Future-gazing while eating fish in Riyadh…

The Badger visited Riyadh with some members of his London-based project team. The team was developing the SARIE Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) computer system for the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA). We stayed at the Riyadh Intercontinental Hotel, the normal base for short visits to meet client staff and Kingdom-based project staff. The work schedule for the visit was intense because the project was at a crucial stage in its delivery. On the penultimate night of the visit, the hotel had a ‘fish night’. The Badger and his companions duly booked a table for what turned out to be a memorable meal. It took place outside under a night sky full of twinkling stars in near 30C heat. Riyadh is in the desert 250 miles from the nearest seaport, and so it felt a little surreal seeing not only unfamiliar fresh fish on a mountain of crushed ice, but also choosing one to eat! This was more than 25 years ago.

Unsurprisingly for a group of relaxing IT professionals, we future-gazed while eating our fish and drinking alcohol-free fizzy apple juice – ‘Saudi Champagne’. Mobile phones at the time provided voice communication and SMS messaging. They were rudimentary compared with today’s smartphones, and we knew that the new one in our hand would be usurped by a newer model within weeks. Communication network technology, internet use, and IT were high growth areas, and the PCs and laptops of the time, see here for example, had nowhere near the capabilities taken for granted today.

Three areas dominated our future-gazing during the meal. The first was MMS (Multimedia Messaging Service). Would it actually arrive, be useful, and popular? (It arrived in 2002). The second was off-the-shelf, reusable, software products and kernels. Would they decimate bespoke software development and speed up systems development for clients? (They did. Software has become commoditised). The third was outsourcing. Would it change the IT industry and stifle innovation and technical creativity? (It has, although views on innovation and creativity vary). We debated affably as we ate. We did not foresee the tech and online world that has emerged to be the global critical infrastructure of personal, business, governmental, and military life today!

With the Middle East in the headlines and tech CEOs savaged while testifying at a US Senate hearing, the Badger wonders what discussion he and his companions would have during a ‘fish night’ in Riyadh today.  One area would inevitably be AI and given the history of the last 25 years of digital revolution, whether its dark side would eventually overwhelm its benefits. With general points from the Senate hearings like ‘Because for all the upside, the dark side is too great to live with’ (made by Senator Lindsey Graham) rattling in his head, the Badger thinks that the dark side of AI alone would dominate the discussion and make the conversation even livelier than it was 25 years ago!  

What development has had the most detrimental impact on society in the last 20 years?

The Badger was asked the question ‘What development has had the most detrimental impact on society in the last 20 years?’ during a conversation with a youngster who’s just started the final year of their university degree course. The conversation was centred on the Badger’s experience in the IT industry and was primarily focused on helping the youngster not only look  beyond completing their degree, but also decide whether to stay at university for a higher degree or move into industry to bolster their immediate income. As the Badger described some of the dynamic technological changes encountered throughout his own career, the youngster paused for a moment, pursed their lips, frowned, and then unexpectedly asked this question.

The Badger was taken aback. After what seemed like a prolonged and embarrassing silence, but was really just a few seconds, the Badger took the easy option and answered with a bland ‘I don’t know. Different generations will probably have different views.’ The youngster smiled and chided him for being cleverly uncontentious! They then answered  their own question, and their answer took the Badger completely by surprise. Why? Because he did not expect what he heard from a Generation Z person who is completely digital-native with no experience of life without the internet, personal computers, social media, or mobile phones.

‘Social media is the development that has had the most detrimental impact’, they proclaimed. They contended that social media has developed such that its content is the  embodiment of 7 R’s – rage, rumour, rackets, rubbish, robbers, retail, and revenue – which is growing to be ever more corrosive to the fabric of society. They voiced their distrust of the likes of Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and X (formerly Twitter), and expressed  concern that users of such platforms are naïve about their impact on personal privacy and social stability. Their final assertion was that social media has had the most detrimental impact on the world in the last 20 years because it has undermined law and order, respect for others, encroached on privacy, and enabled the immediacy of widespread fraud and misinformation. The Badger, who was a little surprised at hearing this from a digital native of Generation Z, quickly refocused the conversation on the youngster’s post-graduate aspirations!

