If you run a company, business unit, programme, project, or service, then you want it to be successful, don’t you? Of course you do. Many sources can guide you on what to do to ensure success, but in simple terms there are, in the Badger’s experience, essentially three pillars to get right. These are Objectives (clarity on what you’re setting out to achieve), Approach (the approach you take to communicate and align others with your objectives), and Plan (the schedule to deliver your expected beneficial outcomes). Having encountered many IT business and delivery successes and failures over the years, the Badger has a simple rule-of-thumb that if all three pillars are set well, then success will follow. If, however, one or more pillar is dysfunctional then turmoil and disappointment is inevitable.
Applying his rule-of-thumb to the current tariff war initiated by the US suggests that the success of this endeavour is far from certain. Are the US administration’s objectives clear, well-founded, and well-articulated? Is an approach based on bullying, bluster, and distorted information, the right one? Is there a thought-through plan that has factored in the risks? You’ll have your own view on the answers. The Badger, however, senses the current ‘gunslinger’ approach points more towards ‘no’ rather than ‘yes’ answers. When the US claims that all countries (allies and foes) have ‘raped, pillaged, and plundered’ the US economy when its giant tech companies have ‘raped, pillaged, and plundered’ everyone’s data globally then, whatever the tariff war outcome, it’s clear that things will never be the same again.
This democratically elected US administration took office just a few months ago and has bullied allies and foes alike ever since. Public pronouncements have been bellicose and relationships with nations around the world have undoubtedly been shaken by the US’s brutal, opening tariff war salvo. Erstwhile friends and foes alike are in the throes of protecting their national interests knowing that the geopolitical and trading landscape is changing significantly. Capitulation to US bullying tactics seems unlikely, especially when other countries know that the US public will likely to feel great, self-inflicted, pain.
The Badger’s feels a) that at least two pillars of the US administration’s tariff endeavour are wobbly, b) that this US administration will declare success regardless of the eventual outcome, and c) that the US is already a loser. Why the latter? Well, the US may be the world’s biggest economy, but respect for the country has been damaged, and once lost that respect is difficult to rebuild. If you ignore the inevitable spin and bluster, announcements in the last 24-hours suggest some US back-pedalling in the light of market chaos and growing global economic disquiet. History shows that world superpowers rise and fall, and it feels like the US star is waning and China’s is rising. The most satisfying thing for the Badger, however, is that his pillars rule-of-thumb still seems to work pretty well!
