Social media: The same trajectory as tobacco?

A New Year is fast approaching. For many it’s a time of joy and optimism, but for others it can be a daunting, sad, and worrying prospect. Christmas and the New Year period for the Badger’s family is about getting together whatever the circumstances. When we do, there’s always a discussion about the future of the tech world and so the Badger’s been musing on the subject in preparation. One of his conclusions has been that foreseeing a future event isn’t as outrageous as it might seem if you look at history and compare it with present-day dynamics.

The Badger’s concluded, for example, that ‘social media will follow the same trajectory as other industries that have touched health, cognition and social order’. That’s not an outrageous conclusion when there are striking structural parallels between social media and, for example, the tobacco industry. The latter thrived for decades in a regulatory vacuum with products that were known to damage users’ health. Similarly, social media operates in an under-regulated space with products that keep users engaged to maximise profits regardless of the toll on public health. Whereas tobacco’s harm is biochemical and physiological, social media’s is cognitive, social, behavioural, and physical in a way that’s harder to see or measure. It hides it’s harm behind its convenience, utility, and benefits. Worrying about harmful content, its encouragement of habitual screentime leading to lower physical activity, lowering attention spans, and eroding emotional adaptability, is not misplaced because these are all bad for long term physical and mental health.

The tobacco industry was built on the underlying motives of maximum user engagement, maximum revenue, product optimisation for addictive behaviour, and resistance to regulation. Social media seems the same. With tobacco, law makers eventually ‘woke up’ because – as history shows with industries that touch human health, cognition, and social order – once harms and their cost become undeniable in the public domain, society always pushes back! At some stage this seems likely to happen with social media resulting in its radical transformation. Gradual reform rarely works when business models are not aligned with societal well-being, companies are financially and politically powerful, and consumers have become accustomed to products and services. Any transformation of social media, given the slow speed of regulation, seems a long way off unless something radical happens.

What could that something be? Well, history shows that radical change tends to come from economic collapse rather than moral awakenings or gradual reform. If the social media giants were to start making huge financial losses that collapse their share price, then radical change would happen because such shocks always force restructuring, regulation, and cultural re-evaluation. Is this plausible? Well, never say never! The Badger will be adopting ‘never say never’ as his reference point for everything during 2026. In the current world and tech climate, it seems silly to do otherwise…

The world needs Australia to succeed with banning those under 16 from major social media platforms…

Australia’s legislation banning the access of those under the age of sixteen from major social media platforms came into force today, 10th December. Its purpose is to protect children from harmful content, cyberbullying, and online predators. The major social media platforms are required to take reasonable steps to enforce age restrictions or face fines of up to AU$50 million. A neat item from Australia’s ABC on the topic can be found here.  Some platforms began locking out existing under-sixteen accounts and blocking new ones a couple of weeks ago.

Australia is the first country in the world to impose such a ban, and their move could be the first domino in a global trend given that debates are underway in many other countries about following suit. Supporters of the ban see it as a necessary safeguard against online harms and a way to hold the giant tech companies accountable. Critics and the social media companies, however, argue that the ban is blunt, hard to enforce, risks isolating teenagers, and raises privacy/digital rights concerns. After absorbing a wide variety of views expressed in the media by affected teens, parents, and industry and government commentators, the Badger asked himself, ‘who’s side are you on?’ He found the answer surprisingly easy.

From his own use of social media, the Badger thinks that society’s general moral decline is plain to see when misinformation and disinformation abound, and a lot of content amplifies unethical behaviour, distorts decent judgement, and attempts to reshape cultural values. Viral fame seems to reward scandals, outrage, and bad conduct, and constant exposure to divisive content fuels fear and outrage undermining the traditional values that have held communities together for generations. Today’s under-sixteens are vulnerable because they often model their behaviour on what they see online rather than on traditional role models. The Badger thus admires and supports Australia’s action because the major platforms have been too powerful for far too long. They are fast to act to make more money from users’ content, but slow to act on anything dubious or perceived as limiting their power and interests. Will more countries eventually follow Australia’s lead? Probably.

