2025 – A year of ‘Strain and Change’…

The festive season is over, and most people are once again embroiled in the routine of normal life. Many start the year mentally refreshed, physically rested, and game for the next challenge, but some do not. And there’s the rub, to use an idiom from Shakespeare, because those starting the year unprepared for a challenge will surely find this year difficult. Why’s that, especially when every year presents challenges that must be dealt with? Well, the omens for 2025 suggest it’s going to be a particularly testing one across a broad range of fronts. As a relative put it over the holiday period, the world order’s changing fast, there’s disgruntlement with political leaders, AI and disruptive advances in digital tech driven by huge corporations continue unabated, retrenchment from the globalisation that’s been a norm for years  is underway, and so ‘Strain and Change’ will be everywhere in 2025.   Those stepping back into life’s rhythms expecting the status quo and unprepared for challenges are thus likely in for a rude awakening.

With this in mind, the Badger found himself chuckling as he read what the BBC’s Tomorrow’s World TV programme predicted in 1995 for 2025. When Professor Stephen Hawking told that programme that ‘Some of these changes are very exciting, and some are alarming. The one thing we can be sure of is that it will be very different, and probably not what we expect’, little did he (or the Badger) know that the Badger’s last post for 2024 would echo the same sentiment! The Badger started wondering what advice Professor Hawking, who produced many pearls of wisdom, might have given us at the start of a year of ‘Change and Strain’. After a little research, the Badger decided he would simply concatenate two of his memorable pearls of wisdom to say:

It is very important for young people to keep their sense of wonder and keep asking why. It’s a crazy world out there. Be curious. However difficult life may seem, there is always something you can do and succeed at’.

This seems apt in many ways, but especially for today’s always on, social media dominated, digital world where Hawking’s sentiment can be expressed as  ‘Don’t take anything you read, watch, or hear at face value. Be curious, ask questions, and always believe that you can take action to better your situation’. The Badger thinks that ‘Strain and Change’ is the drumbeat of 2025 technologically, nationally, geopolitically, commercially, and economically. Accordingly, whatever challenges lay ahead, they must be faced with the mindset embodied in Professor Hawking’s concatenated words above. As for the Badger? Well, he’s motivated, refreshed, and well prepared. The only status quo he’s anticipating in 2025 is the continuation of timeless, good, vintage music of which Living on an Island is a good example…

The NHS; a super-sized jumbo jet flying with only one engine…

There’s one thing currently dominating the chatter of many people the Badger encounters, and that’s the UK Budget on the 30th October‘How is it right for me to pay more tax for politicians to fritter away, when the Prime Minister doesn’t buy his own clothes or glasses?’ one pensioner commented. The Badger tries to maintain political neutrality, but there’s little doubt that the new UK government has got off to a bumpy start. However, it’s now starting to flesh out its ‘Change’ agenda and also setting expectations regarding the budget. On the former, for example, the government is calling on the nation to ‘help fix our NHS’. As reported in many places, e.g. here, it wants people to share their experiences and ideas given that we are all users of this huge institution employing more than 1.34 million people. The Badger, having had some exposure to NHS IT during his career and as a patient, has thus contributed to ‘help build a health service fit for the future’ via the government’s website here.

The NHS has been a political football for decades. There’s a regular clamour to give it more money. When it gets additional money, however, it never seems to make an impact, other than to fuel clamour for even more funds – at least that’s how it seems to the Badger. The NHS’s use of modern, integrated, IT is woeful, as neatly illustrated by this New Statesman article in March. By IT, the Badger means the systems that support basic operational processes within and across the NHS’s entities, not the diagnostic and robotic tools that get airtime in the media.

People often tell the Badger of their frustrating NHS experiences, most of which involve aspects where IT plays a part. For example, an NHS phlebotomist bemoaned needing 13 different logon/passwords to deal with blood tests. A relation was appalled on receiving a letter confirming a hospital appointment with Audiology when it should have been with Cardiology! A neighbour was dismayed when a consultant at a post-operative outpatient appointment told them they couldn’t find a CT scan ‘on the system’ even though the scan happened 6 weeks previously at the same hospital. A pensioner, referred from a local hospital for urgent follow-up at a regional hospital, enquired after hearing nothing for 2 months only to be told that ‘there’s no record on our system’ of the referral. The list of similar experiences is long.

Building a ‘health service fit for the future’ is like modernising every aspect of an aging, super-sized, jumbo jet while it’s flying with only one temperamental engine. Few government transformation programmes deliver real change to time and budget, but this one must break the mould, or the jumbo will soon spectacularly crash. That’s why the Badger has not only contributed on the website here, but also urges you to do the same regardless of your political views.

