Electric and self-driving vehicles for the masses? One day, but perhaps not soon…

The Badger’s considered changing his trusty but aging car for something more current and greener. There’s plenty of choice in the market so it should be easy coming to a decision, shouldn’t it? Err, No.

Why not? Because if you want to spend your money wisely then you have to recognise that entropy in the transportation world is rising dramatically! Entropy, by the way, is a measure of disorder and it always increases with time (as per the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics). The Badger has certainly observed the world become increasingly disordered over his lifetime and this isn’t going to change in the future.

Disruption and disorder in the transport world are easy to see. For example, UK government policy is to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040. Electric vehicles (EVs) are deemed to be the future, even though their climate credentials aren’t quite as positive as you might think. Car manufactures are pushing ahead with EVs swiftly, but with a current market share of ~3% across Europe there’s much to do to overcome their limitations and convince the public. In addition, of course, technology marches forward and – if you believe it – self-driving cars will be common on UK roads from 2025 and might improve traffic flow by 35%. Hmm. These are all things to think about if you’re thinking of buying a car today and want to spend your money wisely.

The Badger cogitated and has concluded that the timelines for establishing EVs and self-driving vehicles for the masses on UK roads are very optimistic. Why? Firstly, progress on addressing EV range limitations, charging infrastructure, and take-up by the public is still slow (but improving). Secondly, there’s about 1 billion lines of software in a self-driving car which means there’ll be many bugs when operating and ‘integrating’ with other conventional and autonomous vehicles at scale in the real-world. Thirdly, while the UK government is to report on the autonomous vehicle regulatory framework in 2021, legislation moves slowly and political objectives are rarely met on time, especially at a time of political disorder. And finally, the ‘Introduction to Service’ phase of any programme that changes personal and societal behaviour always encounters difficulties and delay. It took decades for motor vehicles to replace horse and carts, and it will be a similar story for EVs and self-driving vehicles overtaking today’s conventional vehicles. It seems naïve to think otherwise.

So, what did the Badger decide about changing his car? Not to! Because if you do the analysis, currently that’s actually the cheapest, greenest and most future proof option as entropy rises further. Electric and self-driving vehicles for the masses will happen one day, but perhaps not as soon as the hype suggests…

Smart Meters; Hardly a success…

If you’ve worked extensively on major technology-intensive programmes then you’ll know to expect bumps in the road as new hardware, software, communication networks and processes are introduced to users in the real world. So, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the UK Smart Meter programme is in the press again!

The target for every UK home to have been offered a smart meter by the end of 2020 isn’t going to be met. Rollout is stalling. Just look at the Q1 2019 rollout numbers! It isn’t credible that the target can be met, but the relevant government department ‘remains committed to ensuring every home has been offered a smart meter by the end of 2020’. This has to be taken with a pinch of salt when even the CEO of Citizens Advice – a charity helping citizens resolve life difficulties with free, independent, confidential advice – thinks the target is unfeasible and must be delayed to ~2023!

Delay means more cost, and the published estimates of consumer bills reducing by £300m/year in 2020 and £1.2bn/year by 2030 will inevitably be revised down. Who pays? The consumer. Although many technology professionals have worked very hard on this programme to get the new software, hardware and communication networks in place, the overall programme has the whiff of white elephant territory and it’s a struggle to see it as a good advert for major ‘Smart’ government initiatives.

Who’s at fault? No doubt many entities will point fingers at each other, but – as the November 2018 National Audit Office’s report noted – the buck stops with the government department that currently still ‘remains committed to ensuring every home has been offered a smart meter by the end of 2020’. The Badger has a simple view. The numbers don’t fib. The costs are ever rising. The business case must be stressed. Fault is rarely with a single entity; it rests collectively. What’s needed now is less rhetoric, spin and defensiveness, and more honesty, realism and greater respect for the end consumer in the roll out.