The ban’s critics assert that under-sixteens will simply find alternative ways to access the major platforms. That’s a hollow argument because it’s always been true that teenagers find ways around legal barriers. For example, there are laws about underage consumption of alcohol and smoking cigarettes, and yet it happens! Similarly, in his youth the Badger and his friends found ways of watching movies rated as inappropriate for our age at the local cinema. As has always been the case, the law puts a firm stake in the ground for society, and long may that continue. The world thus needs Australia to succeed with its ban, so let’s hope it does…

Cyber security – a ‘Holy Grail’?

King Arthur was a legendary medieval king of Britain. His association with the search for the ‘Holy Grail’, described in various traditions as a cup, dish, or stone with miraculous healing powers and, sometimes, providing eternal youth or infinite sustenance, stems from the 12th century. Since then, the search has become an essential part of Arthurian legend, so much so that Monty Python parodied it in their 1975 film. Indeed, it’s common for people today to refer to any goal that seems impossible to reach as a ‘Holy Grail’. It’s become a powerful metaphor for a desired, ultimate achievement that’s beyond reach.

Recently, bad cyber actors – a phrase used here to refer collectively to wicked individuals, gangs, and organisations, regardless of their location, ideology, ultimate sponsorship or specific motives – have caused a plethora of highly disruptive incidents in the UK. Incidents at the Co-op, Marks & Spencer, Harrods, JLR, and  Kido  have been high profile due to the nature and scale of the impact on the companies themselves, their supply chains, their customers, and also potentially the economy. Behind the scenes (see here, for example) questions are, no doubt, being asked not only of the relevant IT service providers, but also more generally about how vulnerable we are to cyber security threats.

While taking in the colours of Autumn visible through the window by his desk, the Badger found himself mulling over what these incidents imply in a modern world reliant on the internet, online services, automation and underlying IT systems. As the UK government’s ‘Cyber security breaches survey – 2025’ shows, the number of bad cyber actor incidents reported is high, with many more going unreported. AI, as the National Cyber Security Centre  indicates, means that bad actors will inevitably become more effective in their intrusion operations, and so we can expect an increase in the frequency and intensity of cyber threats in the coming years. The musing Badger, therefore, concluded that organisations need to be relentlessly searching for a ‘Holy Grail’ to protect their operations from being vulnerable to serious cyber security breaches. As he watched a few golden leaves flutter to the ground, the Badger also concluded that in a world underpinned by complex IT, continuous digital evolution, and AI, this ‘Holy Grail’ will never be found. But that doesn’t mean organisations should stop searching for it!

These damaging incidents highlight again that cyber security cannot be taken for granted, especially when the tech revolution of recent decades has enabled anyone with a little knowledge and internet access to be a bad cyber actor. The UK government’s just announced the introduction of  digital ID by 2029. Perhaps they have found a ‘Holy Grail’ that guarantees not only the security of personal data, but also that its IT programmes will deliver on time and to their original budget? Hmm, that’s very doubtful…

Smartwatch, traditional watch, or both?

Is there a smartwatch from the likes of Apple, Samsung, Huawei and others, on your wrist? A decade ago, smartwatches were essentially novelties for tech enthusiasts. Today they’re mainstream. In the ten years since Apple unveiled its first watch  they’ve become a popular, wrist-worn, command and control centres for time, date, productivity aids, communication, fitness and personal health.  Globally there are more than 450 million smartwatches in use, and the number is expected to rise to ~750 million by 2029. Many people are turning to smartwatches from traditional mechanical/ automatic watches because they do significantly more than just tell the time and their capabilities continue to expand as technology marches on.

