that their boss was manipulating their exit because they had been consistently and relentlessly telling them the truth about project difficulties and necessary corrective actions. The boss, apparently, didn’t want to accept the truth, the difficulties were getting worse, and the Badger’s friend’s level of frustration suggested that both individuals had come to the end of their tethers!

Speaking truth to power is fraught with danger and to minimise its risks requires not only having an objective understanding of the personality and priorities of the person holding the power, but also good awareness of organisational politics, culture, and other factors. Without this, someone speaking truth to power might not foresee or prepare for the personal consequences of possible retaliation. These points were made to the Badger by his own boss many years ago during a coaching session. Their advice has influenced the way the Badger has spoken truth to power ever since.

One crucial piece of advice was that when speaking your truth, you must fully understand that you are either challenging something the person with power is responsible for, or their view or opinion of a situation or circumstance. It is thus essential to focus on the issue rather than on criticising the person or others. It is also essential, before you speak, to think through not only the possible retaliations and negative consequences for yourself, but also your gameplan should these materialise. If you don’t embrace these points then you may be ignored, your frustration will fester,  and you will be both flummoxed and unprepared should someone, for example from HR, tap you on the shoulder because you’re ‘a problem’. The Badger’s boss commented that anyone speaking truth to power must themselves partake in the gamesmanship that is inherent in the functioning of any sizeable commercial organisation.

Good leaders and managers, of course, want open communication and to hear truths spoken by peers and subordinates. Indeed, many cultivate dispassionate, objective, and dependable trusted advisors who tell them the truth. The least effective, on the other hand, only hear what they want to hear and are dismissive of truths from others. Unfortunately, the Badger’s friend had not foreseen the dangers of speaking truth to leaders. They have, however, learned to think before speaking, to always consider the potential personal consequences beforehand, and to have a pre-prepared game plan to look after your interests if you get a tap on the shoulder. Speaking truth to power requires gamesmanship…

Setting the bar too high…

In his school days, the Badger was in the school field athletics team because he was good at javelin, long jump, and – rather surprisingly for someone of average height – the high jump. It was, according to the team coach, the Badger’s natural technique rather than any specific physicality that underpinned why he was good at these events. The coach, a resolute athlete who demanded the same dedication from others, had two favourite phrases to encourage team members to train hard and do better. The first was ‘technique is the difference between reliable success and reliable failure’. The second, used especially for the high jumpers, was ‘you don’t jump high unless you set the bar high’. Little did the schoolboy Badger know that he would regularly hear leaders and managers utter this one throughout his working life!

The Badger’s often heard executives say ‘you don’t jump high unless you set the bar high’ when setting an expected, imperative outcome that is challenging, and when trying to persuade their audience that the challenge is tough, but the outcome is within reach. These last few words, however, are crucial because if an audience don’t sense that the outcome is within reach then they will nod sagely, consider argument futile, and only work half-heartedly towards the objective. If that happens then the road ahead will almost certainly be full of disappointment, blame, low morale, problems, and financial under-performance.

For many leaders and senior staff in sizeable organisations, attending an annual gathering at which executives set out the key priorities and targets for the coming year is routine. The Badger’s attended many such events over the years, and whilst fundamentally there’s nothing wrong in using ‘you don’t jump high unless you set the bar high’ to set ambitious targets, two observations crystallise from the experience. The first is that if the audience sense the challenging target is reachable then they will embrace it, fully align their support and activities, and executives will hold onto their jobs. The second is that if the audience feels the bar has been set so high that you need binoculars to see it, then they will pay lip-service to the challenge, gossip about the credibility of executives, worry about the enterprise’s viability, and speculate about whose heads will roll when outcomes are not met.

The point is simply this. If you are the leader in a company, project, programme, or service, then don’t lose touch with reality or your people. If  you set the bar way too high, then you will have an unhappy workforce, people will leave, output and quality will decline, financial forecasts will not be met, and your credibility as a leader will be damaged. The best leaders stay grounded in reality, make good judgements that balance competing soft and hard priorities, set the bar within reach, and communicate honestly and inspiringly. Those that don’t ultimately suffer the consequences.