The Smartwatch and health care…

Lots of information about the use of smartphones in the UK is available – see here, for example. In 2012, 66% of those aged 16-24 and 5% of those aged 55+ had a smartphone. By 2023 the percentages had become 98% and ~86%, respectively. Indeed, today 80% of those aged 65+ have a smartphone, which reinforces the fact that they have become an essential component of modern life for young and old alike. The main use of smartphones across the whole age spectrum is for messaging, emails, phone calls, internet browsing, social media, weather forecasts, online shopping, finance and banking, and maps/route navigation. Adults rarely leave home without them, and if they do anxiety tends to be higher during the rest of their day!

While younger generations are more welcoming of advances in digital tech, the rapid rise in smartphone use by older age groups since 2012 shows that seniors will embrace new technology that provides them a benefit. Which brings the Badger to the smartphone’s companion, the smartwatch. Across all age groups in the UK today, ~1 in 4 of us have one. Since the game-changing Apple Watch arrived in 2015, more and more of us have been buying them. The adoption trend looks to be following a similar pattern to that of the smartphone since 2012. Unsurprisingly, smartwatch use is greatest in digital native generations (millennials and younger), but the 55+ and 65+ age groups currently account for ~ 20% of UK users. Take up in these age groups seems to be linked to interest in watch functions associated with health monitoring (e.g. heart rate, ECG, blood pressure tracking), wellness, (e.g. sleep, stress, exercise), and emergency alerting (e.g. falls monitoring). By the end of this decade, it seems likely that most of the adult population will have a smartwatch on their wrist regardless of the device’s pros and cons, The versatility, convenience, and health/wellbeing benefits they offer far outweigh the cons, especially for those in ‘senior’ age groups.

But here’s a question. If every adult wears a smartwatch to complement their smartphone within a few years, will the UK’s National Health Service (NHS) integrate the health and wellbeing data from watch functions into patient care to improve operational efficiency, reduce costs, and care? Hmm, the NHS seems quiet on this, but the answer is ‘probably not’ because smartwatches are not certified medical devices. The Badger senses that this might ultimately change, because when he accompanied someone experiencing an atrial fibrillation event to hospital recently, one of the doctors on arrival asked if they could look at any ECG and blood pressure traces captured on their patient’s smartwatch! That’s surely a sign that smartwatches will ultimately have a more important role in an NHS which continues to struggle to be fit for the 21st century…

When is a service not a service?

As companies grow, they reorganise and establish different business units to serve their needs. Often, a number of units must cooperate to deliver contracted services to clients. This cooperation can sometimes prove difficult causing disjoint service delivery and strained relationships with the client. The Badger took many calls during his IT career from frustrated clients who experienced, and were frustrated by, poor cooperation between different units within his company. One call from a client he knew well, however, has long stuck in his memory.

Their call was to complain about constant bickering at service review meetings between two units, one delivering helpdesk, hosting, and support services and the other developing a new business application. They demanded that cooperation between the units improved to provide ‘joined-up’ service coherency, as required by the contract. Action was taken, but what became cemented in the Badger’s memory were the client’s general words about service, namely ‘Service is not a service when it fails to fulfil its intended purpose or meet the needs of users. A service should provide value, convenience, and satisfaction, but if a service provider’s internal problems become visible and are a hinderance then the service has turned into a disservice. The essence of service is not its existence, but its ability to deliver coherently.’

These words, and the context that triggered this client’s call, came to mind when two friends described their recent experiences with the UK’s National Health Service (NHS). One received an outpatient appointment letter from Audiology when they were expecting one from Cardiology! Enquiring revealed that the appointment was indeed with a cardiologist, but the wrong letter template had somehow been used to notify the appointment! The other attended a CT scan appointment arranged months ago only to be told when on the scanner with a canular in their arm that the scan could not proceed because they hadn’t had a prior blood test! The radiologist apologised but said it was common for scans to be aborted for this reason, because departments rarely tell each other – or the patient – that a prior blood test is needed! Having travelled some distance for the scan, the patient was understandably livid at having their time wasted and at having to await notification of a new appointment.