So, does this mean the traditional wristwatch, which first appeared in the 19th century, will soon be obsolete? Many say yes, but the Badger thinks otherwise. A traditional mechanical/automatic watch performs its purpose of providing the time and date  extremely well. Accordingly, it’ll be around for many decades yet because it has design simplicity, is robust, doesn’t require frequent battery charging or software updates, and is immune to cyber threats. Traditional watches provide their core function – the time and date – in aesthetically pleasing hardware that can be chosen to suit any lifestyle or occasion. Many think that a traditional watch’s lack of connectivity to today’s online world is a disadvantage. On the contrary, the Badger thinks it’s an advantage.

Smartwatches, of course, come in many guises but one thing fundamentally drives their design, namely convenient access to the services and information that underpin the rhythm of life in the modern digital world. Their manufacturers routinely enhance their design, functionality, and usability as a wrist-based hub for time, date, and things like voice and message communication, activity and fitness tracking, and personal health monitoring and diagnostics. As a convenient computer on our wrists, however, they are yet another screen that grabs attention. They need regular battery recharges and software and security updates to protect against cyber threats. Like smartphones, there’s also a better model coming soon!

So, are smartwatches rendering traditional mechanical/automatic watches obsolete? No. Why not? Because most people today understand the dangers of the digital world, and they are increasingly aware from world events of the inconvenience and turmoil that can ensue when key energy, communication, and online infrastructure is damaged. Their smartwatch could be rendered useless in such circumstances, whereas a traditional mechanical or automatic watch will continue to deliver its core function, time and date, unabated. So don’t ditch your traditional watch for a smartwatch, have and use both (as the Badger does). You will then always be able to access the time and date on your wrist should a digital disaster occur. The obsolescence of traditional watches is a long way off because in the current world climate it’s prudent to have non-digital contingencies for unexpected digital difficulties…

Frustration caused by the plague of delivery vans…

Life’s full of ups and downs, and some weeks are better than others! For the Badger, Easter week was full of frustrations, all ostensibly caused by society’s addiction to online shopping with home delivery. Like many, the Badger used his car to visit family, friends, and for errands over the Easter period. Every journey was delayed at some point by the stop, start, and illegal parking activities of vehicles that were part of the ever-growing plague of multi-drop delivery vans on UK streets.

Here’s one example that caused frustration. The Badger drove an elderly neighbour to their appointment at the local health centre, a journey which normally takes ~7 minutes with a route that entails driving through the town’s High Street. Well before reaching this busy street, traffic had slowed to a snail’s pace. This was because a well-known company’s multi-drop delivery van had parked on double-yellow (no-waiting) lines in the middle of the High Street. The driver had left the van to deliver a collection of packages to nearby residences. The illegally parked van caused havoc as car drivers tried to navigate around it against the constant flow of traffic coming in the opposite direction. Just as the Badger reached the High Street, the van driver returned, collected another armful of packages, and walked off with them in a different direction ignoring the obvious disruption their van was causing.

Just before it was the Badger’s turn to navigate past the van, the driver returned, drove off, and stopped again on double-yellow lines 50 metres further along the street. This made the disruption worse because another multi-drop delivery van had parked close by on the opposite side of the road creating a chicane for traffic in both directions. As a result of all this, the 7-minute drive to the Health Centre took nearly 25 minutes, making the Badger’s neighbour slightly late for their appointment. This, and similar experiences on other journeys over the Easter period, triggered some musing.

Online shopping with home delivery has revolutionised convenience, but one consequence is the plague of vans on our roads and the tendency of their drivers to ignore the rules of the road due to tight schedules, high delivery volumes, and the need for frequent stops. Since these van drivers seem to be immune to the rules of the roads, the Badger thinks there’s a need for an enforcement solution. If today’s digital tech can tell you when your online purchase will arrive at your door, then it’s clearly possible to use drone, satellite, and information technologies to a) detect in real-time when multi-drop van drivers park illegally on double yellow lines and b) automatically fine them and their employer for the misdemeanour. It currently seems that no amount of ‘company policy’ or ‘driver training’ makes a difference, but hitting them in their pockets probably will…