Whether you share the youngster’s view or not, history suggests that some developments which change society are lauded during their time, but ultimately prove to be devastating in the long run. For example, fossil-fuels revolutionised life in the 20th Century, but they have had a damaging impact on the sustainability of life on our planet and are now shunned. The Badger’s undecided whether social media, a once exciting early 21st Century development, falls into this category, but if you want some fun at a multi-generational gathering of friends or family then ask the youngster’s question. The result is almost guaranteed not to be what you expect…

Gas boiler, heat pump…net-zero fatigue…

A smartphone ping announced the arrival of an email from the Badger’s energy provider. It contained a marketing pitch regarding the replacement of home gas boilers with air-source heat pumps. The Badger had already seen a similar pitch on social media, and read the many comments left by others. The email was deleted because, like those commenting on social media, he will not be replacing his home’s reliable gas boiler until the end of its serviceable life, which is still many years away.

Does that mean the Badger doesn’t care about achieving net-zero and green issues? It certainly does not. Like most with children and grandchildren, he’s very conscious of the importance of such issues. He’s simply being realistic and objective, all be it that the incessant net-zero evangelism from UK politicians, activists, and experts, and the actions of Extinction Rebellion and Just Stop Oil, means that some personal ‘net-zero fatigue’ has set in! This fatigue seems to be becoming more widespread in the general public, ostensibly because the implementation of net-zero policies has reached the point where people are starting to realise the cost to them and the impact on their lives. It appears that grumbling and push back is building, and that most people will not be replacing their gas boiler for a heat pump in the foreseeable future!

Ditching a gas boiler for a heat pump is simply not an option for many, which is hardly surprising when the UK has the oldest housing stock in Europe, with ~80% built before 1990, and 20% built before 1919. Converting this housing for heat pumps is simply unrealistic for most who live in it, especially when the raw installation cost not only surpasses the annual income from the maximum UK State Pension, but also amounts to about a third of the annual income of those earning the average UK wage. It’s not realistic to believe that people will prioritise net-zero above immediate family needs and channel a significant portion of their income to invest in a heat pump, especially when its running costs are not dissimilar to that of a gas boiler.

Although our need to achieve net-zero is clear, a transition from oil and gas needs to be realistic and affordable, targets set by politicians are never met (cf. UK Smart Meters),  and there will be alternatives to heat pumps in the coming years. The Badger’s thus not installing a heat pump any time soon just to help net-zero. It’s not a suitable or economically viable option for his home. If this is a sign that the Badger’s suffering from ‘net-zero fatigue’, is there a cure? Yes, a social and political shift away from evangelistic net-zero idealism to common-sense, pragmatism, and transition realism. But with a UK General Election due in the next year, the chance of any cure seems remote…

‘Children are the world’s most valuable resource and its best hope for the future’

Some days you see something that tugs at your heart strings and makes you sad. One such day recently was when the Badger walked the leafy lanes where he played as a child.  Two vans and three burly men with chain saws were cutting down two magnificent horse-chestnut trees  – trees that the Badger and his childhood friends used to not only play beneath, but also climb to find the best conkers! The trees are still healthy, but they are being felled to make way for a new housing development. The sadness at seeing one of his favourite childhood haunts being dismembered was real.  It was a reminder that change is inevitable, that progress isn’t always for the good, and that the Badger’s childhood was very different to that of most children today.

Since the time the young Badger climbed these conker trees, much of the world has become healthier, better educated, and wealthier. The internet, computing, communication, and social media revolution has changed both social norms and the nature of childhood. As children, the Badger’s generation routinely climbed trees without adult supervision, ropes, or protective equipment, rode bicycles without wearing a helmet, and interacted with every type of creature in nature on an almost daily basis. We took the scrapes, bumps, and bruises that came with this freedom in our stride.  Our freedom was real. We were naturally innovative and imaginative when playing games with playmates, and we problem-solved and learned from each other without thinking about it.   

Childhood today is more cosseted, more organised, more risk averse when it comes to unsupervised outdoor play, and it is shaped and heavily influenced by modern tech and social media. The Badger thinks childhood is actually more dangerous today! Why? Well, whereas there was no online world when the Badger was a child, today it is a major aspect of a child’s life, as an OFCOM report illustrates.  This exposes them to cyberspace threats that simply didn’t exist when the Badger climbed conker trees and the tech world that we know today was science fiction.  Accordingly, the Badger believes the Online Safety Bill , currently in its final stages in the UK Parliament, is a good thing and long overdue.