The 2018 Smart Meter Progress Report ends with the statement ‘the Government has committed to update the cost-benefit analysis for the Programme and complete a stock take of consumer benefits in 2019’. The outcome from this – if it happens – may be the uncomfortable reading that produces a trigger ‘event’ for ‘revision’ of the programme. Time will tell. Meanwhile the Badger not only saves money and the climate without a smart meter, but also avoids the higher tariffs levied by suppliers when consumers exercise their right not to have a smart meter. These may be digital times but one thing’s clear. £11bn and counting, stalling rollout to ambivalent consumers, delay, questionable cost/benefit and the whiff of white elephant are hardly success indicators…

Consumers; key to helping the planet…

The doorbell rang. It was a group of political activists canvassing for this week’s EU elections. When the Badger opened the door, they immediately launched into a climate change pitch with phrases like ‘they haven’t done this’, and ‘they need to do that’. The frequent use of ‘they’ grated. They didn’t complete their pitch because the Badger terminated the conversation politely.

Surely dealing with climate issues starts with ourselves and not ‘they’ or someone else? After all, it’s us as consumers that are at the heart of many of the issues given the relentless acceleration of consumerism and technological advancement over the last 100 years. A good look at Oxford University’s ‘Our World In Data’ shows an obvious correlation between the accelerating consumerism, technological advancement and global temperature and rising CO2 emissions over the same period. So if each of us becomes just a bit less of a consumer then it helps address our planet’s challenges.

Technological progress over the Badger’s lifetime has been extraordinary, as neatly illustrated by the data available here and here. In the 1970s colour TVs were a luxury and had bulky cathode ray tubes, mainstream motor cars functioned without electronics, a fixed-line telephone did not exist in every home, and computers were the realm of big companies or public institutions. Today’s TVs are ‘smart’ and thin, cars don’t function without electronics, every person has a mobile telephone, and powerful personal computing devices are the norm. Such progress has been driven by Innovation (especially in the realm of electronics, communications, information storage and processing), Big Business, Consumers, and Oil.

The Badgers point is this. Consumers – you and me – are the most important of these drivers. Why? Because our habits and behaviour matters to the planet and ultimately influences the positions taken by business and governments. What you do matters. So next time you want a gadget of some kind, ask yourself if you really need it. If you don’t need it then don’t buy it. You’ll have helped the planet!

After the canvassers had gone the Badger went to the local supermarket and was astonished to see it as selling a plastic ring to keep an egg perfectly round when being fried. Why does such a product even exist? Does it serve a real need? Doubtful. Fortunately, it didn’t look as if any had been sold, which suggests us consumers are getting less fickle so there’s hope for the planet yet. We’re all consumers, but just because we can buy something doesn’t mean we should!

The Badger’s now looking forward to having this kind of discussion with the next group of political canvassers that come knocking on the door, if they’re brave enough of course.

The builder and his ‘critical infrastructure’…

Chatting to a self-employed builder working on a neighbour’s property last week proved interesting. The guy works very hard, but readily admits he’s a slave to his smart phone whenever it rings, buzzes, beeps or its screen flashes. He always responds to these triggers regardless of whether he’s up a ladder, laying bricks or digging a trench. The builder says his smart phone apps are as essential to him as the physical tools of his trade. He laments this but says it’s a necessity if he’s to make his living.

Conversation somehow moved onto online security and privacy. The builder said he’s read about this in his ubiquitous tabloid newspaper, but never pays attention to things like password advice. When asked why not, he simply said ‘because I’m a builder. I just want my day to day life to be as easy as possible’. The builder has used the same password for everything for years! He saw the Badger flinch and frown, and just said ‘With all this AI and driverless cars malarkey, this security gubbins must have been sorted so it’s obviously safe to run my life with one password’. Oh dear!