Security: People are always the weakest link…

The Badger tried to suppress a giggle when the accidental inclusion of a journalist in the US administration’s Signal group chat hit the media. He failed. On watching the US President on television call the journalist in question a ‘sleazebag’, the Badger laughed aloud as the proverbial idiom ‘pot calling the kettle black’ came to mind. The administration’s subsequent bluster about the journalist’s inclusion and the group’s messages has not been its finest hour. Asserting that the military attack information shared was unclassified is, for most independent observers, just ludicrous. Indeed, the whole episode raises many questions, not least being whether the administration’s senior echelons actually respect and adhere to standard security policies and protocols.

Signature of the UK Official Secrets Act and being thoroughly vetted for a high level of security clearance were pre-requisites for the Badger’s first IT projects. Security has thus been an embedded ethos throughout his working life. Sometimes the constraints imposed by security policy and associated processes were frustrating, but the Badger has learned that a cavalier approach to compliance is never a good idea. Rightly, clients and his employer had zero-tolerance for any kind of security misdemeanour. Indeed, on the rare occasions over the years when a security mishap occurred, the situation was quickly rectified and the culprit dealt with swiftly and definitively. Something similar may be happening behind the scenes following the Signal incident, but the US administration’s public messaging doesn’t imply this to be the case.

Later in his career, the Badger was asked to oversee the operations of his employer’s security department. The head of the department expanded the Badger’s appreciation of security matters pertinent to premises, personal safety, vetting, and cyber threats. The department head emphasised the need to keep in mind just one phrase, namely ‘people are always the weakest link‘, when it came to security doctrine. This has proved to be wise advice over the years, and the recent Signal incident simply reinforces the point.

Today, the use of Signal, WhatsApp, X, and social media platforms is rife in the general public and in political and governmental circles. The Signal incident is a reminder for us all that it takes just one participant to leak the substance of a group chat for there to be a problem, and that there’s a greater chance that someone will spill the beans beyond the group when it has a large number of participants. The incident is also a reminder to think carefully about what you write in a group chat. If you don’t then you only have yourself to blame if something you have written comes back to bite you in the future. Think before you write, always, but most of all remember that technology is not normally the weakest link, people are. That’s right…you and me!

‘Crash, Bang, wallop’ and the need for more Defence spending…

The Badger’s first projects on joining the IT industry involved software and systems design, development, and delivery in the UK Defence sector. The experience provided an excellent foundation on which to build a wider IT career. Problem-solving using innovative software and hardware to provide operational capabilities, working with military people who were focused on getting the job done to rigorous standards, and ensuring deliverables met strict requirements, proved invaluable in cementing the right mindset for success. The military people the Badger encountered were well-trained, capable, and passionate about having operational capabilities that were effective against potential aggressors. Indeed, employers like the Badger’s recruited many of them at the end of their military service because their discipline, professionalism, work ethic, teamwork, and leadership skills were useful beyond just work in the Defence sector.

This was, of course, some decades ago when UK Defence spending was at a level before progressive reductions due to the so-called ‘peace dividend’. Today the UK spends ~2,~3.5, and ~5 times more on Education, NHS, and Welfare Benefits, respectively, than it does on Defence. The Badger’s felt for some time that Defence expenditure must rise, especially as security and defence today relies more than ever on fast-changing, digital information, command, control, communication, and unmanned weapons, as well as the brave soldiers, sailors and airmen who put themselves in harm’s way.

Which brings the Badger to something he does grudgingly, and that’s to thank the President of the USA for demanding NATO countries increase their Defence spending! The Badger’s not a warmonger. He just believes that it’s obvious that increasing UK Defence spending is long overdue. An increase can only be good for the UK’s economy and growing our own truly indigenous digital tech capabilities. Raising Defence spending will create more  high-value tech jobs, boost our natural flair for innovation, and help us hold our own in a fractious, tech-dominated world. That, however, is the limit of thanks to the USA’s democratically elected President and administration.