The values of our country are fundamentally family values, ones which protect children and the vulnerable from those that would do them harm. These were the values when the Badger was a child, and it should still be that way in today’s online world. Our values and our way of life are also determined by us, and not by the huge digital tech corporations that dominate today’s world. John F. Kennedy said, ‘ Children are the world’s most valuable resource and its best hope for the future’. The UK’s Online Safety Bill is thus doing a good thing; it’s protecting the world’s most valuable resource…

India, a technological force to be reckoned with…

Legend has it that Buzz Aldrin played a cassette of Frank Sinatra’s ‘Fly me to the moon’ when the Apollo 11 lander touched down on the Moon in 1969. If that’s true, then it was the first song ever played on the lunar surface.  This trivia came to mind when India’s  unmanned Chandrayaan-3 mission recently landed at the Moon’s South Pole, just days after Russia’s Luna-25 failed attempting the same feat. News of the Indian landing made the Badger wonder if the lander had played Bollywood music on touch down! Whether it did or not is, of course, immaterial. What is material is that India has cemented its position as a force to be reckoned with in space technology, and that its achievement will reverberate for decades to come.  

The Badger first visited India in the late 1990s when offshoring software development and IT services was rapidly accelerating. This first visit, as a member of a UK team performing due diligence on a small Bangalore company being strategically purchased to grow into a major offshore delivery centre, changed and expanded the Badger’s mindset. On the flight to India, the Badger had been sceptical that he would observe capabilities similar to the norm in the UK, Europe, or North America. On the return flight, that scepticism had reduced significantly because he’d witnessed impressive technical prowess from people who were young, well educated, motivated, hungry to learn, hungry to better themselves and their families, and hungry for success for their team and country.  

During the trip, the Badger visited a lush, modern, technology campus housing mainly call centres for some large UK financial services companies. It was buzzing, well organised, and the people were articulate and passionate about their work.  Most call handlers were university graduates. They were paid a good salary by India standards, but a fraction of what was paid in the UK, Europe or North America. The campus visit, and days spent with the technical designers and programmers at the company being purchased, opened the Badger’s mind. India’s software and IT talent could not be ignored, and it was good value for money.  On the flight home, the Badger knew that capitalising on that talent by offshoring to India was essential, and that making it happen across an established UK IT business would be a challenge.  

Much has happened in the intervening years. Today, Indian companies like TCS and Infosys are ranked in the Top 10 global IT companies (none of which are headquartered in the UK). All the Top 10 have sizeable capabilities based in India. The Chandrayaan-3 moon landing thus further illustrates the depth and diversity of India’s technological prowess. India will undoubtedly be a technological force to be reckoned with for decades to come. Can the same be said for the UK? Now that’s an interesting question…

Change starts with the individual…

The amount of electricity and gas Kilowatt Hours the Badger uses has reduced by 12% and 21%, respectively, over the last year. He’s also used 10% less vehicle fuel. The reductions come from small behavioural adjustments, rather than wholesale lifestyle change. The Badger’s pleased because the savings are helping the planet, and because they illustrate the impact of taking personal responsibility for ‘change’ which is, after all, one of the perpetual rhythms of life which humans have coped with for millennia.

Feeling good about his energy reduction helping the planet, the Badger visited his community’s monthly street market where stalls of locally produced goods, food, and drink interleave with those of charities and campaign organisations. Good weather meant the market was busy. As the Badger nonchalantly browsed the stalls, he lingered a little too long at a climate campaign stall. He was cornered by the stall’s hosts, a mother and daughter who were vaguely known to the Badger as neighbours from further along the road where he lives. Not wishing to be rude, the Badger listened politely to their pitch about the need for more government action in climate issues and moving away from fossil fuels to save the planet.

They asked if the Badger agreed that reducing  the world’s dependency on fossil fuels was beneficial, and if he soon planned to drive an electric car. He answered Yes and No, respectively, and added that a) he wasn’t sure that the whole-life environmental impact of current electric cars was positive, b) that he expected to drive his trusty diesel SUV for the foreseeable future, and c) that he was already adjusting his behaviours to benefit the planet regardless of campaigns by environmentalists! They seemed a little stunned. The Badger asked if changes to their individual behaviours had reduced, for example, their own energy consumption over the past year, and, looking rather sheepish, they admitted they didn’t know. They disengaged when the stall became busier, and the Badger sidled away to continue browsing through the market.

Walking home afterwards, a car pulled up and asked if the Badger wanted a lift. It was the pair from the climate change stall. The Badger declined the offer on the basis that the exercise was good for both him and the planet. The mother grinned and said ‘You’re a proper ecowarrior! You made us realise that we really should be doing more adjustments to our own day to day behaviour to reinforce pressing our climate message to others’.