If the builder’s thinking typifies that of the average person then we should worry about the depth of security and privacy awareness! In 2019, ~55% of British firms reported cyber-attacks (up from 40% a year ago). There have been more cyber-attacks on ‘critical infrastructure’, and Facebook has hoovered up 15 million email address books without permission! The online revolution of recent decades has certainly unlocked Pandora’s box. The builder recognises this but just says: ‘The Genie’s out of the bottle and can’t be put back in, so I’ll just carry on as-is with what works for me’. Oh dear!

The Badger realised two things from the conversation. First, there’s lots more to do to counter security and privacy ambivalence and educate people on the subject. Second, the smart phone in your hand is your ‘critical infrastructure’ and you must treat it as such. To prove the point, try not using it for a few days, like Badger did this last week. Yes, it’s difficult and strange at first, but you adapt surprisingly easily to overcome inconveniences.

Today the Badger and the builder chatted again. The builder has a new phone, a basic one providing just voice and SMS. Why? Because he lost his old one. He thinks he dropped it in a trench and poured concrete over it. He doesn’t miss it because he’s realised all he really needs from his ‘critical infrastructure’ is voice and SMS. Unfortunately, this has made him even more ambivalent about online security, privacy and passwords. Some people will never learn…

Smart meters & devices – How much do you value your privacy at home?

The UK’s Smart Meter programme continues make the press, see here for example. Things are unsurprisingly late. Consumers, who’re paying for the £11bn programme through current energy bills, can apparently expect savings of less than £1 a week on bills by 2030. The utility companies haven’t been particularly consumer friendly in their rollouts. There’s been lots of pressure tactics applied to get consumers to accept a Smart Meter installation. Indeed, the best energy deals today mean a consumer must accept having a Smart Meter. The Badger has proudly resisted and doesn’t have one!

Why? Doesn’t the Badger want to save money or the planet? Is it because the Badger is intimidated by modern technology? Or is it just the Badger’s a dinosaur and resistant to change? Good questions. The Badger’s very pragmatic and objective, very technology, environment, and budget aware, and very conscious of how tech is transforming society, so what’s the real reason for not having a Smart Meter? Simple. The Badger values his privacy.

Smart Meters and other smart devices in your home provide granular data that can be analysed to determine what you do inside your home. That’s nectar to organisations and marketing companies who, let’s face it, employ expert lawyers to ensure they can maximise their benefit from the data they capture from you and your home. Articles from Bloomberg and the Daily Mail are worth a read. They reinforce that we must not be naïve when it comes to how such data is used.

The Badger is an advocate of ‘An Englishman’s home is his castle’. Smart Meters and smart devices encroach on that being the case. Unlike twenty years ago, today’s smart technology means you no longer really have privacy in your own home. Others will pooh-pooh that statement and assert legal protections are in place, but should you trust that’s proven to be the case with the companies involved? Hmm. The only safe way of keeping what you do within your home private is not to have Smart Meters or devices like those in the Bloomberg article in the home in the first place.

So, there you have it. The Badger values privacy within his home way above any future saving of £1 a week – a loaf of bread – in energy bills. In fact, the Badger’s significantly reduced home energy bills without a Smart Meter and still remains an advocate for technology that preserves individual rights, freedoms and brings real benefit to society. Does the case for the UK Smart Meter programme really stack up? Views differ. All the Badger knows is that ‘the Badgers home is his castle’. Smart inanimate interlopers will be resisted until privacy within the home can be guaranteed…

Burglary, the Police, and ‘Smart Doorbells…

The Badger’s been burgled! The Police were great. They attended swiftly, established the culprit wore gloves, and went door to door to see if neighbours had seen anything suspicious. They hadn’t, so the attending Pc rightly set expectations that little could done without tangible leads. The Badger is thus one of the UK’s 2019 burglary statistics! For info, there were ~423,000 UK burglaries in 2018, much lower than 10 years ago, but the clear up rate is low.