The Badger was creating a playlist of novelty songs when he saw the public berating and ejection from the White House of  Ukraine’s President on television. Having added ‘Crash, Bang, wallop, what a picture’  and  ‘Hole in the Ground’  to the playlist, the Badger immediately sensed that both had relevance to what he’d seen. The USA administration’s bullying of Ukraine, its coveting of Canada and Greenland, and its crass comments about the warfare experience of its allies, adds weight to why UK Defence expenditure must rise. For the average person in the street this side of the Atlantic, trust is hard-earned, easily lost, and hard to re-establish. Trust that the USA is a reliable ally is rapidly evaporating. More strained relationships with those embarked on a particular style of Making America Great Again looks inevitable, but that’s nothing to fear because history shows we are resilient in the face of adversity.

Social media – in the doghouse again…

Social media platforms are in the doghouse again due to the spread of misinformation, falsehoods, incitement, and hate as a result of the horrendous attack on innocent children in Southport. Media and political rhetoric about the role of social media in the violence and criminality that followed this incident has been predictable. It can be of no surprise that social media was a factor because it’s part of the very fabric of modern life. It’s used by 82.8% of the UK population. Most individuals, businesses, and media, community, and political organisations have a presence on, and actively use, at least one social media platform. Most normal, law-abiding, social media users and organisations will thus have been exposed at some stage to the vitriol, falsehoods, and distorted content that is becoming more and more commonplace on these platforms.

Elon Musk’s war of words with the UK’s Prime Minister, a government minister’s thoughts on X, and a debate about whether we should say goodbye to Mr Musk’s platform,  simply illustrate, the Badger feels, that social media has become more divisive and polarizing than a force for convergence and solutions.  It has disrupted society in just a couple of decades, and it will continue to do so because the platforms are commercial enterprises whose business models and legal status are centred on profiting, without editorial responsibility, from the content their users post. The platforms have become too powerful, and politicians have been like plodding donkeys in dealing with their impact on society.

Social media isn’t all bad and it isn’t going away anytime soon. Handwringing about its role in free speech, something that platforms assert as a defence against regulation, is futile. What’s needed is a lucid articulation of free speech like that given by Rowan Atkinson (Mr Bean) some years ago, followed by aligned, rapid, regulation that a) society’s law-abiding majority can relate to and understand, and b) holds the platforms and their users to account fairly. At the very least, users of a platform must take responsibility for the content they post, and platforms cannot shirk accountability for distributing and making money from content that damages society. Perhaps things will change with the UK’s Online Safety Law now coming into effect? Time, as they say, will tell.

The Badger’s agnostic about social media. He’s never felt that it’s really a good use of his time, but the chances of everyone significantly reducing their addiction to it in today’s world are negligible. But what if they did? The power of platforms would dissipate as their revenues and profits decline, and people would realise they can actually cope and adapt quickly to life without them. Perhaps the riot aftermath of Southport would not have happened? Perhaps it’s time to fight against being addicted slaves? Oops, just remember this is a musing, not an incitement to riot…

A walk in the woods, swarms of drones embodying AI, and fly spray…

A walk in the woods is good for body and soul, especially in the Spring when bluebells abound. Every walk is memorable in some way, as a couple of encounters reminded the Badger recently. The first encounter involved wildlife. A vixen with two cubs emerged from the undergrowth and sat in the middle of the path to stare at a stationary Badger drinking from his water bottle. They were ~3 metres away, unfazed by human presence, and nonchalantly disappeared back into the undergrowth after about a minute. The second encounter happened ten minutes later as the path bisected an open expanse of scrubland. It was with a police officer landing a drone which had been used in a successful search for someone who’d failed to return from walking their dog in the area. ‘That’s a useful bit of kit’, the Badger quipped to the officer. ‘Yep, but a drone swarm would be better’, the officer responded adding that whereas people knew that individual drones are routine tools for many, swarms embodying AI warrant greater public awareness.