The Badger’s been called many things over the years, but never an ecowarrior! Just remember, change starts with the individual and is not the responsibility of others. You too are an ecowarrior if you make small behavioural adjustments that will ultimately benefit our planet. Life is, after all, a journey of continual change, and our inherent individual capacity to change is why our species has come to dominate the planet…

Big Tech: Is it in turmoil?

The Badger joined a local community group on Facebook during the pandemic. This week he left it because postings have become dominated by niff-naff and trivia.  Although it’s been interesting to see how posts to the group have changed over time, the Badger’s now got better things to do than see content that ranges from requests for spare cardboard boxes to cat-sitting!  What’s this got to do with Big Tech in turmoil? The link is subtle, but it’s real; it’s the act of change and leaving.

Big Tech – a convenient phrase for companies that provide online services that the public uses in daily life – has been announcing significant job cuts over the last six months. Meta, for example, has recently announced further major layoffs to take effect by the end of April and May 2023, and, as the Badger writes,  Amazon have announced a cut of another 9000 jobs.  According to Computerworld, the pace of job cuts will rise across the entire tech sector throughout this year. It’s a view that the Badger shares.

Many have commented on the reasons for these layoffs – see, for example, here – but fundamentally it’s really simple. Big Tech is having to change to adapt to a new world, market, and economic reality. Change is painful, just look at Twitter, especially for those who lose their jobs with their employer. What’s happening with Big Tech, however, is just part of the circle of life for any commercial organisation, large or small, in any market sector.

Big Tech is not immune to having to deal with decisions taken during the pandemic on staffing levels that haven’t worked out. Nor is it immune to the cutbacks and changing behaviours of the consumers, businesses, and advertisers that underpin their business models. It’s not immune to ever-growing competition from peers and rivals, tightening regulation, inflation and rising costs, and the need for adopting cleverer automation to keep operational efficiency at a peak. The latter alone drives a need for fewer people. The pandemic, geopolitical events, and changing world markets have made some kind of reset in Big Tech companies inevitable with some employees, as always, part of the fallout.

So, is Big Tech in turmoil? No. It’s just going through a part of the circle of life that all businesses go through. It’s worth remembering that when big oak trees shed their acorns, some of those acorns go on to become new oak trees. Some of those losing their jobs will start new businesses that flourish, and others will go on to spread their knowledge and experience more widely through taking new jobs outside the tech sector. The Badger believes there’s a certainty for those being let go in Big Tech’s reset, namely, that they as individuals will cope. Why? Because as the dominant species on our planet, humans are fundamentally resilient, adaptable, and resourceful.

‘Leaders aren’t snowflakes that melt away under pressure…’

A new Group CEO arrived with a mandate to grow the enterprise and take it to a new level of performance and market success. They drove change from day one, quickly gaining a fearsome reputation for being tough, highly focused on business detail,  and being harsh on people. Unpopular change fuelled gossip across the workforce that the CEO was a self-centred, uncompromising bully who fired anyone who underperformed. Against this backdrop, the Badger, a young project manager, quaked in his boots when he heard that the CEO wanted to meet him and review his project.

The Badger quickly realised during this review that the CEO was professional, numbers and action-oriented, and relentlessly focused on achieving success. They could be charming but also very direct, and they demanded a high standard of performance from those they dealt with. They expected everyone to know the performance of their function, business unit, or project in detail. Many people found this intimidating because it was different to the approach of the CEO’s predecessor. The Badger survived the review. He learned that the CEO was not to be feared if a strong individual performance, an action mentality, and a robust grasp of the detail were conveyed. Was the CEO a bully? No, just a strong, direct personality with a difficult job who demanded the best from their staff.

Two weeks ago, the Badger met a forlorn young lady leading a team of software engineers for coffee.  It was her first team leading role on a long running project, and she confided that she felt she was being bullied and treated harshly by her project manager over the performance of her team. The Badger recounted the anecdote above, and recommended  that she consider possible parallels between the CEO and her PM. Last week she emailed to say that she’d upped her game, her dealings with the PM had improved, and that they weren’t a bully!

Yesterday the Badger and the young team leader met again for coffee. She was despondent. One of her team, a new University graduate, has complained to the HR function that she is bullying them. Shocked by the accusation, and concerned about HR’s involvement, she asked for some advice. The Badger told her not to become distracted, to let due process take its course, and to continue to demand high standards of performance from her team. She thanked the Badger for listening, and simply said ‘In the last two weeks I’ve learned that leaders aren’t snowflakes that melt away under pressure, that claiming something is true doesn’t make it true, and that you have to be tough, unemotional, and resilient to make things happen’. This young lady is learning fast from personal experience. She is developing the no-nonsense, resilient leadership attributes that our modern and rapidly changing world will always need.