Irrespective of strikes, waiting lists, money, and political posturing, all of which are the mainstay of media reporting about the NHS, it’s no wonder that public satisfaction is at a record low (see here and here) when patients routinely experience interactions similar to these! The words of the Badger’s client resonate. The essence of service is not its existence, but it’s ability to deliver. It’s thus frankly shameful that ‘when it’s the NHS’ has become a valid answer to the question ‘when is a service not a service?’  Without redressing this, oblivion beckons for the NHS and its end-users…

I read the news today, oh boy – The Post Office and Horizon…

Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band was playing as the Badger read some of the recent information about the UK Post Office scandal (here, for example). At the heart of the scandal is the Horizon software from Fujitsu and the fact that between 1999 and 2015 the Post Office wrongly prosecuted (and convicted) over 700 sub-postmasters for theft, false accounting, and fraud when there were shortfalls at their branch. The shortfalls were, in fact, due to faults in Horizon. The miscarriage of justice is huge and, in the Badger’s opinion, a national disgrace.

In 2020 a statutory public enquiry was initiated to establish a clear account of the Horizon failings at the Post Office. It’s ongoing, and lots of material from its public hearings can be found here. At the heart of the scandal, however, is more than just software faults, it’s also the actions of government ministers, senior Post Office executives and employees, and Fujitsu, over more than two decades. As the first line of the final track on Sgt. Pepper’s, ‘A Day in the Life’, rang out while the Badger read Computer Weekly’s guide to the scandal, he greatly empathised with the wronged sub-postmasters who must have read the news every day for the last twenty years and thought, oh boy!

The Badger’s maintained some peripheral awareness of this debacle for a long time, not because he’s ever worked with or for the Post Office or Fujitsu, but because his lengthy career in building, leading, and delivering major IT systems has baked a professional curiosity into his psyche. Basic questions about the contract, the software development process, testing, acceptance, readiness for Go-Live and rollout, and the linkage between service desk and fault identification and fix, have long bubbled in the recesses of his mind. The public enquiry might ultimately answer such questions in due course.

But here’s the thing. Software and systems always contain faults. When the Post Office first introduced Horizon for use in 1999, it was at a time when software practices were mature, organisations were focusing on ensuring their systems were ‘Millenium Ready’, and there was significant momentum in outsourcing and offshoring. If the evidence was that Horizon had at that time a large number of outstanding faults, then the professionalism, competence, and motivations of everyone involved in its Go-Live/rollout decision are questionable. This decision, after all, started the ball rolling on the woeful events and disgraceful corporate behaviour that ruined innocent people’s lives over subsequent decades.

Horizon is still in use with the Post Office today. This is a reminder for us all that many systems that make our world function today use software written decades ago. Faults will always happen, and most organisations deal with them and their consequences professionally, responsibly, and fairly. The Post Office debacle, however, makes you wonder ‘or do they?’

The biggest challenge of 2024 and beyond…

This year, 2024, will bring many challenges of one kind or another. Every new year, of course, contains challenges, some which already feature in our awareness, and some which don’t because they tend to emerge from leftfield in due course. The online world, the traditional press, and broadcast media provide plenty of opinion on forthcoming challenges at this time of year, but they tend to highlight things that are already the larger blips on our awareness radar. To start the year off, therefore, the Badger set himself a personal challenge, namely, to decide on the world’s biggest challenge for 2024 and beyond, one that deserves to be a much bigger blip on everyone’s  radar.

The following reality provided the backdrop for the Badger’s deliberations:

  • Life today is dominated by digital technology, global connectivity, the internet, automation, and an addiction to smartphones whose applications provide immediacy of information, anytime, anyplace, for ~75% of the world’s population.
  • Digital evolution continues apace, AI is advancing rapidly and cannot be ignored, international conflict is on the rise, politics is increasingly polarised, and the world order is under considerable strain.
  • Unforeseen natural, humanitarian, financial, and economic crises, are an inevitability.

A front runner for the biggest challenge of 2024 and beyond emerged quickly in the Badger’s thoughts, ostensibly because it had already been bubbling in his mind for months. He quickly concluded that this front runner was indeed the world’s biggest challenge. So, what is it? Put simply, it’s to stem the rise of distrust.

Trust is a fundamental component of cooperation, relationships of all kinds, business, service, and interactions between social groups and different cultures. Society is on a slippery slope to failure without it. Unfortunately, research over the last decade or so shows that our levels of distrust have been progressively rising. Distrust in politicians, governments, corporates, and their leaders continues to rise. Similarly, distrust of the internet and social media continues to grow as we all become more aware of data breaches, fake and weaponised news, misinformation, disinformation, online safety, security and privacy issues, swindles, and cyber-crime. AI seems unlikely to change the trend. The Badger thus feels that stemming the rise of distrust  warrants being the world’s greatest challenge if we want a better society for our children and grandchildren.