Drones vary in shape, size, function, and sophistication. Everyone has some awareness of them through their appearance in many movies (see here for example) over decades. The capabilities of drones imagined in such movies are today either a reality, or soon to be so. Drones are a growth area. Indeed, the UK Government has envisaged  that 900,000 commercial drones could be operating in UK skies by 2030.  Drones have long been tools in many commercial sectors (e.g. agriculture, energy supply, and property marketing), in the media/broadcasting, and with hobbyists and the TikTok generation, and so this vision seems possible. Drones are also already key tools in law enforcement where they help in monitoring major incidents, events, suspects, crime scenes, traffic, and in the search for missing persons. Military use of them is common and rapidly expanding for reconnaissance, intelligence gathering, and lethal force, as readily illustrated in the Ukraine and Middle East conflicts. Military drone use continues to expand (e.g. see here ), and swarms of drones embodying AI will eventually transform  military operations even more dramatically. It thus seems inevitable that drone swarms will eventually become a regular facet of civilian life too.

Personal security and safety advice for when you are away from your home has long centred on being aware of your environment and listening to and observing the behaviour of those around you. With drone swarms on the horizon, we should now be observing and listening to what’s in the sky too! Of course, someone will eventually produce a drone countermeasure for personal use by anyone in the general public. Now that’s an off-the-wall thought to end with, probably triggered by learning that fly spray and insect repellent are essential when walking through woods in the warm Spring sunshine…

The biggest challenge of 2024 and beyond…

This year, 2024, will bring many challenges of one kind or another. Every new year, of course, contains challenges, some which already feature in our awareness, and some which don’t because they tend to emerge from leftfield in due course. The online world, the traditional press, and broadcast media provide plenty of opinion on forthcoming challenges at this time of year, but they tend to highlight things that are already the larger blips on our awareness radar. To start the year off, therefore, the Badger set himself a personal challenge, namely, to decide on the world’s biggest challenge for 2024 and beyond, one that deserves to be a much bigger blip on everyone’s  radar.

The following reality provided the backdrop for the Badger’s deliberations:

  • Life today is dominated by digital technology, global connectivity, the internet, automation, and an addiction to smartphones whose applications provide immediacy of information, anytime, anyplace, for ~75% of the world’s population.
  • Digital evolution continues apace, AI is advancing rapidly and cannot be ignored, international conflict is on the rise, politics is increasingly polarised, and the world order is under considerable strain.
  • Unforeseen natural, humanitarian, financial, and economic crises, are an inevitability.

A front runner for the biggest challenge of 2024 and beyond emerged quickly in the Badger’s thoughts, ostensibly because it had already been bubbling in his mind for months. He quickly concluded that this front runner was indeed the world’s biggest challenge. So, what is it? Put simply, it’s to stem the rise of distrust.

Trust is a fundamental component of cooperation, relationships of all kinds, business, service, and interactions between social groups and different cultures. Society is on a slippery slope to failure without it. Unfortunately, research over the last decade or so shows that our levels of distrust have been progressively rising. Distrust in politicians, governments, corporates, and their leaders continues to rise. Similarly, distrust of the internet and social media continues to grow as we all become more aware of data breaches, fake and weaponised news, misinformation, disinformation, online safety, security and privacy issues, swindles, and cyber-crime. AI seems unlikely to change the trend. The Badger thus feels that stemming the rise of distrust  warrants being the world’s greatest challenge if we want a better society for our children and grandchildren.

Addressing this challenge is not easy, but change starts when lots of people make small adjustments to their behaviour. This year the Badger has resolved to stem his rising distrust of  ‘pushed’ online content that has become the norm in our 24×7 online world. He’s breaking the mould, taking back control, and engaging with it differently and more selectively in 2024. New Year resolutions, of course, have a habit of falling by the wayside. It’s early days, but so far so good…