From slide rule to calculator app to…ChatGPT?

On a shelf in the Badger’s home office is a pristine British Thornton slide rule in its original case. It hasn’t been used in years. In fact, it’s hardly been used since the Badger bought it during his first week as a university student because it was a recommended tool for his subject. Various friends have poked fun at it over the years, jauntily calling it – and the Badger – a relic rendered obsolete by first electronic calculators, and latterly apps on smartphones. Nevertheless, a friend recently gifted the Badger a vintage slide rule instruction pamphlet to ‘complement this Museum piece’! The gift was accepted graciously. It heightened awareness not only that anyone born since the 1970s will never have used a slide rule, but also that the student Badger had actually hastened this tool’s demise by buying a pocket electronic calculator as soon as they became widely available and affordable.

The slide rule’s 300-year reign as a personal calculating tool ended abruptly in the mid-1970s. By the time the Badger had completed his degree, every student on his course had bought a Sinclair Cambridge, Sinclair Scientific, or Texas Instruments electronic calculator. When youngsters josh about the slide rule on his shelf, the Badger reminds them that Buzz Aldrin used one during the Apollo 11 moon mission, and scientists and engineers used them when designing, building, and manufacturing the first computers. They are often amazed, but always respond by highlighting the virtues of the calculator app on their smartphone.

Reading the vintage slide rule pamphlet reminded the Badger that his purchase of an electronic calculator as an undergraduate was an early part of the microelectronics revolution that’s changed every aspect of life since. Reflecting today, it seems amazing that personal calculating devices have morphed from a tactile, non-electronic slide rule into a calculator app on a smartphone reliant on microelectronics to function. Of course, what’s happened to personal calculation devices is merely a specific example of the massive impact that rapid technological advance has on our lives.

Today the Badger’s slide rule is a decorative bygone. His most recent electronic pocket calculator is also infrequently used and languishes in the desk draw because the calculator app on his smartphone has become his default pocket calculator. But even use of this app is waning! Why? Because just speaking to Google or Alexa does straightforward maths. The days of needing a calculator app thus seem numbered, especially if AI like ChatGPT ultimately has the impact that Microsoft anticipates. So, here’s a thought to end with. While the Badger’s slide rule will always be an antique talking point sitting on someone’s shelf, an obsolete calculator app will just disappear into the ether and have no decorative value whatsoever. Hmm, perhaps the Badger needs to stop reading the instruction pamphlet and drink less coffee…

Better Days…

As a New Year beckons, our thoughts naturally turn to what the future holds. Normally there’s a modicum of optimism that things will be better in the year ahead. The Badger’s found, however, that peering into the future is more challenging than usual given the prevailing uncertain and difficult times.  While he listened to a favourite music playlist and scratched his head as he read various online commentaries about tech trends for 2023 (here, here, and here, for example), the Badger found himself deciding that what most people wanted in the year ahead could be summed up in just three words, namely:

  • Trust that online information and news is trustworthy, that social media giants are held to account, and that our digital world is safe, secure, and lawful.
  • Stability in a day-to-day life that is sensibly protected against the downsides of globalisation, global supply chains, fractious geopolitics, and the weaponization of commodities and information. 
  • Confidence that public and commercial entities are not playing fast and loose with our personal data, and that they respect, value, and preserve individual privacy while using digital technology to make life better.  

Sadly, the Badger found that he’s not optimistic there’ll be much progress on these ‘wants’ in the year ahead. This created a dilemma! How could he write something at the end of the year that captured hope and a tinge of optimism? The eureka moment was provided by the playing music and the opening lyrics of the next song from the playlist:  

And you ask me what I want this year
And I try to make this kind and clear
Just a chance that maybe we’ll find better days
‘Cause I don’t need boxes wrapped in strings
And desire and love and empty things
Just a chance that maybe we’ll find better days

So take these words
And sing out loud
‘Cause everyone is forgiven now
‘Cause tonight’s the night the world begins again

The Goo Goo Dolls melodic song ‘Better Days’  captures what the Badger feels that he and many others hope for in the year ahead, simply better days. So, if you make new year resolutions – and this applies regardless of whether you’re an ordinary citizen, a politician, an entrepreneur, a business executive, a scientist or engineer, self-employed, or economically inactive – then please shape them to make tomorrow a better day than today. Finally, just remember this; go forward with optimism – because the world can be a better place than it is today!