Addressing this challenge is not easy, but change starts when lots of people make small adjustments to their behaviour. This year the Badger has resolved to stem his rising distrust of  ‘pushed’ online content that has become the norm in our 24×7 online world. He’s breaking the mould, taking back control, and engaging with it differently and more selectively in 2024. New Year resolutions, of course, have a habit of falling by the wayside. It’s early days, but so far so good…

The delivery of letters…a pre-Christmas musing

You never know what will catch your eye or pique your interest when you browse in a charity shop. Two weeks ago, the Badger sheltered from a downpour in one, and the ‘The Post Office went to war’, a 94-page pamphlet published by His Majesty’s (George VI) Stationery Office in 1946, caught his eye. In good condition for its age, it describes how the GPO – the public service providing the UK’s letter, parcel, telegraphy, and phone services during World War II and until the late 1960s – actually worked during wartime. The Badger was drawn to it because, after service in the British Army, a close relative became a GPO postman and delivered letters and parcels to their local community from the late 1940s until the late 1960s. They enjoyed the work, the camaraderie, and interacting with customers while out delivering the mail. They took great pride in wearing their GPO uniform, and in delivering the mail reliably.

The Badger bought the item for 50p and subsequently read it from cover to cover. It was a revelation. Did you know, for example, that during World War II the GPO managed to deliver letters and parcels posted in the UK to recipients in the British Isles in two days, even when sorting offices and infrastructure had been bombed, and even when the location of recipients was transient due to the war effort and housing damage? That’s an achievement, especially when the technology for the handling, distribution, and delivery of the mail at the time bears no comparison with that of today. A little research via the postalmuseum.org reveals that the cost of a stamp as a proportion of the weekly average wage is almost the same today as it was in those times. It also reveals that the number of people actually delivering letters and parcels as a public service is much the same today as it was then. Has today’s modern technology significantly improved the time it takes for a letter to land on your doormat? Hmm, probably not.

A friend living in Northern England phoned last week. They mentioned that they’d posted a Christmas card first-class to the Badger. Our postman delivered the card this morning, a week after it was posted. Draw your own conclusions, especially as the postal public service ecosystem today is markedly different to that when the GPO existed, but surely something’s amiss when today’s tech-rich society cannot match or better the letter delivery of a bygone era with about the same number of employees and stamp price?

Christmas is now just a few days away. Have a happy Christmas however you celebrate the occasion, but please remember that family and friends, especially those who may be vulnerable, should always take priority in your thoughts…not Christmas cards that haven’t arrived due to postal delays!

Marmite, IT systems…and the NHS at 75

Two young mums and their toddlers were chatting in front of the shelves holding Marmite at the local supermarket. As the Badger politely reached between them for a jar, one mum grumbled ‘Yuk. You shouldn’t eat that stuff; it’s horrible’, and the other added tartly that ‘Supermarkets shouldn’t be allowed to sell it’. Supressing an urge to argue, the Badger saw the seriousness on their faces, took a jar, and moved on. If people think supermarkets should be barred from selling Marmite, then there’s no hope for society!

While cogitating on the way home, the Badger concluded that Marmite and the UK’s National Health Service (NHS) have something in common – the ability to divide and polarise opinions. How did the NHS come into this? Well, the seed was sown in the Badger’s brain by an early morning radio news programme during which an NHS interviewee highlighted how much time medics waste having to log on to different IT systems to treat their patients. Little seems to have changed since early 2020 when a Health Secretary said ‘It is frankly ridiculous how much time our doctors and nurses waste logging on to multiple systems. Too often outdated technology slows down and frustrates staff. Other interviewees bemoaned NHS vacancies, waiting lists, delays to patients being discharged from hospital, and workforce strikes over pay. The seed was thus sown for the Badger to cogitate on the NHS, especially as it celebrates 75 years of existence on 5th July 2023.

Then this seed grew further when the Badger took a call from his cousin as he reached the supermarket. His cousin is recovering at home after an operation. Their NHS consultant advised that the waiting time for their operation could be six months, and so, instead of waiting in debilitating pain, they dipped into their savings and had their operation privately just two weeks later. The Badger’s brain was thus already cogitating on the NHS as he approached the Marmite shelves.

The Badger likes Marmite and the NHS, a huge, complex organisation employing over 1.3m people that has a special place in the public’s affection because we are all users and it’s free at the point of use. Unfortunately, perpetual transformations have long been strangling its vital signs and its service to patients, making it a political and ideological football and the centre of shrill media outcry. Current struggles as it approaches its 75th birthday imply that it is systemically crumbling in its current form, and something more fundamental must happen to make it fit for the rest of the 21st century. That, of course, is just the outcome of a cogitation on the way home from a supermarket with a jar of Marmite. One thing’s certain, however. Marmite and the NHS will divide opinions and generate highly charged debate for years to come…

Computers, systems, satellites and…potholes!