The attending Pc was very professional and sported personal technology that included a body camera, a radio, and a rugged smartphone that was used to collect details and statements in the comfort of the Badger’s lounge. Potential security improvements were discussed, and the Badger asked if ‘smart doorbells’ – tech that alerts your smartphone – would help. Apparently, simpler, cheaper, and more traditional items probably provide better deterrence. Why? First, because most burglaries are opportunistic, not targeted. Second, because burglars are as tech savvy as the rest of us and can take measures to protect themselves. And third, alerts on your smartphone to ‘stranger-danger’ may increase your anxiety because the burglar is not actually prevented from entering if you’re not at home. Having images is useful provided they lead to improved culprit capture and prosecution, but the jury’s out on that front. The Badger jokingly said that he’d deploy some old-fashioned tech – bone-crunching animal traps. The Pc’s response was clear. Advice was expressed in a way that it was not to be argued with!

The Police were great throughout. The Badger felt well handled, a marked contrast to recent interactions with some major businesses. The Pc’s tech supported all aspects of the incident process smoothly and the Badger sees why the Police need even more tech and systems to catch ‘bad people’ and deal well with victims. Currently there’s a fuss about police trialling of Automated Facial Recognition (AFR), and the likes of Liberty and Big Brother Watch routinely challenge the establishment on surveillance, privacy, and civil liberties. In reality, however, we already live in a surveillance society. CCTV is everywhere. So is automated number plate recognition. Supermarkets track our grocery habits and social media giants know and sell everything about our lives. The surveillance and privacy genie is already out of the bottle and the Police need all the tech and systems they can get to keep us safe in the modern world. Surveillance by democratically controlled authorities is much better than the uncontrolled ‘surveillance capitalism’ regimes – a term from a radio item this morning – of the giant social media companies!

The Pc who dealt with the Badger went on to apprehend three youths who robbed a corner shop at knife point. The Pc emailed the next day apologising for the delay to a follow-up letter due to this! The Badger was gobsmacked. Support your local police officers; they deserve more respect than they get…

Do we, as individuals, think enough about digital devices and the environment?

How many of us really think about our impact on the planet when we use our digital devices? Few, especially youngsters. The burning of hydrocarbon fuels, heavy industry, plastics and deforestation tend to be higher in our awareness than the impact of tech and ICT.

The Badger’s young nephews neatly illustrated this in a chat over a meal at which their smart devices were banished to their coat pockets by their parents. The youngsters were serious and passionate about recycling, saving the planet from plastic, ‘green’ vehicles, and preserving nature, but they were stumped when asked about the environmental impact of using their digital devices. Their faces were a picture as it was explained that in addition to the manufacturing process, every interaction with their devices involved a communication network, a data centre, and thus a small impact on the environment.

The largest tech and ICT enterprises have long focused on ‘Green ICT’, but did you know that ICT could account for 25% of electricity demand and 5.5% of global carbon emissions by 2025? Did you know that a 2018 paper from Canada’s McMasters University suggests ICT could account for 14% of global emissions (equivalent to ~50% of global transportation emissions) by 2040? Did you know that by 2020 the energy consumption related to smartphones may surpass that of PCs and laptops, and that smartphones are likely to be the most environmentally damaging devices due to manufacturing emissions and the use of precious metals mined at high cost? The Badger suspects you didn’t.
So, what’s the answer to the question in the blog’s title? Simple. The answer’s ‘No’. But we should. Children are online from an ever earlier age – see here for example – so it’s important they , and indeed we all, think about digital device environmental matters as a matter of routine. There’s an impact on our planet with every use of a smartphone, every piece of streamed music or video, every email, every new connected tech gadget bought, and every robot or autonomous vehicle you might encounter in the future.

The Badger’s motives are just to raise awareness and make you think! Health professionals tell us that if we eat a balanced diet, exercise, and enjoy our indulgences in moderation and with common sense then – as Star Trek’s Mr Spock might say – we’ll live long and prosper. If we throw into the mix more thinking about how we as individuals interact with the world through our digital devices, then the planet will ‘live long and prosper’ too…