The car park at Polesden Lacey was busy. Good weather and the school holidays had brought out young and old alike to visit the extensive grounds, gardens, and historic house. Finding a space in the car park looked to be a challenge, but a car backed out and the Badger was quickly able to manoevure his trusty diesel SUV into the vacated area between tall hedges and a Volkswagen ID3 EV. On disembarking for the short walk to the estate’s entrance, the sight of the Badger’s aged, diesel vehicle next to an EV typifying the future of motoring seemed rather incongruous, especially as he’d listened to a programme on EVs and the UK 2030 ban on new petrol/diesel cars during the drive to Polesden.
The sun is setting on fossil-fuelled engines as the dominant means of propulsion for personal motoring, but are battery powered EVs the future? The Badger thinks it’s healthy to maintain some scepticism, to avoid the herd mentality, and to stay objective in the face of evangelism, campaigning, and politicking when it comes to answering such a question. The radio programme had sown the seeds for the Badger to cogitate on the topic, but the treasures of Polesden Lacey’s house and gardens meant these seeds didn’t burst into life until stopping for a picnic lunch on a bench nestled under the house’s South Lawn colonnade.
The UK 2030 ban on new petrol/diesel cars is just six years away, and the motor industry has been ramping up battery powered EV production and discontinuing petrol/diesel models for some time. After considering things holistically, the Badger thinks the 2030 ban will be relaxed. Why? Well, foremost because this is a massive transformation, few of which ever meet their targets. The number of EVs registered in the UK is rising, but they remain economically out of reach for those of modest means. The public charging infrastructure is problematic, the economic case for owning an EV isn’t as attractive as it was, and the Lithium required for EV batteries requires global production to rise threefold by 2025 and six-fold by 2030. Factors like the forced extension of London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone, range anxiety, vehicle weight, battery life, and battery fires (e.g. see here, here, and here) are also making people think harder before moving to a battery-powered EV.
A lot can change in six years, but the Badger believes the 2030 ban on new petrol/diesel car will be relaxed. Of all the cars in the Polesden car park, just a handful were EVs. Progress in their adoption is slow. Furthermore, on returning to his car for the journey home, the owner of the VW ID3 EV parked next to him was on the phone to a recovery company. Are battery powered EVs the future? The prudent answer is…perhaps…