A couple of weeks ago, the Badger’s saw OneWeb’s announcement that it was to launch the 36 satellites completing their first-generation Low Earth Orbit constellation on the 26th March 2023. Earlier this week the launch from a Space Centre in India took place successfully and the Badger mentally cheered all the engineers and computing professionals involved. This achievement has computers and  ‘systems’ at its heart, and this fact coloured the Badger’s thoughts as he left home to walk to the local shops. By the time he returned, however, positivity about computers and ‘systems’ relating to satellites had been replaced by gloom about ‘systems’ for fixing potholes on roads!

The route to the shops means navigating a T junction between a busy side road and a main thoroughfare. The approach to the junction is heavily potholed for about 30 metres. The surface, which has many of the different types of crater set out in the RAC’s Pothole Guide, is a danger to pedestrians, cyclists, motor cyclists, and car drivers alike. It’s been this way for a very long time, making it a wonderful  example of the pothole blight  infecting UK roads. Reports to the County Council have led to monthly visits by a repair crew who only patch a small number of holes every time.  

As the Badger walked by, a repair crew was patching a few holes again, and a lady was demanding to know why some holes were being patched but others, equally dangerous, were not. The workmen told her that ‘the central computer’ produces their worksheet and that they only fix, and get paid for, what’s on it. ‘Don’t blame us, blame the computer’, the workmen asserted bluntly. The Badger walked quickly by, thinking that the ‘system’ – the overall combination of process, people, IT, contracting, finance, quality, and compliance – was the problem, not the ‘the computer’.  

On returning from the shops, the repair crew and the lady had gone. A few potholes had been patched, but after three visits by a repair crew in the first three months of this year the road remains a danger to road users and pedestrians, especially at night. On reaching home, the Badger cogitated over a coffee and concluded two things. The first was that if motor vehicles are required to have annual MOT roadworthy tests, then road surfaces should also be required to have some kind of regular safety certification. The second was that for a country that has a computer and ‘systems’ pedigree that can put and operate satellites in space, it’s ‘systems’ for the repair of potholes on its roads are shameful. Although computers get conveniently blamed for many things in today’s world, it’s worth remembering that ‘systems’, which are much more than just computers, are more often the culprit.

Young people regard scientists as trusted voices in society…

According to new research conducted for British Science Week which runs to 20th March, most young people feel that scientists need to do more to engage them with science. The research, involving surveys of 2000 14-to18 year olds and 2000 adults about their perspectives of science, scientists, and trust in different societal groups, provides some interesting but not unexpected insights. The comment ‘From this research, it’s clear that young people regard scientists as trusted voices in society, more so than politicians, journalists, or influencers’ made by Katherine Mathieson, the Chief Executive of the British Science Association (BSA), resonated strongly with the Badger.  

Young people’s regard for scientists as trusted voices in society has been reinforced by the work, raised media profile, and clear, honest, and articulate  communications of Professor’s Chris Whitty, Jonathan van Tam, Sarah Gilbert, and many other scientists from public and commercial organisations, during the COVID pandemic. Young people have also heard one of their own generation, Greta Thunberg, frequently tell politicians and journalists ’Don’t listen to me, listen to the scientists’. They regularly see the stark contrast between ‘facts’ from scientists and ‘spin’ from politicians and the media. It’s perhaps not surprising, therefore, that youngsters trust scientists more than politicians when, for example, only 16% (103 out of 650) of elected UK Members of Parliament (MP) have any science, engineering, or mathematics background or interest, and the other 84% have an education dominated by politics, law, economics, history, and philosophy.   

Regarding scientists as a trusted voice in society is a good thing. If politicians, journalists, and social media influencers want to improve their reputations and be trusted on a par with scientists then they probably need more scientists and engineers in their ranks. After all, everything we use in society wouldn’t be there without the work, knowledge, and ingenuity of scientists, engineers and mathematicians.

Last year saw an unprecedented growth in young people wanting to take science subjects at university. This upswing looks likely to continue. Indeed, the Badger’s nephew is considering going to university in 2023 to study a science subject because, as he puts it, his ambition is to ultimately ‘be a leading expert in something important that impacts society’. Currently, however, his thoughts are wavering a little because science subjects are ‘hard’ and many of his friends are preferring ‘easier’ subjects. The Badger, however, is confident that his nephew will decide on a ‘hard’ subject. Why? Because this highly principled lad wants to be a scientist and be seen by others to be part of a community that is seen by his peers as a bastion of trust in future society. British Science Week will hopefully inspire other young people along similar lines, because the never-ending chaos of our world needs trustworthy voices more than ever before.